After recent storms, NM not out of the woods when it comes to fire, drought concerns

Yahoo

10-05-2025

May 9—SANTA FE — The recent rain and snow that fell across parts of New Mexico have eased wildfire concerns — for now — in the state's northern mountains and eastern grasslands, but not fully doused drought conditions.
After an extremely mild, dry winter, most of southern and southwestern New Mexico remains in extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
"There's still definitely concern," said Andrew Mangham, a senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque. "Once we're dried out, we could be back in trouble again."
David DuBois, New Mexico's state climatologist, said the Gila National Forest and Black Range did not receive much of the recent precipitation that traveled northwest from the Gulf of Mexico.
"I think there's still risk if you go farther south," DuBois said, referring to a wildfire season that's started increasingly earlier in the year in recent years.
Indeed, the Iron Fire in the Gila Wilderness burned more than 600 acres this week and prompted local evacuations before hotshot crews were able to slow its growth.
However, parts of eastern New Mexico are no longer technically in drought conditions after receiving more than 2.5 inches of rain over the last week. Nearly 3 feet of snow fell in some parts of the high mountains of northern New Mexico, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a snowmelt flooding advisory through the weekend.
But the May moisture could be a double-edged sword, Mangham said, as it could lead to an increased fuel load if it's followed by dry and warm conditions.
He also said there's still concern about water levels statewide after the state's driest winter in 100-plus years.
"One storm is not going to make up for such a dry winter," Mangham told the Journal.
In fact, the state's overall drought outlook is still significantly more dire than it was at the start of the year.
Specifically, just 1.3% of New Mexico was not designated as being abnormally dry or in drought conditions as of this week, compared to 43.7% of the state as of the start of January, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In addition, about 92% of state residents live in parts of the state currently in drought conditions.
Just days before the early May storms, Santa Fe National Forest had implemented Stage 1 fire restrictions that banned campfires outside designated fire rings through September.
Claudia Brookshire, a U.S. Forest Service public affairs officer for the national forest, said those restrictions are still in place despite the recent precipitation.
She said they could be reevaluated if there is more rain and snow in May, but cautioned that June is typically New Mexico's hottest and driest month.
"When we initially made the decision to implement Stage 1 Fire Restrictions, we were experiencing a historical drought," Brookshire told the Journal. "Although recent rainfall has exceeded initial predictions, we are closely monitoring the weather."
In the Santa Fe National Forest and in other parts of the state, local officials warned that warmer, drier weather could bring renewed fire danger even after the recent moisture.
"If we get some really warm days, that could change pretty rapidly," cautioned DuBois, who is also a professor at New Mexico State University.
Dangerous fire weather could return to southwest New Mexico early next week, as strong winds and low humidity combine to create moderate to high fire danger, according to the National Weather Service.
"It really depends on where you are in the state," said Mangham.