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Russia's Faltering Oil Flows Crimp Gains From Rally in Prices

Russia's Faltering Oil Flows Crimp Gains From Rally in Prices

Bloomberg4 hours ago

Russia failed to reap the full rewards of the recent rally in oil prices, or the increase in its own OPEC+ output target, as exports slid to a seven-week low.
Seaborne crude shipments averaged 3.31 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 15, a drop of 1% from the period to June 8. The more volatile weekly figure fell by about 440,000 barrels a day from the previous week's three-month high.

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Interest Rate Decision This Afternoon; War Rhetoric Heats Up
Interest Rate Decision This Afternoon; War Rhetoric Heats Up

Forbes

time37 minutes ago

  • Forbes

Interest Rate Decision This Afternoon; War Rhetoric Heats Up

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the U.S. against becoming involved in its war ... More with Israel. (Photo by) Key Takeaways: Markets fell on Tuesday as hostilities ratcheted up between Israel and Iran. The S&P 500 dropped 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%. Small cap stocks were down a full 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7%. The catalyst for yesterday's pullback was the situation between Israel and Iran. Things heated up further as President Trump hinted the U.S. could become involved if Iran doesn't surrender. In response, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country will not surrender and warned the U.S. against involvement. That news sent oil higher by 4% on the day. One asset that did respond to the situation in the Middle East was oil. On Tuesday, crude prices jumped 4% to over $73. Increasing oil prices could affect how the Fed approaches interest rate decisions. As I've mentioned many times in the past, if there is one thing that can change the inflation equation quickly, it's oil prices. Speaking of the Fed, later this afternoon, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its decision on interest rates. We will also get an update to the dot plot which maps out expectations for interest rates moving forward. Currently, the CME Fed Watch Tool puts the odds of any change to interest rates at almost 0%. I'm not surprised by that given the increase in oil prices and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and tariffs. A very positive development on Tuesday was the Senate passing of the Genius Act. This legislation provides for some much-needed oversight of stablecoins. Stablecoins are tied to less volatile assets like the U.S. dollar. Crypto assets, such as bitcoin, are in turn pegged to stablecoins. That relationship helps to moderate the volatility of crypto markets. Passage of the Genius Act lends both credibility and reliability in the crypto space which will likely lead to greater participation from financial institutions. The House needs to pass the legislation next before it can head to President Trump, who has said he would like to sign the legislation into law this summer. For today, I'm watching the situation in the Middle East and am interested to hear from Jerome Powell. I'm keeping my eye on both oil prices and the VIX as well. The VIX is back over 21 in premarket trading after having recently gotten back near its historical mean of 16. Also, tomorrow is Juneteenth and U.S. markets will be closed. I expect that to lead to many people taking advantage of the holiday to start a four-day weekend. Therefore, I'm expecting lower volumes on Friday. But I'll remind everyone that it's when things are quiet and volume is low that an otherwise innocuous event can cause a big move in the market. As always, I would stick with your investing plan and long-term objectives. tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.

G7 summit concludes after Trump's early exit and without major agreements on these key issues
G7 summit concludes after Trump's early exit and without major agreements on these key issues

Fast Company

timean hour ago

  • Fast Company

G7 summit concludes after Trump's early exit and without major agreements on these key issues

Six of the Group of Seven leaders discussed Russia's war in Ukraine and the Israel-Iran conflict but failed to reach major agreements on those and many other top issues — closing a summit that was forced to try and show how the wealthy nations' club might still shape global policy despite the early departure of U.S. President Donald Trump. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his counterparts from the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and Japan were joined during Tuesday's final sessions by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO chief Mark Rutte. 'We need support from allies and I'm here,' Zelenskyy said, before adding, 'We are ready for the peace negotiations, unconditional ceasefire. I think it's very important. But for this, we need pressure.' The remaining leaders agreed to jointly attempt to combat what they called non-market policies that could jeopardize global access to critical minerals. They also pledged to limit the downsides of artificial intelligence on jobs and the environment, while still embracing the potential of the 'technological revolution.' There was consensus on other issues, but though the summit was meant to showcase unity on top global concerns, no joint statement on the conflict in Ukraine was released. Zelenskyy had been set to meet with Trump while world leaders were gathering in the Canadian Rocky Mountain resort of Kananaskis, but that was scrapped. The U.S. also previously signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources. A senior Canadian official who briefed reporters at the summit said the U.S. opposed a joint statement on Ukraine amid its efforts to promote negotiations with Russia. The official said it only became clear during the summit's first day on Monday that there wouldn't be a joint statement — though other attendees suggested no consensus agreement was seriously on the table. Emily Williams, a spokeswoman for the prime minister, later retracted the briefing statement and said 'no proposed statement regarding Ukraine was distributed to other leaders.' In Trump's absence, the remaining six leaders held an extensive session on Ukraine. Lacking unanimity, individual leaders also met with Zelenskyy to reassure him of their support. The summit also was largely overshadowed by a showdown over Iran's nuclear program that could escalate. Israel launched an aerial bombardment campaign against Iran, and Iran has hit back with missiles and drones. French President Emmanuel Macron warned against the U.S. and other powers pushing for regime change in Iran, suggesting it could destabilize the greater Middle East. 'I believe the greatest mistake today would be to pursue regime change in Iran through military means, as that would lead to chaos,' Macron said. Before leaving, Trump joined the other leaders in issuing a statement saying Iran 'can never have a nuclear weapon' and calling for a 'de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.' Getting unanimity — even on a short and broadly worded statement — was a modest measure of success. Macron said Carney fulfilled his mission as G7 host by preserving the unity of the multilateral organization. 'We shouldn't ask the Canadian presidency to resolve every issue on earth today. That would be unfair,' said Macron, who will host the G7 next year. Carney said in his final remarks Tuesday evening that Trump's early exit was about the 'extraordinary' situation in the Middle East, not anything that occurred during the summit. 'There was no problem,' Canada's prime minister said. 'Mr. Trump felt it was better to be in Washington, and I can understand that.' Carney said Canada would impose new economic sanctions against Russia and was releasing its own statement offering 'unwavering support for a secure and sovereign Ukraine.' Asked if the U.S. pushed to soften any possible joint statement from the gathered leaders on Ukraine, Carney said he consulted with Trump while preparing the language his own country used. Still, Trump's departure only served to heighten the drama of a world on the verge of several firestorms — and of a summit deprived early of its most-watched world leader. ` 'We did everything I had to do at the G7,' Trump said while flying back to Washington. But things were getting awkward even before he left. After the famous photo from the G7 in 2018 featured Trump and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel displaying less-than-friendly body language, this year's edition included a dramatic eye-roll by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as French President Emmanuel Macron whispered something in her ear during a Monday roundtable. That, and concerns about the Russia-Ukraine war, little progress on the conflict in Gaza and now the situation in Iran have made things all the more tense — especially after Trump imposed severe tariffs on multiple nations that risk a global economic slowdown. Members of Trump's trade team remained in Canada to continue discussing tariffs, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who sat at the table as world leaders met with Zelenskyy. Trump's stance on Ukraine also put him fundamentally at odds with the other G7 leaders, who are clear that Russia is the aggressor in the war. The U.S. declined to join new sanctions against Russia, with Trump saying, 'When I sanction a country, that costs the U.S. a lot of money, a tremendous amount of money.' Trump also said at the summit that there would have been no war in Ukraine if G7 members hadn't expelled Putin from the organization in 2014 for annexing Crimea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the G7 now looks 'very pale and quite useless' compared to 'for example, such formats as the G20.' Additionally, the U.S. president has placed greater priority on addressing his grievances with other nations' trade policies than on collaboration with G7 allies. He has imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as 25% tariffs on autos. Trump is also charging a 10% tax on imports from most countries, though he could raise rates on July 9, after the 90-day negotiating period set by him would expire. One bright spot for Trump during the summit came when he and British Prime Minister Keir Starmersigned a trade framework that was previously announced in May. Trump said British trade was 'very well protected' because 'I like them, that's why. That's their ultimate protection.' But, while announcing that agreement, Trump brandished pages spelling out the deal and dropped them. Starmer stooped to pick them up, later explaining that he was compelled to ditch diplomatic decorum because anyone else trying to help risked spooking the president's security team. 'There were quite strict rules about who can get close to the president,' Starmer said, adding that he was 'just deeply conscious that in a situation like that it would not have been good for anybody else to have stepped forward.'

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