Covid and crackdowns slash ivory and pangolin scale trade

Mail & Guardian

05-05-2025

A Sunda pangolin in the wild after successful rehabilitation. Photo: © M. Shavez/1StopBrunei Wildlife/ifaw
There has been a 'remarkable and sustained disruption' in the trafficking of
A new
It presents an updated analysis of ivory and pangolin scale trafficking trends over the past decade, comparing the pre-pandemic period from 2015 to 2019 with the post-pandemic period from 2020 to 2024. The report is based on reported seizure data, open-source research and criminal intelligence and investigation findings from the commission.
In 2019, pangolin scales and ivory were being trafficked from Africa to Asia in extraordinary quantities. During that year, two
Rapid growth in the average shipment size pointed to the involvement of organised crime networks 'operating at an industrial scale'. This was because of the significant financial capital, business infrastructure and corrupt connections required to move large shipments across continents with such frequency.
Then in 2020, triggered by the global shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, pangolin scale and ivory seizures plummeted — and have remained comparatively low in the years since. 'The disruption was sudden and, remarkably, it appears to be holding.'
Apart from the effects of the pandemic, recent intelligence suggests that important law-enforcement efforts, fluctuations in price dynamics and changing market demands could be contributing to a substantial reduction in the illegal trade of both pangolin scales and ivory compared to the pre-Covid years, the report noted.
Since the disruption of the pandemic, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of multi-tonne seizures and a subsidence of the trend for combined shipments of both pangolin scales and ivory.
'While this could point to organised crime networks getting better at evading detection, fewer large consignments could also indicate a lower risk appetite for criminal networks to bear the financial losses caused in the event of law-enforcement interception,' it said.
There was also an increased proportion of multi-tonne seizures in Africa before export, which 'could point to a greater proactive law-enforcement response in African hotspots'.
No significant pangolin scale seizures have been reported at any seaport globally for three years or airport for more than five years. 'The relative absence of pangolin scale seizures at the demand side of the supply chain could suggest a diminished capacity of organised crime networks to move their goods out of Africa.'
While a shift appears to be emerging from Nigeria to other African countries for sending ivory shipments to Asia, persistent stockpile seizures in Nigeria suggest that it continues to be a
'Criminal networks appear to adopt a fluid approach to commodity choice, diversifying their investments to take advantage of high demand and rising market prices of either product.'
The flexibility of networks to adapt to changes in the market and deal interchangeably with pangolin scales and ivory highlights the importance of targeting the criminal networks, rather than the product, to address this problem.
Pangolin scale values have declined and stabilised at lower levels at both the supply and demand ends of the supply chain. Ivory values declined by about half across the supply chain in the pre-pandemic period, then were relatively stable in Africa in the post-pandemic period.
'Steady product prices, alongside the ongoing but lower levels of product seizures, could point to continued existence of market demand for both commodities,' the report said.
Although the pandemic generated the initial shock, strengthened and targeted law-enforcement efforts could also have contributed to fundamental changes in the
'The current intelligence picture suggests a major reduction in the trafficking of both commodities, which appears to have stabilised at relatively low levels compared to the pre-pandemic period.
'However, intelligence gaps remain on the extent to which pangolin scale and ivory shipments are successfully entering supply chains in Asia, despite the apparent slowing down of seizures.
The report found that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the trafficking of pangolin scales and ivory from Africa to Asia 'cannot be overstated'.
'It wreaked havoc on the transcontinental wildlife supply chains and upended the unsustainable trajectory of the trafficking of these commodities.'
The commission said that the current intelligence picture suggests a major reduction in the trafficking of both commodities, which appears to have stabilised at relatively low levels compared to the pre-pandemic period.
'Key questions include whether shipments are no longer being detected due to the use of more sophisticated concealment methodologies or changed modus operandi, or whether networks have procured better corruption settings at the receiver ports to facilitate more secure importation of goods.'
Limited data on pangolin population levels also means the possibility of a scarcity of product contributing to the drop in transnational trade 'cannot be ruled out', although the ongoing large stockpile seizures in Africa and steady pricing trends suggest this is unlikely to be the case just yet.
'While the root causes of the disruption in the trafficking landscape are likely varied and complex, investigation findings indicate that proactive law enforcement efforts targeting the primary criminal networks in African hotspots with arrests and prosecutions are having an important impact.
'Intelligence from Wildlife Justice Commission investigations has found that fear and breakdown in trust among the networks at the supply side is resulting in an increased perception of risk and a stalemate scenario between wholesale suppliers, Asian buyers, and brokers that is thwarting their ability to do business.'
Law-enforcement results achieved by Chinese and Nigerian authorities have had a 'highly disruptive impact' on the criminal landscape in a relatively short period of time, underlining the effectiveness of a consistent and targeted criminal justice approach, the report said.
Among the report's recommendations are a top-tier targeting strategy to map the criminal networks and identify and target the crime bosses, financiers and high-value linchpins who play a crucial role in the network's activities.
Further recommendations include deepening long-term, intelligence-led investigations to penetrate complex networks, corroborate intelligence and gather robust evidence and to target the
There should be joint investigations and intelligence sharing as they are essential to dismantle networks operating across multiple countries, it said.