UFC 316 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Mario Bautista Vs. Patchy Mix
HONOLULU, HAWAII - APRIL 19: Patchy Mix addresses the media ahead of his Bantamweight Grand Prix ... More Championship bout for Bellator 295 on April 19, 2023, at Blaisdell Arena in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
One of the more anticipated UFC debuts of recent times takes place on Saturday when former Bellator bantamweight champion steps into the Octagon at UFC 316 opposite the surging Mario Bautista. Mix makes his UFC debut on the UFC 316 fight card on short notice, replacing former UFC title challenger Marlon 'Chito' Vera on the Newark, New Jersey pay-per-view card.
We look at betting odds, line movement, preview, picks, and predictions for the Bautista vs. Mix matchup on the UFC 316 fight card, which takes place at Prudential Center. The UFC 316 PPV card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.
The main event of UFC 316 finds UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili against the man he took the title from, Sean O'Malley. Meanwhile, in the fight card's co-main event, two-time women's bantamweight champ Julianna Pena looks to do what she could not in her first title run, make a successful defense of her crown. Pena faces former two-time PFL lightweight tournament winner Kayla Harrison.
HONOLULU, HAWAII - APRIL 19: Patchy Mix addresses the media ahead of his Bantamweight Grand Prix ... More Championship bout for Bellator 295 on April 19, 2023, at Blaisdell Arena in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Patchy Mix (20-1) comes too the UFC following his release by PFL. The 31-year-old Mix is riding a seven-fight undefeated streak. He won the interim Bellator bantamweight title in April 2023 with a knockout victory over Raufeon Stots. Then, in November 2023, Mix unified the Bellator 135-pound titles with a submission victory over Sergio Pettis. In his most recent outing, Mix defended his crown with a split decision win over Magomed Magomedov in May 2024.
Mix's only professional defeat came in September 2020 when Juan Archuleta defeated him via unanimous decision in a contest for the vacant Bellator bantamweight crown.
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - OCTOBER 05: Mario Bautista reacts after a split-decision victory against Jose ... More Aldo of Brazil in a bantamweight fight during the UFC 307 event at Delta Center on October 05, 2024 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Mario Bautista (15-2) has been with the UFC since 2019. The 31-year-old opened his UFC run with a 2-2 record, but he is unbeaten since early 2022, with a run of seven straight wins. In his most recent outing, Bautista defeated Jose Aldo via split decision at UFC 307 in October 2024.
With Mix being somewhat of an unknown to many fight fans who spend most of their time focusing on the UFC, the opening odds for this contest saw Mix and Bautista both listed at -110. Those lines have moved as fight night nears. Today, Mix is the -170 betting favorite, while Bautista is listed as a +145 betting underdog.
*Odds via BetOnline
Age: 31
Height: 5' 9'
Reach: 69'
Stance: Switch
Age: 31
Height: 5'11'
Reach: 71.5'
Stance: Southpaw
Mix enters UFC 316 coming off a long layoff. His last bout took place in May 2024 when he went five rounds in beating Magomed Magomedov in defense of his Bellator bantamweight belt. When you combine that layoff with the fact that Mix is taking this fight on short notice, there is some room for concern when it comes to Mix's fitness level. However, Mix and his team know how important this fight is to his career and future UFC prospects, so I believe he will be ready for his Octagon debut.
I expect Bautista to move forward and to look to overwhelm Mix with striking. However, that pressure could allow Mix to implement his game plan of getting the fight to mat and working his ground skills (Mix has 13 submission wins).
The betting pick is for Mix to win via decision, with a chance of picking up a submission.
We will have more on the UFC 316 Bautista vs. Mix bout as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 316 pay-per-view card on fight night.
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