Trump won more than half of foreign-born Hispanics — still would have beaten Harris if every eligible person voted in 2024 election: analysis
President Trump won more than half of foreign-born Hispanic voters in the 2024 election and still would've beat former Vice President Kamala Harris had every eligible voter turned out to the polls, an analysis of his landslide victory concluded Thursday.
A stunning 51% of Hispanic, naturalized US citizens voted for Trump over Harris, according to the Pew Research Center's 2024 election post-mortem.
Trump, who on the campaign trail pledged to crackdown on illegal immigration and shore up the southern border, bested Harris among foreign-born Hispanics by 3 percentage points and performed 12 points better within the demographic than he did in 2020.
Advertisement
3 Trump won a majority of foreign-born Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election.
Gregory P. Mango
After losing the overall Hispanic vote to former president Joe Biden in 2020 (61%-36%), Trump came within striking distance of topping Harris' 51% Latino vote total, garnering 48% from the demographic.
By comparison, Trump received only 28% of the Hispanic vote during his first presidential election in 2016.
Advertisement
The Pew Research Center analysis, which surveyed almost 9,000 voters in the weeks after the 2024 election, found that Trump's coalition of support in his third presidential campaign was 'more racially and ethnically diverse' than ever before.
The president carried 15% of Black voters (up from 8% in 2020), 40% of Asian voters (up from 30% in 2020) and maintained the same 55% support from white voters he received four years earlier.
Slightly fewer eligible voters turned out to the polls in 2024 (64%) than did in 2020 (66%), and among those that did – a higher share of Trump's 2020 backers than Biden's 2020 supporters cast ballots, according to Pew.
3 Trump made major gains among Hispanic voters in the 2024 election.
Getty Images
Advertisement
3 More nonvoters would have broken for Trump than Harris.
Getty Images
But even if every eligible person in the country would have voted, Trump still would have won the 2024 presidential election, the analysis found.
Among non-voters, 44% would have voted for Trump, while 40% said they would have backed Harris – shattering the longstanding political belief that higher turnout helps Democrats.
Had these people participated in the 2024 election, Trump's margin of victory over Harris would have increased from 1.5 percentage points to 3 percentage points.
Trump's historic 49.7%-48.2% victory over Harris last November saw him win the national popular vote for the first time and more Electoral College votes (312) than he won in 2016.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
an hour ago
Trump says US has signed a deal with China on trade, without giving details
BANGKOK -- The U.S. and China have signed an agreement on trade, President Donald Trump said, adding he expects to soon have a deal with India. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV that the deal was signed earlier this week. Neither Lutnick nor Trump provided any details about the agreement. 'We just signed with China the other day,' Trump said late Thursday. Lutnick said the deal was 'signed and sealed' two days earlier. It follows initial talks in Geneva in early May that led both sides to postpone massive tariff hikes that were threatening to freeze much trade between the two countries. Later talks in London set a framework for negotiations and the deal mentioned by Trump appeared to formalize that agreement. 'The president likes to close these deals himself. He's the dealmaker. We're going to have deal after deal,' Lutnick said. China has not announced any new agreements, but it announced earlier this week that it was speeding up approvals of exports of rare earths, materials used in high-tech products such as electric vehicles. Beijing's limits on exports of rare earths have been a key point of contention. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said Thursday that Beijing was accelerating review of export license applications for rare earths and had approved 'a certain number of compliant applications.' Export controls of the minerals apparently eclipsed tariffs in the latest round of trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington after China imposed permitting requirements on seven rare earth elements in April, threatening to disrupt production of cars, robots, wind turbines and other high-tech products in the U.S. and around the world. The agreement struck in May in Geneva called for both sides to scale back punitive tariff hikes imposed as Trump escalated his trade war and sharply raised import duties. Some higher tariffs, such as those imposed by Washington related to the trade in fentanyl and duties on aluminum and steel, remain in place. The rapidly shifting policies are taking a toll on both of the world's two largest economies. The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March, partly because imports surged as companies and households rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. In China, factory profits sank more than 9% from a year earlier in May, with automakers suffering a large share of that drop. They fell more than 1% year-on-year in January-May. Trump and other U.S. officials have indicated they expect to reach trade deals with many other countries, including India. 'We're going to have deal after deal after deal,' Lutnick said.
New York Post
an hour ago
- New York Post
6 Americans detained for trying to send rice and Bibles to North Korea by sea: police
Six Americans were detained Friday in South Korea for trying to send 1,600 plastic bottles filled with rice, US dollars bills and Bibles toward North Korea by sea, police said. The Americans tried to throw the bottles into the sea from front-line Gwanghwa Island so they could float toward North Korean shores by the tides, said a police officer who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to media on the issue. He said they are being investigated on allegations they violated the law on the management of safety and disasters. 4 North Korean defector activists empty bags of bottles containing rice and money on Ganghwa Island, on May 1, 2018. AFP via Getty Images A second South Korean police officer confirmed the detentions of the Americans. The police officers gave no further details, including whether any of the six had made previous attempts to send bottles toward North Korea. Activists floating plastic bottles or flying balloons carrying anti-North Korea propaganda leaflets across the border has long caused tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea expressed its anger at the balloon campaigns by launching its own balloons carrying trash into South Korea, including at least two that landed in the presidential compound in Seoul last year. In 2023, South Korea's Constitutional Court struck down a 2020 law that criminalized the sending of leaflets and other items to North Korea, calling it an excessive restriction on free speech. 4 Plastic bags containing Bible passages are prepared to be thrown into the sea by defectors on May 1, 2018. AFP via Getty Images 4 An illuminated border fence shines in the distance on South Korea's border island of Ganghwa on Nov. 7, 2024. AFP via Getty Images But since taking office in early June, the new liberal government of President Lee Jae Myung is pushing to crack down on such civilian campaigns with other safety-related laws to avoid a flare-up tensions with North Korea and promote the safety of frontline South Korean residents. On June 14, police detained an activist for allegedly flying balloons toward North Korea from Gwanghwa Island. Lee took office with a promise to restart long-dormant talks with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula. 4 A South Korean solider stands at a checkpoint near the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea on Ganghwa Island on May 24, 2018. AFP via Getty Images Lee's government halted frontline anti-Pyongyang propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts to try to ease military tensions. North Korean broadcasts have not been heard in South Korean front-line towns since then. But it's unclear if North Korea will respond to Lee's conciliatory gesture after it vowed last year to sever relations with South Korea and abandon the goal of peaceful Korean reunification. Official talks between the Koreas have been stalled since 2019 when the US-led diplomacy on North Korean denuclearization derailed.
Business Insider
an hour ago
- Business Insider
'A graveyard of companies': Climate tech startups are feeling the heat from Trump 2.0
Trump's new bill affects tax credits that benefited the clean energy sector and climate startups. It's spooked some climate founders who worked in industries relying on government subsidies. Many are now pivoting to new brands and geographies, and investors expect a reset. The Trump administration's proposed overhaul of green energy tax credits has jolted the climate tech sector — and investors and founders in the ecosystem are scrambling to make fallback plans. Cleantech stocks tumbled in May after a bill cutting tax credits for clean energy incentives passed through the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Now, founders and investors are concerned about the knock-on impact this could have on the country's climate tech ecosystem, which was burgeoning under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA. They told Business Insider that Trump's bill has stifled startup growth ambitions, pushing them to scale back, pivot to new geographies, or shut down entirely. "There will be a graveyard of companies," Matthew Nordan, managing partner at clean tech fund Azolla Ventures, told BI. "And a lot of startups will hibernate to try to weather the storm." Early-stage startups are already beginning to feel the heat. In April, Spencer Gore, founder and CEO of Bedrock Materials, a sodium-ion battery startup, made an unusual announcement on LinkedIn: the startup would be returning most of its $9 million raised to investors and ceasing operations. The company had plenty of operational cash, but "it was the techno-economics that led us to pull the plug," Gore told BI, adding that the market conditions for climate tech startups in the US were hampered by waning industrial policy. Startups are pivoting and eyeing new geographies A byproduct of the new tax bill — and growing political backlash against ESG incentives — is that Europe is becoming more attractive for climate techs to set up shop. "There's a dramatic retrenchment to Europe occurring within climate tech startups now. It's broad-based, and the EU is doing the opposite of what the US is doing right now," Nordan told BI. Sam Kanner, the CEO of floating wind turbine startup Aikido, an Azolla portfolio company, told BI he's considering moving his company to Europe. Trump's executive orders have "put a chill on investor sentiment and project development in the US," he said. There are "no longer any grant opportunities" through the Department of Energy or other agencies, he added, which means its "go-to-market strategy is now completely focused on Europe." Blain said that startups in the EU could turn to government funding from bodies such as the European Investment Fund, adding that "energy prices make the Nordics very attractive" as a hub. Europe, in particular, has made significant headway in aligning regulatory frameworks with climate targets, which de-risks early-stage tech, said Todd Khozein, CEO of SecondMuse. Kanner said that the UK, France, and Norway had "enacted supportive policies which have had the opposite effect on investors in those ecosystems", encouraging private equity, infrastructure, and venture investors to back wind projects. Startups are also eager to look beyond Europe for expansion. "Generally speaking, the EU has made itself unattractive from a manufacturing standpoint, by over-relying on Russia. We'd look to Brazil, India, and the Middle East," Max Kufner, cofounder of carbon capture and utilization startup Again, told BI. "The Middle East is proving to be a viable partner in decarbonization." Right now, "a lot of climate tech entrepreneurs are asking themselves what it means to be an entrepreneur in the United States, and whether this is really the best place to attract and retain talent," Gore said. "What we're seeing right now with startups is similar to the playbook we saw with Trump 1.0. A lot of companies will make a push to rebrand themselves as energy security and resilience funds," Nordan said. Climate tech startups have had a rocky year The aftermath of a global tech downturn, rising interest rates, and mounting backlash against ESG incentives has made it increasingly difficult for climate tech startups to fundraise. In the first quarter of 2025, climate startups secured $10 billion, down 50% from the $20 billion raised in Q1 of 2024, per PitchBook data. Biden's IRA offered climate companies billions of dollars worth of subsidies, tax credits, and rebates. The Trump administration is now attempting to roll back parts of the $369 billion initiative. "Anything that relied on grants, that came out of the IRA, for first-of-a-kind (FOAK) projects, will be hit the hardest," Nordan said. For example, direct air capture startup Climeworks — which received a $50 million US government grant in 2024 — laid off over 100 employees in May. Its CEO told Bloomberg that the startup's upcoming Louisiana plant would be delayed in light of the Trump administration's green policy decisions. Nordan anticipates more layoffs and shutdowns of companies that were dependent on government grants. Offshore wind and solar projects have also been in Trump's crosshairs. While these aren't usually venture-backed categories, the steep reduction in staff at the Department of Energy's loan program office, which provided debt funding to clean energy startups, will have a more debilitating impact on companies in these sectors, Matthew Blain, an investor at Voyager Ventures, told BI. Still, investor appetite for nuclear fusion, long-duration energy storage, and startups making data centers more efficient has accelerated, partly due to the AI boom, which requires immense energy.
