India, Canada Hold Top-Level Talks to Mend Frayed Ties
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Foreign ministers of Canada and India held a phone conversation on Sunday in their highest-level contact since Prime Minister Mark Carney took office, as both nations seek to repair strained ties.
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Yahoo
16 minutes ago
- Yahoo
‘The market is as clueless as the Fed': Why this trader says stocks could continue to do well for months
As traders brace for a fresh round of U.S. inflation data this week, a new twist is developing in the way some are thinking about the likely impact of tariffs and the path that major asset classes could take from here. For Gang Hu, a trader at New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, the conclusion is that stocks can still power higher no matter what this Wednesday's consumer-price index for May shows and despite continuing uncertainty about inflation. That's in contrast to the views held by many market participants through April 8 — when the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP all fell to 52-week lows just three days after President Donald Trump's 10% baseline tariff on U.S. imports from most countries took effect following months of trade uncertainty. 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell? 'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will? 'I prepaid our mom's rent for a year': My sister is a millionaire and never helps our mother. How do I cut her out of her will? I bought my mother-in-law a condo — and she took out a $30,000 car loan. Now she refuses to get a roommate. 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. One big reason for the current shift in thinking is that the full impact of tariffs is taking longer than expected to show up in the final price of goods, and it may take up to three more months for this to play out. Anecdotal information in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report released last week revealed that, as of May, businesses planned to pass on tariff-related costs by August. This delayed impact from tariffs has since been factored into traders' expectations for the core CPI inflation rate that excludes food and energy, which is seen as likely to peak on a monthly basis in August. Traders of derivatives-like instruments known as fixings are now preparing for the monthly core CPI rate to rise to just over 0.4% in August, up from 0.2% for April, according to Hu's calculations. They expect this rate to then slide back down to below 0.2% for November and December, before inching up toward 0.3% again by next March. However, there's more to this than meets the eye, Hu said, and these numbers don't mean much of anything. 'In reality, the market is as clueless as the Fed,' Hu said via phone on Monday. 'The market is not currently pricing in any second inflationary impact in the form of a wage-inflation spiral, which could happen fast, and the market is not pricing in any recession impact.' What's more, previous fears of a U.S. recession have yet to come to fruition after years of speculation, even though recent data such as last week's jump in unemployment-benefit filings and a contraction in the services sector point to signs of a slowdown. The result is that the stock market has generally stabilized. On Monday, U.S. stocks closed mostly higher as traders awaited details of U.S.-China trade talks being held in London. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished the session at their highest levels since February, at 6,005.88 and 19,591.24 respectively, despite lingering questions about the inflationary impacts of tariffs. Also on Monday, analysts at Barclays said signs of stagflation, or the unwelcome mix of slowing economic growth and increasing inflation, have 'crept back' into the data, and this week's inflation report has the potential to show 'the first real evidence of tariff-linked price pressures.' Even so, one-year BX:TMUBMUSD01Y through 30-year BX:TMUBMUSD30Y Treasury yields finished lower after a monthly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated nationwide consumer expectations for inflation had dropped in May. Hu has demonstrated a propensity for being on target with his thinking on inflation. In July 2022, he told MarketWatch that 'inflation is going to be stickier than most people imagine,' which turned out to be the case. Less than a year later, in February 2023, Hu said inflation could easily take more than a year to decline enough for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed raised borrowing costs to as high as 5.25%-5.5% in July of that year, then left them unchanged for more than a year before delivering its first rate cut in September 2024. According to Hu, tariffs are a bit of a double-edged sword. They have the potential to either drive the U.S. into a recession or lead to further inflation that keeps the Federal Reserve on hold at a benchmark rate of between 4.25% and 4.5%, creating a fairly wide range of possible outcomes for the economy in the months ahead. An example of just how wide the band of trading can be is illustrated by what has already happened this year: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached their year-to-date closing highs of 6,144.15 and 20,056.25, respectively, in February. Less than two months later, on April 8, they fell to their lowest closing levels of the year, at 4,982.77 and 15,267.91. As of Monday, they rose back to their highest closing levels since February. For now, 'the market could be reasonably stable even in the presence of uncertainty,' Hu said. 'Rate-cut expectations could be either too low or too high, and 2025 cuts could easily be zero or 100 basis points in reality. Daily price changes could be very large, and we could go to the top and bottom of ranges very quickly, with few people fading anything in most asset prices. But all in all, prices stay in a range.' He added: 'The million-dollar question is, will there be a secondary impact of the initial inflation shock in the form of a wage-inflation spiral? By September, we should have a decent idea of whether there will be a secondary impact.' Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the May consumer-price index released on Wednesday to produce a 2.5% annual headline rate and 0.3% monthly core rate that are both benign relative to April's data. The producer-price index for the same month, which follows on Thursday, is expected to show a 0.2% increase versus a month-over-month drop of 0.5% in April. My son, 39, will be released from prison in 2030. Do I leave him my $100K life insurance? 20 stocks bucking bad trends on Wall Street — what might be next for them? I have $1,000 in credit-card debt. Will I be able to hide my inheritance from the bank? How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance? 20 stocks of companies that have improved profit margins and are expected to grow quickly Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Musk says he regrets some posts he made about Trump
(Reuters) -Billionaire Elon Musk said on Wednesday that he regrets some of the posts he made last week about U.S President Donald Trump, in a message on his social media platform X. "I regret some of my posts about President Donald Trump last week. They went too far," Musk wrote. Trump and Musk began exchanging insults last week on social media, with the Tesla and SpaceX CEO describing the president's sweeping tax and spending bill as a "disgusting abomination." Musk's post comes days after Trump said his relationship with Musk was over.
Bloomberg
22 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
US Tariff Damage to Business Is Ongoing: 3-Minute MLIV
Anna Edwards, Tom Mackenzie and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." (Source: Bloomberg)
