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A road less Chinese? India may find a strategic path through Kazakhstan
A road less Chinese? India may find a strategic path through Kazakhstan

Economic Times

time2 hours ago

  • Economic Times

A road less Chinese? India may find a strategic path through Kazakhstan

TIL Creatives AI generated image for representation purposes. As China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to expand its influence over global trade infrastructure, India is exploring alternative pathways that reduce reliance on Beijing-led such emerging option is the Trans-Caspian Internationalindia-kazakhstan-middle-corridor-TITR-trade-route-alternative-to-china-briTransport Route (TITR), commonly known as the Middle Corridor, with Kazakhstan playing a central role in its has long objected to key BRI components, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which cut through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The Indian government has consistently raised concerns over CPEC's implications for territorial sovereignty. Also Read: Kazakhstan, logistics hub of the Eurasia, rises on the world stage In 2024, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal reiterated India's position in an interview with ANI, 'On PoK, we are very consistent in our position. We want to tell you, the whole of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, the union territories, they are part of India, an integral part of India. They were an integral part of India. They are an integral part of India and they will remain an integral part of India.' 'Our position on CPEC also is well known to you. We are not in favour of it. We are against it. It goes against our territorial integrity and sovereignty,' he added. But now, a quieter alternative is gaining traction, and it doesn't start in Beijing. It begins in Kazakhstan. According to The Economic Times, Kazakhstan is emerging as Eurasia's logistics pivot through the Middle Corridor. While India is not directly connected to this network, its rapid expansion presents a vital opportunity for New Delhi to reduce reliance on Chinese-dominated infrastructure and diversify its trade routes. The Middle Corridor spans over 4,250 km of rail and 500 km of seaway, connecting China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and Europe, bypassing both Russian and Chinese per Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation, the corridor was born out of geopolitical necessity following Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation, when Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia sought to hedge against dependence on unstable or adversarial 2017, the launch of the 826-km Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway cemented the route's viability, allowing transit from China to Turkey in 12 days, and to Prague in Transport Ministry reported that in 2024, traffic on TITR surged by 62%, reaching 4.5 million tonnes. Container transport grew by 170% to 56,500 TEUs, with 35,600 TEUs moved along the China-Europe leg, 27 times more than the previous year. The 2025 target is 5.2 million tonnes and 70,000 these numbers are just one part of the story. TITR's real significance lies in the infrastructure push that's coming, data The Economic Times reported, Kazakhstan is investing massively in its logistics network. In 2025 alone, it plans to modernise 13,000 km of roads and 6,100 km of railways, expand six airports, and build new maritime terminals, including a container hub in Aktau with a capacity of 240,000 TEUs. By 2029, another 11,000 km of rail lines will be upgraded, and new corridors like 'North' and 'Sedmiddle' are in the Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, speaking at the Foreign Investors' Council plenary on June 24 (as per Akorda, the official website of the Kazakh Presidency), described Kazakhstan's economic strategy as future-ready, sustainable, and globally integrated. The country reported a 6% GDP growth in the first half of 2025, driven by logistics, trade, and construction. This is the fastest in 12 an interview with Al Jazeera, Tokayev projected GDP growth of at least 5.5% for 2025, but added that this was 'not such an ambitious outcome,' as the government seeks additional growth India is not directly linked to the Middle Corridor, several geopolitical and economic factors could make TITR relevant to Indian per rating agency ICRA, India relies heavily on maritime trade via the Suez Canal, a route that has become vulnerable due to Red Sea instability and Houthi attacks.'The recent escalation of the conflict in the Red Sea has resulted in a 122% increase in freight cost in the past couple of months. As a result, the majority of global container shipping companies are deciding to avoid the Suez Canal and instead take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope,' ICRA to the World Bank, 95% of India's foreign trade by volume and 67% by value is seaborne. The Suez route is crucial for trade with Europe, North Africa, and the Americas, regions accounting for over 35% of India's total foreign TITR offers a land-sea multimodal alternative that could ease maritime congestion, reduce freight costs, and benefit Indian exporters, particularly those targeting European markets. More importantly, TITR intersects with India's International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km network linking Mumbai to Europe via Iran and Russia. While TITR and INSTC are separate, they share geographic nodes in the Caspian Sea and Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan. This overlap allows for synergy: Indian goods could travel via INSTC and switch to TITR segments to access Central Asia, Turkey, and delays in INSTC, caused partly by sanctions on Iran and slow progress on the Chabahar-Zahedan railway, its relevance has only grown. According to ORF, INSTC, initially proposed in 2000, has been ratified by 13 countries and comprises road, rail, and sea Eastern Route, or KTI Corridor, runs through Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, connecting Russia's Finnish border to Iran's Bandar Abbas reports that Russia and Iran are now fast-tracking key INSTC links like the Rasht-Astara railway, expected to be completed by 2027. The convergence of INSTC and TITR could thus form a formidable trans-Eurasian grid, one that reduces India's reliance on China or the Suez objections to the BRI, especially CPEC, are rooted in sovereignty concerns. More broadly, New Delhi remains wary of BRI's debt-driven model and China's centralised control over participating stands apart. It is not dominated by any one country, and is increasingly backed by Western actors, including the EU, Turkey, and 2024, Kazakhstan hosted its first working group meeting with China on TITR freight movement. As per the Kazakh Ministry of Transport, both countries agreed to increase container traffic on the China-Europe route to 600 trains annually by 2025–26, and up to 3,000 trains by China remains a partner, the corridor's multinational nature limits any single country's own connectivity vision, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is aligned with this trend. Despite recent Middle East tensions slowing IMEC's momentum, a senior MEA official during the 2023 G20 Summit said that the project remains a priority, reported The TITR, INSTC, and IMEC develop in tandem, they could collectively serve as a resilient alternative to the BRI, multiplying India's strategic choices and reducing its vulnerability to reform-driven model further strengthens the case for deeper India-Caspian ties. According to the country's state news agency, President Tokayev has introduced a 'prosecutorial filter' to protect foreign investors and launched a National Digital Investment Platform. So far, 137 projects worth $70 billion have been facilitated, and 140 legal amendments India, closer diplomatic and economic ties with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia can help secure energy supplies, mineral access and geopolitical balance in a region of growing global need not formally join TITR to benefit from it. What matters is that Kazakhstan's logistics vision, and the Middle Corridor it anchors, adds redundancy to the global trade architecture. The more corridors exist, the less India and others would need to depend on those dominated by strategic rivals.

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