Elon Musk's call to retire ISS could shift the balance of power in space

The National

22-02-2025

Elon Musk's suggestion of deorbiting the International Space Station in two years has highlighted the growing power struggle over who will control low-Earth orbit after the station is retired. Mr Musk, owner of SpaceX, Tesla and social media platform X, said on Thursday that it was ultimately US President Donald Trump's decision when to deorbit the station. But he recommended doing so 'as soon as possible' and added: 'I recommend two years from now'. He also added 'let's go to Mars', reinforcing his long-standing vision of prioritising deep-space exploration. Nasa and its station partners, the European Space Agency, Japan, Canada and Russia, had already agreed to retire the ISS in 2030. The US space agency wanted to stick to this timeline to avoid a gap before commercial stations are ready, which would leave low-Earth orbit under China's control with its Tiangong station as the only operational outpost. Dr Gordon Osinski, Earth sciences professor and planetary geologist at Western University in Ontario, Canada, told The National that Mr Musk's suggestions would have to be discussed with their partners first. He said the 2030 timeframe is 'the focus of international agreements and so it seems ludicrous to suggest this in a social media post'. 'I'm also not sure of the practically of deorbiting the ISS. It was only last year that Nasa announced the award of a contract to build the US Deorbit Vehicle, which is required to safely bring the station down in 2030,' he said. 'This will take years to build and there is no way, because of its size, to deorbit the ISS safely without this vehicle. Perhaps Elon has forgotten that his company, SpaceX, was awarded this contract?' The ISS has been a symbol of international co-operation since 1998, hosting astronauts from multiple nations and advancing scientific research in microgravity. But with ageing hardware and rising costs, the future depends on a new generation of private space stations. Mr Musk has significant influence over the US administration through his leadership at the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), an advisory body conducting audits of federal organisations, including Nasa. There is now uncertainty at Nasa over budget allocations and the future of its programmes, as Doge's reviews could lead to funding cuts. Nasa operates the Commercial Destinations in Low-Earth Orbit (CLD) programme, which funds companies developing private stations meant to replace the ISS. Sahith Madara, an aerospace engineer and founder of the advisory firm Bumi and Space, based in Paris, told The National that Mr Musk's comments casts doubt over the future of this programme. 'The CLD programme faces uncertainty as Musk's influence grows and funding shifts toward Artemis and Mars missions,' he said. 'If Nasa scales back CLD, private stations like Starlab and Orbital Reef could struggle, potentially giving China's Tiangong an edge in LEO (Low-Earth orbit). SpaceX, with its deep government ties, could step in as the main US orbital infrastructure provider, but for now, the future of US dominance in LEO remains in flux.' Mr Madara added that the Pentagon's increasing interest in defence-focused space stations could also shape Nasa's direction, making military-backed initiatives a bigger priority. 'With its dominance in space transport through Falcon 9 and Starship, deep ties with Nasa and the Pentagon, and strong government contracts, SpaceX is well-positioned to shape the future of space habitation,' he said. 'Musk's connections within government agencies further strengthen SpaceX's role in securing major contracts and influencing US space policy. Whether SpaceX develops its own private space station or leads new public-private partnerships, its access to funding and infrastructure puts it in a prime position amid growing competition.' Mr Musk's comments on de-orbiting the ISS came hours after an argument with an astronaut on his X platform. Andreas Mogensen, Denmark's first astronaut who served as the ISS commander in 2023, called Mr Musk a liar after the billionaire claimed that Nasa astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore were stranded on the station due to political reasons. Mr Mogensen said Nasa had already confirmed that Ms Williams and Mr Wilmore would return to Earth in March as originally scheduled on SpaceX's Crew-9 mission. Mr Musk replied to the astronaut saying that he was 'fully retarded' and an 'idiot'. Ms Williams and Mr Wilmore arrived on the ISS on June 6 for the first crewed flight of Boeing's commercial space programme, which was meant to last for two weeks. But their quick stay turned into a space odyssey when their Boeing Starliner craft suffered a series of helium leaks and thruster problems after docking. Their return is scheduled for March 12.