The useless war

Express Tribune

11 hours ago

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The US blundered into an unnecessary war. Without a rationale and out of some unexplained compulsion, stories have emerged how Trump made the decision on the spur. Iran-Israel war got more intense with greatly more lethal longer-range weapons joining the fracas. Israel and its people bore the brunt. Russia-Ukraine war goes on relentlessly. Israel's Gaza expedition has gained even greater intensity to balance the negative perception of Israel being bombed from the skies and half of Israeli population forced to live in shelters than the comfort of their homes.
India and Pakistan are in a kinetic pause. Houthis are well and alive, and the Red Sea is still their backyard. The Persian Gulf freeway is on tenterhooks while escalating oil prices can detract any plans anywhere of a rebounded economic outlook. US allies in the Gulf, where American forces are stationed — those nations have successfully negotiated a space for themselves to live in relative safety and comfort — were quite unnecessarily sucked into a war which could only bring even greater pain to a large swathe, and possibly most of Asia. What has the world, or America, gained by President Trump's action of entering the war with Israel against Iran?
No one knows how deep did the MOP GBU-57 penetrate. No one knows if Fordow still exists as a viable enrichment facility. It may still be safe, if not functional. At least part of it. It is possible that enriched fissile material may have already been moved somewhere. It is possible that Iran will recover the site or its infrastructure and reconstitute it at another location in another time and commence its journey to wherever it was heading.
The B-2s may have flown a flawless mission and all components of this mission may have, over a long range, coordinated exquisitely, but that is what they do as a staple, day-in and day-out. That is how an air force worth its name would execute any such mission. No gains there. They will drop their weapons where asked but can do little beyond it to know if they worked as intended and in the right chambers. Only the Iranians can tell if the damage indeed was sufficient to degrade if not obliterate Iran's nuclear programme effectively. Only Iranians know if the mission was a success.
The world is rightly concerned about where Iran may be heading with its nuclear programme. After all, the world formed and agreed to a Non-Proliferation Treaty as a collective and signed on it for joint responsibility in a rule-based order. If a signatory violates the covenant it is bound to be reprimanded and treated per the stipulated law. But this is not the only Agreement the world made to live in congeniality of a rule-based order. And that is the rub. There are a dozen others that the UN Charter carries as rules all must live by without exception, hubris and entitlement.
Civilisational hate cannot turn into wrath and impunity around superior force. Today's rule-based order is under threat of unravelling because of arrogated unilateralism and wholesale disregard of what is necessary for respectful coexistence. International covenants and statutes meant to conduct international and inter-state business were underwritten by the US as its prime guarantor. She cannot be seen to abdicate from this responsibility and render the global community to chaos, disorder and rampant instability. Nor must any nation assume its whim to dismiss the rules for coexistence around any perception of excusive power.
Unfortunately, how Iran has been dealt with in the last some weeks was haughtiness and disrespect. Rights and responsibilities go hand in hand. People cannot be denied one to carry the other. You don't like a people, or a nation or a state; you gather your wares and march into, with the deadliest arsenal mankind has known in the name of righting presumed wrong, or labeled wrong? Have a heart. People will react and respond. There are higher things in life than submission, subservience and servitude. Israel should have learnt its lesson from the people in Gaza. Iran has brought forth the lesson once again.
Finally, a ceasefire was agreed upon after a lot of huffing and puffing. President Trump as the leader of world's prime superpower exhibited his frustration for being coerced into a misjudgment in attacking Iran. The test that Iran was put through in the last two weeks was spectacularly handled by Iran, its leadership, its people and its depleted military capability.
Israel boasts of world's most efficient and effective military machine proven over time, except that it now faced a people who may be short on much but carried the depth of civilisational strength and confidence in their destiny. Militarily, they responded to Israel's provocations with resolve and spirit with the tools at their disposal while Israel despite all that they possessed could not overwhelm the adversary. There are issues that Iran needs to work on with the international community and it will do itself well by satisfying the world on its conduct as a responsible member of the global community — international agreements and statutes must hold. Israel though must be reined in, and Gazans and the Palestinians spared the genocide they have been under. Their blood is as valuable as any other.
The world in the larger sense, and the middle east in particular, has been saved from an inferno of another unnecessary war. If Asia was to light up China and Russia would have been sucked in. This would have been the Archduke Ferdinand moment for the twenty-first century world. It has returned from the brink. Israel's demeanour and swagger around its uncontested superiority against marginal forces stands punctured and called into serious question.
The myth is no more. Iran's regime will survive but Netanyahu's may be the only casualty. Trump saved himself some serious blushes. Having faltered into one, more likely to impulse than cold calculus, he is lucky to have restituted his credibility and his politics somewhat. What was intended to be gained through negotiations was bartered for an egoistic urge by joining an inconsequential war. The world must now deal with another Iran in another way, not so complementary to its earlier intent.
Iran has recovered its dignity and respect as a nation having gone through the test. It deserves to be mainstreamed in the global community. That alone will force it to respect and comply with international norms, agreements and statutes. For it, all proclivity among those who have arrogated exceptionalism as their right and unilateralism as their way must become equal and respectful subscribers to the global covenants against which we hope to judge Iran.
Gaza and Kashmir deserve their chance to fairness as a starter. This is the Yalta moment. Let Trump, Xi and Putin not fail the world. Bretton Woods, with alterations, needs to be tweaked and reinforced as the set of rules that the world community must live by in this century. Every war has a purpose. This one served none.