NHL Stanley Cup Final predictions: Surveying NHL coaches and execs on Oilers-Panthers part 2

New York Times

2 days ago

EDMONTON — The NHL's first Stanley Cup Final rematch since Detroit and Pittsburgh in 2008 and '09 promises to electrify us perhaps just as much as those two Finals did.
And just like Sidney Crosby was determined to capture his first Cup in '09 after losing the year before, Connor McDavid sure seems on a mission for the Edmonton Oilers. But will it be enough to topple the juggernaut Florida Panthers?
Advertisement
In what has become a yearly tradition, I reached out to coaches and executives from across the NHL for their predictions for this year's Cup Final.
You may remember that a year ago, this poll was overwhelmingly in favor of the Panthers, with only four of the 33 coaches and execs polled picking the Oilers.
It was so lopsided that Oilers players on Media Day let it slip to me that head coach Kris Knoblauch had brought it up in a team meeting — to further motivate his squad ahead of the Final.
It didn't matter, as the Panthers held off a furious Oilers series comeback to take Game 7 at home.
What's going to happen this time around? Let's hear from our coaches and team execs.
(Note: Some responses are edited lightly for clarity.)
Oilers in seven. We're fortunate that two excellent teams meet again in the Final. Should be another great series and make for some neat storylines. So impressed by how Edmonton has navigated the playoffs and really made some formidable teams look ordinary.
Obviously Florida is a special team, but hard to see Edmonton be denied a second time. If their goaltending holds up, they'll defend well enough that their top-end guys will make the difference, especially with home ice. Not only are their elite players coming through, but the depth additions have also been really key.
I had the Panthers in seven last year when you asked me. Every once in a while, I get lucky.
I'll take Oilers in six this year.
It feels like it's 97's (McDavid's) time and he is on a mission that no one is going to stop. Stuart Skinner has dialed it back in. The role players and secondary players on the Oilers seem to be really stepping up this postseason and playing at a high level.
I'm picking Florida because until someone proves otherwise, they are the most complete and best team in the NHL. The loss of Zach Hyman over a seven-game series will hurt. Edmonton survived it in the Dallas series but only needed to win one more game without him. It will be hard to win four without him. Plus Florida has the better goalie.
Florida again. Team depth, but more importantly, the depth on the blue line. Also, they have the better goalie.
I would say Florida because it starts in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky has the experience and seems to be calm and composed under pressure. Special teams always play a factor, and I give Florida the edge. Edmonton's going to have to handle the forecheck of Florida and all the wall plays and rims that go along with their structure. I think 16 (Aleksander Barkov) will be able to limit some time and space against 97. If Edmonton can exit their zone and get through the neutral zone, they will have a chance. Also, both teams' defenses will play a factor offensively, for sure. That will be interesting to see which team has more point production from the back end. It will be a great series, and Edmonton knows now what they have to do, but I think Florida ends up pulling it out.
Advertisement
Another great Final to be expected this year. My prediction would be for the Oilers to win. Florida has that winning pedigree and has the ability to play any style of game, but I feel Edmonton is defending very well right now, their power play is as dangerous as ever, and I just don't think 97 will settle for anything less than winning the Stanley Cup. I think he goes to another level.
I've got Florida. Edmonton is a better team than they were last year, but Florida gives no room and they just wear you down over the course of the series with their physicality.
Edmonton, because of the two animals on a mission. I took them to win the Cup this year as soon as they lost last year.
Losing is a great teacher. Also, the way they did it, I know they are ready to win now. I love Florida and I believe the Oilers of last year were better roster-wise than this year, but still, I don't think they will be denied this year.
Edmonton. Going with 97 and 29 (Leon Draisaitl) the second time around. History shows these types of players get it done if they have failed at it the first time.
Florida in six.
Man, this is a tough call. I am going to say Florida in seven. I think they have the edge in goaltending. If the Panthers can contain 97 and 29 to some extent, I think they have a deeper team. This will be tight either way!
Hard to pick against Florida, but Edmonton has to win with their greatness. In 7.
Edmonton in seven. Home ice. Travel less. Scarred from last year. Know what the stage feels like the second time around.
I think Florida takes them. They put so much pressure on the other team. Shot volume. The Oilers' goalie had better play great. Deep team.
I do think it's anybody's series, but if I had to choose, I'd have to go Florida in six or seven. Goaltending, consistency, and the size and strength of the forwards are hard to handle.
Advertisement
It'll be a close series again. I believe it's Edmonton's time. Just seems like they've kept getting better as the playoffs have gone on. Home-ice advantage as well. Edmonton in six.
Two great teams playing great hockey. Really hard to pick between them. Another long series coming. The Hyman injury is significant, but so is getting Mattias Ekholm back. If you're making me pick one, I'm not going against 97 and 29 in their second try.
Hard to pick, to be honest. Going to go with Edmonton based on:
• How 97 and 29 are playing right now.
• Losing last year and what they learned and the hunger that goes with it.
• Their D structure is better this year, especially with Ekholm healthy.
• Not relying on just the PP to win.
But their goalie has to play the way he has been or they will lose.
I have Edmonton in seven.
Why? It's 97's time.
The depth has performed better, and the team is feeling it. They're less reliant on Hyman, even though he's a huge loss.
Florida in six.
Florida just too deep. Barkov is the key — the best 200-foot center in the league. He allows the Panthers' depth to take over. Edmonton losing Hyman will hurt as the series wears on. Goaltending will have to favor Edmonton to swing the series in their favor.
Florida. Like their goalie better. Physical team.
It will be hard for the Edmonton D corps to break out pucks, and the amount of time they will spend defending during the series versus Florida's heavy O-zone commitment.
The downside to Florida's strength is they give up odd-man rushes, and Edmonton has the elite skill to capitalize on those compared to most teams.
In the end, I tip the scales to Florida with their depth and better goaltending in a long series.
The Stanley Cup is going to go back to Canada. The Oilers have found a way to play a sounder defensive game in front of Skinner, and they cash in on their high-danger chances. They will miss Hyman, and the Panthers are heavy and hard, but 97 and 29 seem destined to get their names on the Cup. I have the Oilers in six.
Advertisement
So impressive that both teams have made it back to the Final. Just shows how good the two really are. I'm picking Florida. They won last year, and their team seems even stronger this year. Every line has that 'it' factor. They come at you and push right through you. The heaviness and nasty have become contagious up and down their lineup. McDavid will have something to say about it. He's at a jaw-dropping level right now. But I pick the Panthers.
I believe it's Edmonton. They're close to being able to match Florida physically and have been tested this year in that part of their game in these playoffs. Even without 18 (Hyman), they're more physical with 91 (Evander Kane) and 21 (Trent Frederic). And 97 and 29 are as ultra-focused as anyone still playing, 93 (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) has elevated, and 14 (Ekholm) is a differentiator and has low playoff mileage this year with a healthy break before Game 1.
This will be an entertaining seven-game series. Florida's physicality, scoring depth and the heroics of Playoff Bob will be enough to overcome McDavid, Draisaitl and Edmonton's elite power play. Hyman's absence will loom large.
My pick is Florida, I'm assuming they are healthy. Getting Niko Mikkola and Sam Reinhart back, they are four lines deep, and they have the better goaltender. Edmonton without Hyman is a big loss. So close. Florida in seven.
Florida in six. The Panthers will repeat.
I give the edge in goal to Bobrovsky, and the addition of Brad Marchand to a seasoned defending Cup core group will be too much for Edmonton. The loss of Hyman for Edmonton is a factor that can't be replaced. Florida is stronger defensively as well.
Hard to bet against Florida for me. They are deep, they are heavy and they win the goaltending battle, too. If they play disciplined and stay out of the box, I think they win.
Advertisement
If they take penalties, McDavid and the Edmonton power play is just too dominant. Edmonton's rolling right now, but I still think Florida gets it done.
Difficult call, but I will take Florida in six or seven.
McDavid's the best player, but Hyman is a massive loss. Florida's deeper and more robust. Don't see them losing four games.
Clear edge to Bob in goal.
Edmonton. Lessons learned from last year's loss.
Edmonton in seven. I do think Florida is the better team, and it's hard to bet against them. They play the kind of hockey that wins a series like this. The loss of Hyman is big for Edmonton as well. Logic says take Florida. But Edmonton's stars are on a mission. McDavid is going to win his Cup at some point. Why not now?
Edmonton, because:
• Home ice means they dictate matchups and have fans on their side.
• They're better prepared for Florida and their unique playing style (and antics) after last year's experience.
• McDavid and Draisaitl have somehow reached another level.
Oil in 6. McDavid and Draisaitl are the two best players in the series, and they are at top of their games. They are making everyone around them better.
They know what to expect this time, too. Evan Bouchard is a star … and they have enough size and depth.
I think it's Edmonton's year. Part of their road to success was that they had to face enough adversity and overcome it both as a team and as individuals, and I believe they have. The 4 Nations was huge for McDavid. As a team, they have lost and adjusted. Plus, they have hardened up a bit, and I don't see Florida getting to them as much.
Florida. I don't see why it won't be as close as last year, but I will once again go with superior goaltending and depth (offensively and defensively). McJesus' Holy Quest is something to watch, though!
Edmonton. Tough to beat the same team twice in the Final, and more importantly, McJesus will not be denied two years in a row.
I think Florida wins. Edmonton will miss Hyman in a big way. Florida is healthy now, and Bob has found his game.
Edmonton. It's their time.
Hard to bet against how effective and efficient Florida looks right now, in full Champion mode. Their depth is a weapon, and their top guys are driving the bus. That said, Edmonton has really impressed me with how they have defended and checked. There is a confidence and maturity to their group right now that you have to appreciate. They dispatched a really good Dallas team with relative ease. They are getting the goaltending. Losing Hyman feels like it could be the percentage point that swings this series, as he's exactly the type of player they need against Florida.
My heart says Edmonton. My head says Florida. I'll go Edmonton in seven.
One year later, nothing one-sided here. The coaches were 11-11, and the team execs went 10-8 for Edmonton, swinging on that one last head-versus-heart pick. So a very close poll ended up 21-19 for the Oilers to win Canada's first Stanley Cup since 1993.
The Florida picks had two major themes: Bobrovsky being the better goalie in the series, and the loss of Zach Hyman for the Oilers.
Advertisement
The Edmonton picks basically come down to McDavid and Draisaitl being on a mission and not being denied. It's not very scientific as a reason to pick the Oilers, but like Crosby in '09 and Alex Ovechkin in '18, there is some truth to a superstar willing himself to his first career Stanley Cup championship.
One thing that a few of those polled mentioned, but not as many as I think should have: Florida's discipline in this Cup Final will be huge. The Panthers lead the playoffs in hits per 60 minutes and penalties taken per 60 minutes, but they also have the top-ranked penalty kill. Florida's abrasive style is its DNA, so the Panthers can't pull it all the way back, but a parade to the penalty box against the Oilers' 30 percent power play is not a good idea. That's where I think the series plays out.
A year ago, this poll was a one-sided Florida pick. This time, it's nearly a coin flip with a slight edge to the Oilers. I actually think this Panthers team is better and deeper than last year's Cup champion roster. But the Oilers are indeed at another level.
Does having Game 7 at home in Edmonton make a difference this time around for the Oilers? We shall see.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic, with photos by Bruce Bennett, Josh Lavallee, Cooper Neill and Kirk Irwin / Getty Images)