Reform UK are set to hand the SNP a fifth term at Holyrood by damaging Scottish Labour
Reform UK 's stunning success in the English local elections has massive implications for Scottish politics.
The conventional analysis is that Nigel Farage is an English phenomenon with little resonance north of the border.
But the reality is that the political earthquake which hit England will send powerful tremors to Scotland.
Opinion polls had already predicted huge gains for Reform at the Holyrood election and council by-election results have been positive for Farage. The latest Survation poll predicted Reform would go from 0 MSPs to 12 - and that was one of the poorer polls for the anti-immigration party.
Reform have eaten into Tory and Labour support in England and the same pattern is visible in Scotland.
SNP and spells disaster for Anas Sarwar as he mounts his bid to become First Minister.
All eyes are now on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election for Holyrood on June 5th.
With Reform on the march, there is a four way split on the pro-UK vote that shows no sign of healing.
More than one doorknocker has been struck by the number of voters in this totemic South Lanarkshire by-election who are 'undecided'.
Labour loyalists believe these voters are open to persuasion, but others say 'undecided' is code for Reform.
Success breeds success and the gains made in the English locals will embolden by-election voters who feel tempted by Farage.
Hamilton also feels like a forerunner of the Holyrood election. Labour's only path to power involves knocking down SNP first-past-the-post seats like skittles.
But this task becomes near impossible if Farage 's party is winning between 10pc and 15pc in constituencies across Scotland.
The Reform factor is already having a negative impact on Scottish Labour's strategy. Labour hammered the SNP at the general election after running a positive campaign based on change which appealed to soft Nationalist voters.
But Farage's success is pulling Labou r in the opposite direction and making them focus on stopping core voters switching to Reform.
Labour's campaign in Hamilton has retreated into the comfort zone of positioning themselves as the head of the anti-SNP coalition. Such an approach may appeal to some right wing voters but it will alienate the moderate Nats who voted Labour last year.
Sarwar's problems have primarily been caused by the Labour Government.
Keir Starmer 's administration has been defined by its blunders while being incapable of telling a positive story of where the UK is headed.
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13 minutes ago
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The Migration Observatory believes this is the case, telling us: 'Data clearly show that the 'biggest influx of migrants in British history' took place under the previous administration.' School standards minister mixes up inflation and interest rates Speaking about the cost of living in an interview on Friday, school standards minister Catherine McKinnell MP claimed 'we've seen inflation coming down'. That's not what the latest inflation figures show, however, and the Department for Education has since told us she'd intended to refer to interest rates. While the Bank Rate – which is set by the Bank of England to influence the interest rates charged by banks – is currently one percentage point lower than it was when Labour came into government on July 5 2024, inflation (the change in prices for goods and services over time, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, or CPI) is higher than it was when Labour entered government. 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