After skipping the Preakness, what is expected from Sovereignty in the Belmont?

Miami Herald

a day ago

After several weeks of debate, the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner is back in horse racing's spotlight.
Sovereignty, whose connections opted to not run him in the Preakness Stakes, is back for the final race of the 2025 Triple Crown season.
The Bill Mott trainee is one of eight horses that will run in Saturday night's Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.
Much was made of the decision from Mott and Godolphin — Sovereignty's breeder and owner — to have the horse skip the Preakness, which is the second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown. The choice sparked renewed discussion about the scheduling of horse racing's three Triple Crown events and the modern viability of having three classics run in a five-week period.
But, at least temporarily, all that chatter can die down.
The focus for the next few days will be on Sovereignty's return in the Belmont Stakes, which features a loaded field. Journalism (the Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness Stakes winner), Baeza (third in the Derby) and Rodriguez (a highly touted Bob Baffert trainee) are expected to pose stiff competition for Sovereignty in the Belmont, which will again be contested at a shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga.
'He's improved, as many of these horses have,' Mott said following Monday evening's post position draw. 'This entire group, if you look at their form and the way they've developed over the course of this year, I think they've made steady progress. It should be an interesting race on Saturday.'
Sovereignty, who will begin the Belmont Stakes from post position No. 2 near the inside rail, is the second choice in the morning line odds at 2-1. Journalism is the morning line favorite for the 157th running of the Belmont at 8-5 odds.
'I thought being a small field, eight horses, I was going to be happy with whatever post position we got,' said Mott, the 71-year-old trainer who won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer. 'I don't think it's a big issue for him.'
Jockey Junior Alvarado, who has been aboard Sovereignty for all three of his wins, once again has the mount for Saturday's Belmont.
How do Sovereignty's connections expect him to fare in his first outing since defeating Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths over a sloppy and sealed Churchill Downs track to win the Kentucky Derby on May 3?
'Bill has been very happy with him since he's got up to Saratoga,' Michael Banahan, Godolphin's USA director of bloodstock, said Tuesday afternoon. 'He came out of the Derby in good shape, and he had a couple of breezes that Bill has put into him up there. He seems like he's responded well… So by all accounts, Bill and his team up in Saratoga have been particularly pleased with how well he's been doing.'
Sovereignty posted a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure in that Derby triumph, which delivered Godolphin its first victory in the Run for the Roses.
Godolphin, a global racing outfit, has tasted victory in the Belmont Stakes before. Essential Quality — who, like Sovereignty, is a Kentucky homebred for Godolphin — won the 2021 Belmont after finishing third in that year's Kentucky Derby.
This year's shortened Belmont distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga figures to work well for Sovereignty, whose three career wins have come at distances of 1 1/16 miles (twice) and 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.
'I would anticipate that'll be fine for him,' Banahan said of the Belmont distance for Sovereignty, who began his racing career with a fourth-place effort in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga last August. 'I suppose if it was a regular Belmont at Belmont Park, that'd be another question to answer going that far (1 1/2 miles). But it certainly looks like a mile and a quarter was well in his wheelhouse in the Derby and (we) anticipate that it shouldn't be any issue at Saratoga as well.'
Sovereignty looking to win both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes
History is on the line for Sovereignty on Saturday at Saratoga.
Sovereignty is aiming to become the first Kentucky Derby winner to also win the Belmont Stakes since Justify's Triple Crown campaign in 2018.
Because Sovereignty didn't compete in the Preakness Stakes, there's also another piece of horse racing history available to him. He's looking to become the first horse to win the Derby and the Belmont, but not the Preakness, since Thunder Gulch in 1995.
Only 11 horses in history have managed to win both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, but not the Preakness Stakes, in the same year. They are Zev (1923), Twenty Grand (1931), Johnstown (1939), Shut Out (1942), Middleground (1950), Needles (1956), Chateaugay (1963), Riva Ridge (1972), Bold Forbes (1976), Swale (1984) and Thunder Gulch (1995).
Of course, one of the reasons Sovereignty is in this position is because of the decision to not race in the Preakness Stakes.
Since Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018, four of the seven horses that won the Kentucky Derby have skipped the Preakness. That list includes Country House (who won the 2019 Derby following a postrace disqualification), Mandaloun (the 2021 Derby winner after first-place Medina Spirit failed a postrace drug test), Rich Strike (2022) and Sovereignty.
Mott was also Country House's trainer.
On Tuesday, the Herald-Leader asked Banahan what his thoughts were on the Triple Crown scheduling debate that was reignited by the choice to not run Sovereignty in the Preakness.
'I think that'll be up to the racetracks to really come to a decision on what they think is going to be the best for those three races in the Triple Crown, and going forward, if and how they need to evolve,' Banahan said. 'There have been probably plenty of debates about it, but we were pretty confident that it was the right thing to do for our horse and with the spacing of his races so far, he's responded very well with that.'
After running second in the Florida Derby on March 29, Sovereignty had a five-week break before running in and winning the Kentucky Derby. That's the same gap Sovereignty will have between the Derby and Saturday's Belmont.
'We looked at the opportunities that were going to present themselves for him after the Derby and we felt that the best thing for him, and to have a career through the whole season and maybe into next year as well, was spacing his races a little bit,' Banahan added. 'Bill Mott, who's trained horses for us for a long time, is very judicious about where he wants to place his horses and we put a lot of faith in the recommendations that he would give us as well.'