West Asia in Crisis: What Happens to India?
In this episode of Central Hall, Kapil Sibal is in conversation with three eminent former diplomats – Shivshankar Menon, Talmiz Ahmad, and Vivek Katju – to discuss the fallouts of the Israel-Iran conflict.
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44 minutes ago
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Why has Hezbollah stayed out of the Israel-Iran conflict so far?
As Iran and Israel exchange direct attacks, Hezbollah — Tehran's most powerful regional ally — has chosen to stay on the sidelines. The Lebanon-based group, weakened by last year's Israeli strikes and under domestic and international pressure, has publicly pledged loyalty to Iran but held back militarily read more Demonstrators hold pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, as people gather for a rally in solidarity with Iran, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, June 20, 2025. File Image/Reuters One player is missing from the recent tensions between Iran and Israel. The lack of military engagement by Hezbollah, Iran's long-time and most strategically placed regional ally is being seen as an anomaly in the recent conflict. Based in Lebanon and once regarded as among the most effective non-state actors in the world, Hezbollah's decision to refrain from joining the hostilities stands in stark contrast to its prior behaviour during regional escalations, particularly following the October 7, 2023, attacks carried out by Hamas on Israel. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Tehran, for decades, has fostered a network of allied militias across West Asia, including in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, designed to serve both as deterrents and retaliatory forces in the event of aggression against Iran. Of these, Hezbollah has traditionally been the most heavily armed and strategically located, directly bordering northern Israel. But while Israel and Iran have exchanged attacks for days, Hezbollah's military units have remained in their positions without launching retaliatory strikes. According to a Lebanese government official familiar with the situation, army leaders received internal signals from Hezbollah that the group had no current plans to join the ongoing confrontation. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to Bloomberg due to the sensitive nature of the information. Why Hezbollah has stayed out of the Israel-Iran conflict so far One of the key factors influencing Hezbollah's current posture is the significant damage it incurred during its conflict with Israel in the latter half of the previous year. The group lost many of its senior commanders, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, and faced extensive destruction of its infrastructure. Israel's military employed extensive tactics including drone operations, aerial bombardments and ground offensives across southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut. That campaign, followed by a ceasefire in late November, left large portions of Hezbollah's stronghold areas in ruins. The Lebanese military, which has since increased its presence in the south, was able to seize various weapons caches reportedly abandoned or hidden by the militia. The physical and economic toll of the conflict has been immense. According to World Bank estimates, the direct damages and losses suffered by Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah hostilities amounted to approximately $14 billion. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A further $11 billion is expected to be needed for rebuilding, a sum neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah appears to have secured. Compounding the situation is Lebanon's severe financial crisis, Iran's economic constraints due to international sanctions and the broader costs of regional instability. These factors have left Hezbollah with diminished operational capacity and growing political pressure at home. Lebanon's newly formed technocratic administration, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, has pointed out the need to keep the country insulated from external wars. During a cabinet session, Salam stated that Lebanon must avoid 'being dragged or pushed in any way in the ongoing regional war.' How Hezbollah is still batting for Iran While Hezbollah has not taken military action, its leadership has continued to publicly affirm its alliance with Iran. In a speech Thursday night, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem voiced unconditional support for Iran in the unfolding crisis with Israel and the United States. 'Iran has the right to defend itself, and the peoples of the region and the free people of the world have the right to stand with the great leader and with Iran in one trench,' Qassem said. He also highlighted the legitimacy of Iran's nuclear programme, stating: 'It does not harm anyone in the slightest way; rather, it represents a great scientific contribution to the advancement of Iran and the region, relying on its own capabilities without foreign tutelage.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Denouncing international criticism of Iran, Qassem accused world powers of opposing Tehran not for its nuclear capabilities but for its ideological values and resistance posture. 'America is leading the region into chaos and instability, and the world into open crises,' he declared, adding that such policies would 'only bring it shame, disgrace, and failure.' Despite these declarations, the group's operational activity has not matched the intensity of its rhetoric. This marks a significant departure from its behaviour following the Hamas-led assault on Israel in October 2023, after which Hezbollah quickly launched cross-border missile attacks in support of its Palestinian allies. Qassem also warned of consequences stemming from Israeli actions: 'Israel's aggression will have major repercussions on regional stability and will not pass without a response and punishment.' However, no direct retaliatory moves have followed, suggesting that Hezbollah is calibrating its responses based on broader regional and domestic considerations. How Israel & US continue to pressure Hezbollah While Hezbollah has not engaged in new offensive operations, the United States has sent strong warnings to dissuade the group from joining the Israel-Iran conflict. US Special Envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack, visited Beirut and met with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a known Hezbollah ally. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Following the meeting, Barrack said: 'I can say on behalf of President Trump, which he has been very clear in expressing, as has Special Envoy Steve Witkoff: that would be a very, very, very bad decision.' These comments reflect Washington's position that Hezbollah's involvement would escalate the crisis and possibly provoke a broader war — something few actors in the region currently want. Meanwhile, Israeli surveillance continues with intensity. Drones reportedly conduct near-daily flights over Beirut, and airstrikes on select targets have not ceased. These ongoing threats have limited Hezbollah's freedom of movement and capacity to regroup. Additionally, the Lebanese population, still reeling from last year's devastation, has shown little appetite for renewed conflict. Viral social media videos from cities like Beirut have shown residents filming Iranian ballistic missiles flying overhead during Israeli retaliatory operations — showing how close Lebanon remains to the conflict, even without participating directly. A spokesperson for Hezbollah, speaking to Newsweek, stated the group remains 'committed to the ceasefire agreement' with Israel. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Still, analysts suggest that Hezbollah's current stance is conditional. Political analyst Qassim Qassir, who has close ties to the group, said that Hezbollah may alter its position depending on how events unfold. 'Everything is on the table. Nothing is off limits,' he noted, implying that the group's inactivity may be temporary, especially if Iran's regime comes under more direct threat. With inputs from agencies
