Golf betting tips: 2025 US Open

Telegraph

a day ago

US Open outright odds
(Courtesy of BoyleSports)
Scottie Scheffler 5/2
Bryson DeChambeau 13/2
Rory McIlroy 9/1
Jon Rahm 10/1
Xander Schauffele 18/1
Ludvig Aberg 20/1
Collin Morikawa 22/1
Joaquin Niemann 22/1
Shane Lowry 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
30/1 bar
(E/W ⅕ odds 10 places; odds correct at time of writing; alternative prices and place terms available)
Ron Wood's US Open tips
US Open 2024
Rory McIlroy threw away a great chance of victory at Pinehurst. The Northern Irishman had the lead deep into the final round but bogeyed three of the last four holes, missing two short putts, enabling Bryson DeChambeau to win by a single stroke on 274 (six under par).
Major story so far in 2025
April: The Masters – McIlroy overcame some jitters to complete a career grand slam at Augusta, defeating Justin Rose in a play-off after they finished level on 277 (11 under par). Patrick Reed was two strokes back in third, with world No.1 Scottie Scheffler a further shot behind in fourth.
May: US PGA Championship – Scheffler won at Quail Hollow by five strokes on 273 (11 under par), although Jon Rahm gave him a scare, tying the lead during the final round before the wheels fell off for the Spaniard and he faded to a share of eighth. There was a three-way tie for second, featuring DeChambeau, but McIlroy was never at the races and finished tied for 47th.
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Course view
Oakmont Country Club, which will be hosting the event for the 10th time, has been described as the most difficult golf course in America.
The rough is thick and deep – and is still expected to be damp following huge amounts of rainfall in the spring – while the greens are sloped and fast. Then there are some 168 bunkers.
Tournament overview
Let's start with Rory McIlroy. He won this event by eight strokes at Congressional in 2011, the first of his five major triumphs. He has also finished runner-up in each of the last two years, missing out by a single stroke each time, but he blew the lead late on at Pinehurst 12 months ago.
It was widely expected that McIlroy would play with rediscovered freedom after he finally completed a career grand slam with a play-off victory at the Masters in Augusta, but his game has fallen apart since then.
While it was the putter that let down McIlroy in the 2024 US Open, it is driver issues that have been plaguing him more recently.
His driver was ruled to be non-conforming just before he struggled at last month's US PGA Championship and he was all over the place when missing the cut in last week's Canadian Open.
It's hard to think McIlroy can suddenly find his groove again on such a challenging course.
Scottie Scheffler's driver was also deemed to be non-conforming prior to the US PGA Championship – but he went on to win the tournament by five strokes.
The American entered the US PGA Championship off a magnificent performance in the Byron Nelson, which he won by eight strokes, and he has since won the Memorial Tournament by four.
There's not a lot of juice in Scheffler's outright price. However, there could be some value in a reverse forecast with Jon Rahm, who won this tournament at Torrey Pines in 2021 and was the player to give Scheffler most to think about in last month's PGA.
At one point in the final round, Rahm was tied for the lead with Scheffler. The Spaniard's game fell apart late on, but he spoke afterwards about how much fun he had had and it's an experience he can take into this week's tournament.
Rahm plays on the LIV Tour these days but he's a former world No.1 and getting into contention again on the final day of a major will have helped stoked the fire and set him up for a more sustained challenge this time around.
Rahm and Scheffler can dominate
Few players can live with an on-form Scheffler but Rahm still has what it takes to get himself in the mix and these two players could separate themselves from the field.
There's also last year's winner DeChambeau to consider. His form figures across his last five majors on home soil read 62152. But big-hitting Bryson may not have the requisite finesse for Oakmont.
Selection: Scheffler and Rahm – 1st and 2nd in either order @ 22/1 with BoyleSports
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Spaniard preferred to McIlroy
Rahm also appeals in the top European market, which is headed by the unconvincing McIlroy at 7/2.
There is also the outright market for Rahm, but given he's got Scheffler to contend with for top honours – and he has already been recommended in a forecast with the world No.1 – it's more tempting to back 'Rahmbo' in this less-competitive pool.
Selection: Jon Rahm – top European @ 4/1 with BoyleSports
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Fitzpatrick worth chancing
The 2022 US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick hasn't won a tournament anywhere since 2023 and has been struggling for form – but his tied-eighth finish at last month's US PGA Championship seems to have gone somewhat under the radar.
Save for a couple of missed putts late on, the Englishman could have finished in a share of second.
That will have given Fitzpatrick some confidence. Putting is usually one of his strong points, which makes him of particular interest around this golf course. He makes a little appeal at a big price each-way, with 10 places, in the outright market.
Matt can finish as top Englishman
Even if outright glory and a repeat of his 2022 heroics prove a step too far for Fitzpatrick, there's a fair chance he could be top Englishman, just as he was at last month's US PGA Championship, and he seems generously priced in this relatively weak field.
Last 15 US Open winners
(US unless stated)