Western Conference Finals: Predictions for Minnesota Timberwolves vs OKC Thunder
The gauntlet that is the Western Conference in the NBA Playoffs has played out, and we have two teams that are ready to duel for a trip to the NBA Finals. The sixth seeded Minnesota Timberwolves have made quick work of their first two series, defeating both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games to get to this series. Meanwhile, the top seeded Thunder survived a seven-game knock down, drag out fight with the Denver Nuggets to get here.
This best-of-seven will start Tuesday night from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Each game will be available on ESPN except for game three, which will be an ABC game. There are no rest days built into this series, as this will go every other day until one of these teams has the four necessary wins to make the NBA Finals.
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Odds provided by the DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (1) OKC Thunder
Series winner: Minnesota (+265) OKC (-330)
Series spread: Minnesota +1.5 games (+120) OKC -1.5 games (-140)
Tyler's pick: Minnesota in 6
Styles make fights in the playoffs, and I think Minnesota's style is going to make this fight very interesting. Minnesota played the Thunder about as well as anyone, beyond your Dallas Mavericks. The key is that the Wolves have a lot of bodies they can throw at Shai, including Jaden McDaniels and SGA's own cousin, Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Heck, reserve guard Jaylen Clark held Shai to a 25% effective field goal percentage in the regular season on 70 attempts. Could Clark be a mid-series adjustment?
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As the world's premier Julius Randle hater, I must tip my cap to the Dallas-native for his play in the playoffs, because he has been absolutely phenomenal during this run, averaging 24 points per game on 51% shooting from the field. With OKC being positionally small outside of the centers, they won't have the size to match him with Gobert drawing Holmgren and Hartenstein. So, between Randle, Rudy Gobert, and last year's sixth man of the year Naz Reid, Minnesota has the size to force OKC's hand and keep them from going small.
Series props
Wolves win game 1 and series (+550)
Wolves +1.5 games (+120)
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Series total games over 5.5 (-135)
Rudy Gobert to average 10+ rebounds per game in series (-110)
One of the reasons I love the Wolves is because they get to catch OKC on short rest. OKC has played 96 minutes of playoff basketball since the last time Minnesota last played. If you remember, Dallas caught Minnesota in a similar spot last year after they beat the Nuggets in seven. I think we get a similar result here. This is the first time OKC has been this deep in the postseason since Kevin Durant left town. Minnesota, meanwhile, was just in this spot last year, as we all know. It's time for Ant to get one more skeleton in his closet.
David's pick: Oklahoma City in 6
My mind has gone two ways trying to decide this series. In one thought, the Thunder needed seven games to dispose of a Denver team that was not good after the first three or four guys. Their bench was bad during the regular season, and the role players that played were so hot and cold it was impossible to predict what they would contribute game to game. The Timberwolves are rested and beat up on a couple of bad teams to get their reps in, and are now poised to take advantage of the battered Thunder en route to their first NBA Finals. Then, in my prevailing thought, I realized how ridiculous this was. Oklahoma City is and has been a juggernaut for two years, despite falling early to Dallas a year ago. Their defense is unrivaled, and Shai is as good a closer as there is in the league. Minnesota has a tall task ahead of them, and Julius Randle has to be great for them to have a chance. This will be a Western Conference coronation, and the Thunder will put it all together to reach the NBA Finals.
Series props
Over 5.5 games (-135)
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Thunder to win 4-2 (+475)
Anthony Edwards to lead the series in assists (+600)
The first two picks are self-explanatory. This will be a longer series because these teams are very talented. The Thunder will ultimately win in six games, so getting these odds on that exact score provides a lot of value. For Edwards, the ball will be forced out of his hands a lot, and I am not sure why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the betting favorite in this category. Edwards is a great playmaker and if he is getting downhill a fair amount, this pick has a great chance.
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