Iran's supreme leader could face similar fate to Iraq's Saddam Hussein, Israeli defense minister says
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could face a similar fate to Iraq's late dictator Saddam Hussein, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz cautioned Tuesday.
'I warn the Iranian dictator from continuing to commit war crimes and firing missiles at Israeli citizens,' Katz said at a meeting of senior Israeli military officials in Tel Aviv.
'He should remember what was the fate of a dictator in a country neighboring Iran who chose this path against the state of Israel,' Katz added.
Some background: Hussein, who was president of Iraq from 1979 until his overthrow in 2003, invaded Iran in 1980 and launched a missile campaign against Israel in 1991. The Iran-Iraq war ended in a stalemate after eight years. Iraq's campaign against Israel lasted a little over a month during the First Gulf War, and Israel — under pressure from the United States — did not retaliate.
After US-led forces invaded Iraq in 2003, Saddam was quickly captured, put on trial and sentenced to death by hanging.
Katz's comment came after a senior US official told CNN over the weekend that the Israelis had an opportunity to kill Khamenei, but the US communicated to Israel that President Donald Trump opposed the plan.
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🔴 LIVE UPDATES: Iran armed forces urge evacuation of residents in major Israeli cities - Region
Ahram Online provides live coverage of the unfolding military confrontation between Israel and Iran as the two sides wage deadly strikes against one another for a fifth day. Related Tel Aviv restricts Israelis' departure as conflict with Tehran enters 4th day - as it happened Egypt among 21 countries urging de-escalation after Israeli strikes on Iran OIC broadcasting union condemns Israeli strike on Iranian state TV headquarters Israel escalated its 'Operation Rising Lion' on Tehran five days after bombing residential and military areas in Iran, killing at least 224 people and wounding over 1,200. As US President Donald Trump urged residents to evacuate—echoing Israeli calls for 330,000 people to leave central Tehran—the capital began to empty, with shops shuttered and traffic clogging westbound roads. In retaliation, Iran intensified its 'Operation True Promise III,' launching multiple waves of missiles into central Israel, where large explosions were reported overnight and air raid sirens wailed throughout the night. Earlier Iranian strikes forced the shutdown of the Haifa oil refinery, other industrial facilities, and the local power plant. At least 24 people have been killed in Israel, with hundreds more wounded. Meanwhile, Israel has imposed a ban on live TV feed streaming, preventing networks from broadcasting images of incoming Iranian missiles and the damage caused by the strikes. The US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz departed Southeast Asia as the Pentagon announced the deployment of 'additional capabilities' to the Middle East. Israeli Channel 11 claimed US forces had begun attacking targets inside Iran, an allegation Washington denied, stating American forces in the region remain in a "defensive posture and that has not changed." 20:30 Iran's armed forces chief of staff, Abdolrahim Mousavi, urged residents of the major Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv to evacuate, warning of imminent "punitive" attacks. "Punitive operations will be carried out soon," Mousavi said in a video statement carried by state TV on the fifth day of the deadly confrontation triggered by Israeli air raid on Friday. He added that previous attacks on Israel have so far only been for "deterrence" purposes. Referring to Israel, Mousavi said that "residents of the occupied territories, especially Tel Aviv and Haifa, are strongly urged to leave these areas for the sake of their lives". Mousavi told Israelis not to "fall victim" to "animalistic desires" of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which Tehran blames for the escalation. 19:40 US President Donald Trump issued a series of posts on Truth Social warning Iran's leadership and declaring American air dominance. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' he wrote, adding that while the US could target him, 'we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' Trump warned that 'our patience is wearing thin' amid continued threats to civilians and U.S. forces. In a separate post, Trump proclaimed 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' and asserted that the US now has 'complete and total control of the skies over Iran.' 18:55 Iran launched a new wave of attacks targeting Israel, state TV reported, as fighting between the longtime foes raged for a fifth straight day. "The tenth wave of Operation Honest Promise 3 against the occupied territories (Israel) has begun," state TV said, with the Tasnim news agency reporting that the new barrage consisted of "drone and missile attacks" by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 18:43 Iranian media reported widespread internet disruption on Tuesday as Israel and Iran traded fire for a fifth straight day. "Internet users in several provinces are reporting widespread internet disruption," the Ham Mihan newspaper reported. Other media carried similar reports. It was not immediately clear what caused the disruption. Iran has imposed internet restrictions since Israel launched its unprecedented aerial campaign against Iranian military and nuclear facilities on Friday. 18:27 President Donald Trump may decide that "further action" is needed to stop Iran's nuclear program, Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday, responding to speculation that the United States could intervene in the conflict. "The president has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens. He may decide to take further action to end Iranian enrichment," Vance said in a post on X. Emphasizing that 'whatever he does, that is his focus,' Vance stressed that Trump would act solely to advance 'the American people's goals.' 'The president has made clear that Iran cannot have uranium enrichment,' Vance wrote. Vance dismissed Iran's claims to peaceful nuclear energy, saying enrichment levels had 'far exceeded' civilian use and accused Tehran of violating its obligations under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 'I have yet to see a single good argument for why Iran needed to enrich uranium well above the threshold for civilian use,' he wrote. 18:05 The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) expressed deep alarm Monday over the killing of three Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) aid workers, bringing the death toll among IRCS personnel to four in just five days. 'We are deeply appalled by the tragic loss of three aid workers,' the ICRC said in a tweet, highlighting that these individuals were killed while carrying out lifesaving humanitarian work. The organization stressed that 'humanitarian workers are trying tirelessly to meet the growing needs resulting from the latest escalation of the conflict,' and called for all efforts to be made to ensure their safety. The ICRC extended its condolences to the families, friends, and colleagues of those killed. 📍 Iran | We are appalled by the killing of three aid workers from the Iranian Red Crescent Society (@Iran_RCS) while they were carrying out their humanitarian work. Our condolences go out to their families, friends, and colleagues. — ICRC (@ICRC) June 17, 2025 17:40 The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) has condemned Israel's 16 June airstrike on Iran's State broadcaster, IRIB, in Tehran, which killed at least two journalists during a live broadcast. The strike followed an Israeli evacuation warning and a statement by Defence Minister Israel Katz, who said Iran's State television and radio were 'about to disappear.' 'This was a targeted attack on a media facility, and we mourn the loss of our two colleagues,' said IFJ General Secretary Anthony Bellanger. 'Under international law, journalists are civilians, and deliberate attacks against them constitute war crimes.' The IFJ urged all parties to stop targeting journalists and media infrastructure, asserting that 'claiming a media outlet's editorial line is hostile to your cause does not justify an attack.' The Federation demanded accountability, calling for those responsible to be brought before international criminal courts. Reaffirming its Global Charter of Ethics, the IFJ called on journalists covering the conflict to uphold professional standards. It emphasized the duty to respect facts (Article 1), verify information despite urgency (Article 5), and avoid spreading hatred or discrimination (Article 9). Smoke billows from an explosion in southwest Tehran. AFP 17:10 The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned Tuesday that the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran is endangering civilian lives and public health across the region. 'The escalation of violence between Israel and Iran is extremely concerning — and is costing the lives of civilians, including children,' he wrote on X. 'The growing number of injured civilians are also distressing.' Tedros emphasized WHO's specific concern over recent attacks on nuclear infrastructure, noting that 'the targeting of nuclear sites may have immediate and long-term impacts on the environment and health of people in Iran and across the region.' The escalation of violence between Israel and Iran is extremely concerning — and is costing the lives of civilians, including children. The growing number of injured civilians are also distressing. @WHO's particular concern is the targeting of nuclear sites, which may have… — Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) June 17, 2025 17:30 Air raid sirens sounded in the Tel Aviv area and parts of northern Israel on Tuesday, the military said, after warning of a fresh salvo of incoming missiles fired from Iran. "A short while ago, sirens sounded in several areas across Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the state of Israel," a statement from the military said, with residents of the Tel Aviv area and parts of the north urged to seek shelter. بالفيديو | أضرار في موقف حافلات في "تل أبيب" الكبرى، بعد سقوط صاروخ إيراني — وكالة تسنيم للأنباء (@Tasnimarabic) June 17, 2025 17:00 Iranian media said several blasts were heard on Tuesday in the central city of Isfahan, which hosts multiple nuclear facilities, as Israel kept up its strikes for a fifth day. "Several explosions were heard in the east and north of Isfahan and air defences were activated against the hostile targets," the Mehr news agency reported. 16:30 US President Donald Trump said he wants a "real end" to the conflict between Israel and Iran, not just a ceasefire, as the arch foes traded fire for a fifth day on Tuesday. Trump said on Tuesday that he wanted a "complete give-up" by Iran in return for peace. "I'm not looking for a ceasefire, we're looking at better than a ceasefire," he told reporters on the plane home after cutting short his attendance at a Group of Seven summit in Canada. Trump again warned Iran against targeting US troops and assets in the Middle East, saying "we'll come down so hard, it'd be gloves off". 16:00 Qatar has been monitoring radiation levels in the Gulf as Israeli air strikes pound Iranian nuclear facilities, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Tuesday. "We are monitoring this on a daily basis," foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari told a news conference. "We have nothing to be concerned about right now, but obviously prolonged escalation will have unpredictable consequences." "We have to emphasise, when we are talking about the waters of the Gulf, it's the main source of water for all of us here in the region," Ansari said. "The international community has to make it very clear that any targeting of nuclear facilities, any targeting of fuel or energy facilities in this region, would have ramifications that are unknown to us in the Gulf." Ansari said Qatar's own facilities in the field were "secure" but condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure as "reckless". 15:28 The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday it believes Israeli airstrikes on Iran's Natanz enrichment site have had 'direct impacts' on the facility's underground centrifuge halls. This marks the first time the United Nations' nuclear watchdog has assessed damage from the strikes in the underground parts of Natanz, which is the main enrichment facility of Iran's nuclear program. 'Based on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday's attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz,' the agency said. Already, an above-ground enrichment hall had been destroyed, as well as electrical equipment that powered the facility. 14:25 Two loud explosions were heard from central and north Tehran on Tuesday, AFP correspondents reported, as the Iranian capital came under Israeli bombardment for a fifth straight day. There was no immediate comment on the cause or precise whereabouts of the twin blasts, which came after the Israeli military struck state television headquarters on Monday, causing significant damage and killing at least three people, the broadcaster said. Smoke plumes arise from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) corporation building in the north of Tehran after it was hit by an overnight Israeli strike. AFP 14:39 Flights carrying evacuees from Israel have arrived in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, authorities said on Tuesday, putting the two countries among the first to bring citizens home, Reuters said. Slovak authorities said the first evacuation flight with 73 people, including 25 Slovak tourists and five family members of Slovak diplomats working in Tel Aviv, had arrived in the capital Bratislava late on Monday. Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar said Slovakia had also helped bring citizens of other countries to Europe, including 15 Poles, mainly children, 14 Czechs, nine Austrians, two Slovenians and one citizen each of Estonia, Spain and Malaysia. Another Central European country, Poland, said that the evacuation of 200 Poles from Israel was planned for Wednesday and Thursday. On Tuesday, the Polish foreign ministry said it planned to use two planes from Egypt and Jordan for the evacuation, the first of which would take off on Wednesday. People arrive with their luggage before the departure of a bus slated to evacuate foreign passport holders, mainly European and Polish, out of Israel, at a bus stop in Tel Aviv. AFP 14:21 Israeli newspaper Haaretz has reported that a growing number of Israelis are fleeing the country by sea to Cyprus or via private flights, defying new government-imposed travel restrictions that bar citizens from leaving amid the deepening regional conflict. The Israeli government has instructed domestic airlines not to allow citizens to depart on repatriation flights. Transport Minister Miri Regev claimed the measure was meant to prevent overcrowding at airports and prioritize the return of over 100,000 Israelis stranded abroad since Israel launched strikes on Iran last Friday. Israel's airspace has been closed since the start of the escalation, and national carrier El Al has cancelled all scheduled flights through 17 June, with further cancellations until at least 23 June. The airline is reportedly reallocating aircraft for repatriation missions. However, the fact that only foreign nationals are being permitted to leave has raised questions about whether authorities are trying to suppress images of a mass exodus. This isn't the first sign. Following the start of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023, over 12,000 Israelis permanently left the country in that month alone—four times the number from the previous year, according to AP. Another estimated 30,000 departed over the following five months, with fewer citizens choosing to return. 14:03 Israel's attacks on Iran have broadened its conflicts in the region to a level that poses a global threat, Jordan's King Abdullah said in a speech in European parliament, Reuters reports. "With Israel's expansion of its offensive to include Iran, there is no telling where the boundaries of this battleground will end," the Jordanian monarch said. "And that is a threat to people everywhere. Ultimately, this conflict must end", the Jordanian King added. 13:50 US President Donald Trump disputed his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, on how Iran's nuclear capabilities were developed and said Iran was on the verge of obtaining a nuclear weapon when Israel struck in recent days. Asked where he stands on how close Iran was to getting a nuclear deal, given what Gabbard testified just months ago, Trump told reporters on Air Force One, 'Very close.' When pressed on Gabbard's testimony that they weren't, Trump said, 'I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having it.' Gabbard testified in March that the intelligence community 'continues to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. A new CNN investigation has revealed a significant gap between Israeli rhetoric and US intelligence assessments regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities. 13:43 Russia said it was ready to act as a peace broker between Israel and Iran, but that Israel was showing reluctance to accept outside mediation. "At present, we see a reluctance, at least on the part of Israel, to resort to any mediation services or to embark on a peaceful path towards a settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. 13:05 A cyberattack on crippled Sepah Bank, one of Iran's vital state-owned banks, Fars news agency reported. "A cyberattack targeted the infrastructure of Sepah Bank, causing disruptions to the institution's online services," said the Iranian agency, adding the issue was expected to be resolved within the next few hours. 13:00 The Israeli ambassador to Washington threatened Tehran, saying the "Pagers" operation against Hezbollah would be minor compared to "the major surprise" Israel is preparing against Iran this week. 12:55 Iranian police announced the arrest of an Israeli Mossad agent in the city of Karaj, west of Tehran, on charges of manufacturing and testing explosives. 12:27 Iran Revolutionary Guards said it had targeted a center belonging to Israel's spy agency in Tel Aviv, Mossad. In a statement read on state television, the Guard said it had 'struck a military intelligence center of the Zionist entity's army, Aman, and the Zionist regime's terrorist operations planning centre, the Mossad, in Tel Aviv." "The center is currently on fire," it added. Meanwhile, the spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Defense said that Tehran "used one of our qualitative missiles for the first time, and the Zionist regime was unable to detect it." "The enemy cannot withstand a long war, and we will break the back of the Zionist regime," he added. Rockets rain down on Tel Aviv in the morning of the fifth day. 12:11 Iranian media are reporting that three people were rescued from the rubble of a residential building that was struck by the Israeli military. The IRNA news agency published footage of the Red Crescent rescue operation, but did not provide further details. 12:00 More than 600 foreign nationals have crossed from Iran into neighbouring Azerbaijan since Israel began attacking the country last Friday, a government official in Baku said. "Since the start of the military escalation between Israel and Iran, more than 600 citizens of 17 countries have been evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan," the government source told AFP. "Evacuees are transported from the border to Baku International Airport and flown to their home countries on international flights." 11:45 The Thai government has ordered its military to prepare planes to evacuate citizens from Israel and Iran, a spokesperson said Tuesday, as the two sides exchanged missile fire for a fifth day, AFP reports. An estimated 40,000 Thai nationals currently live in Israel, most working on farms under a government labour scheme, and about 300 nationals live in Iran. Government spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub told reporters after a cabinet meeting, "We are ready to evacuate people and have coordinated with the military to prepare planes to bring them home from Israel and Iran". 11:00 Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Lipavský said he looks forward to Egypt's assistance in evacuating Czech nationals from Israel through Egyptian territory. According to the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the request came during a phone call between Lipavský and Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty on Monday, 16 June. The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced via social platform X that the country will dispatch a repatriation flight on Monday to evacuate its citizens from Israel. The ministry also updated its travel advisories, urging citizens to avoid travel to Israel. On Friday, Czech nationals were strongly advised to leave Iran immediately. According to Czech media reports, approximately 144 Czech citizens are currently in Israel, 50 in Jordan, 55 in Lebanon, and two in Iran. 10:55 Iran said it destroyed strategic targets in Israel overnight using drones. "Various types of destructive drones, equipped with precise destruction and targeting capabilities, destroyed strategic positions of the Zionist regime in Tel Aviv and Haifa," General Kioumars Heidari, commander of the army's ground forces, was quoted as saying by state television. 10:50 China accused Donald Trump of "pouring oil" on the mounting conflict between Iran and Israel, after he warned Tehran residents to "immediately evacuate". "Fanning the flames, pouring oil, making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict," foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said when asked about Trump's remarks at a regular news conference. 10:40 US President Donald Trump said he wanted a 'real end' to the nuclear problem with Iran, with Iran 'giving up entirely' on nuclear weapons, according to comments that a CBS News reporter on X posted. He wanted 'better than a ceasefire," he said. He was still somewhat opaque when reporters pressed about what that might mean. CBS News reporter said Trump made the comments during his midnight departure from Canada, where he attended the Group of Seven nations summit. He predicted that Israel would not be slowing its attacks on Iran. He said, "You're going to find out over the next two days. You're going to find out. Nobody's slowed up so far". The president added that he 'may' send US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff or vice-president JD Vance to meet with Iran. However, he said, 'It depends on what happens when I get back'. Asked whether US involvement would destroy the Iranian nuclear programme, he said he hoped their programme would be 'wiped out long before that' 10:12 Two explosions were heard in Iran's northwestern Tabriz City. "Two explosions occurred in Tabriz five minutes apart," the Ham Mihan newspaper reported. "Thick smoke was seen around Tabriz Tuesday morning after the explosion," Mehr news agency reported, publishing a video from the city, which lies more than 600 kilometres (375 miles) from Tehran and is home to a significant air force base targeted by Israel in recent days. The news agency also said that an Israeli projectile hit a checkpoint in the city of Kashan in the central province of Isfahan this morning, killing at least three people and wounding four others. The agency quoted Akbar Salehi, deputy security officer to the governor of Isfahan. 10:10 Israel's army warned that it had detected new missiles launched from Iran, but now dropped an alert and said people no longer needed to take cover. "It is now permitted to leave protected spaces in northern Israel," the Israeli army said on Telegram. It had previously warned that missiles launched from Iran were heading toward northern Israel, saying it was working to intercept the threat. Search and rescue teams are operating in several locations where 'reports of fallen projectiles were received', an Israeli police statement said. 'Missiles and shrapnel fell in the Tel Aviv area, causing material damage but no injuries,' it added. 09:41 Oil prices rallied Tuesday after Donald Trump urged Tehran residents to evacuate, stoking fresh fears of all-out war. On Tuesday, oil prices spiked around two percent before paring some gains. Still, the comments kept investors on edge amid warnings that an escalation of the crisis could send the commodity soaring again. 09:27 The Israeli army claimed it killed Iran's top military commander, Ali Shadmani, in an overnight strike, calling him the closest figure to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In a statement, the military said following "a sudden opportunity overnight, the (Israeli air force) struck a staffed command centre in the heart of Tehran" and assassinated Shadmani, the wartime Chief of Staff. 09:05 Loud booms were heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, AFP journalists reported, after air raid sirens sounded in several parts of Israel and the army warned of incoming Iranian missiles. "A short while ago, sirens sounded in several areas across Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the State of Israel," the military said in a statement, adding that the air force was "operating to intercept and strike where necessary to eliminate the threat." 09:03 Israel's army said it conducted "several extensive strikes" on military targets in western Iran overnight, as the arch-foes traded fire for a fifth straight day. "During the strikes, dozens of surface-to-surface missile storage and launch infrastructure were struck," the army claimed in a statement. "In addition, surface-to-air missile launchers and UAV storage sites were struck in western Iran," it added. After a new wave of mutual strikes, both countries activated their missile defence systems overnight into Tuesday, with Israel's army urging residents to seek shelter from incoming Iranian missiles several times during the night. 09:00 US President Donald Trump denied reports that he had rushed back to Washington from the G7 summit in Canada to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, saying his early departure 'has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that,' without elaborating. "Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. "Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!" Macron had suggested that the United States was ready to make a diplomatic overture to Iran. "There was an offer made for a meeting and an exchange," Macron told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
Al-Ahram Weekly
an hour ago
- Al-Ahram Weekly
🔴 LIVE UPDATES: Iran announces new wave of attacks on Israel - Region
Ahram Online provides live coverage of the unfolding military confrontation between Israel and Iran as the two sides wage deadly strikes against one another for a fifth day. Related Tel Aviv restricts Israelis' departure as conflict with Tehran enters 4th day - as it happened Egypt among 21 countries urging de-escalation after Israeli strikes on Iran OIC broadcasting union condemns Israeli strike on Iranian state TV headquarters Israel escalated its 'Operation Rising Lion' on Tehran five days after bombing residential and military areas in Iran, killing at least 224 people and wounding over 1,200. As US President Donald Trump urged residents to evacuate—echoing Israeli calls for 330,000 people to leave central Tehran—the capital began to empty, with shops shuttered and traffic clogging westbound roads. In retaliation, Iran intensified its 'Operation True Promise III,' launching multiple waves of missiles into central Israel, where large explosions were reported overnight and air raid sirens wailed throughout the night. Earlier Iranian strikes forced the shutdown of the Haifa oil refinery, other industrial facilities, and the local power plant. At least 24 people have been killed in Israel, with hundreds more wounded. Meanwhile, Israel has imposed a ban on live TV feed streaming, preventing networks from broadcasting images of incoming Iranian missiles and the damage caused by the strikes. The US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz departed Southeast Asia as the Pentagon announced the deployment of 'additional capabilities' to the Middle East. Israeli Channel 11 claimed US forces had begun attacking targets inside Iran, an allegation Washington denied, stating American forces in the region remain in a "defensive posture and that has not changed." 19:40 US President Donald Trump issued a series of posts on Truth Social warning Iran's leadership and declaring American air dominance. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' he wrote, adding that while the US could target him, 'we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' Trump warned that 'our patience is wearing thin' amid continued threats to civilians and U.S. forces. In a separate post, Trump proclaimed 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' and asserted that the US now has 'complete and total control of the skies over Iran.' 18:55 Iran launched a new wave of attacks targeting Israel, state TV reported, as fighting between the longtime foes raged for a fifth straight day. "The tenth wave of Operation Honest Promise 3 against the occupied territories (Israel) has begun," state TV said, with the Tasnim news agency reporting that the new barrage consisted of "drone and missile attacks" by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 18:43 Iranian media reported widespread internet disruption on Tuesday as Israel and Iran traded fire for a fifth straight day. "Internet users in several provinces are reporting widespread internet disruption," the Ham Mihan newspaper reported. Other media carried similar reports. It was not immediately clear what caused the disruption. Iran has imposed internet restrictions since Israel launched its unprecedented aerial campaign against Iranian military and nuclear facilities on Friday. 18:27 President Donald Trump may decide that "further action" is needed to stop Iran's nuclear program, Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday, responding to speculation that the United States could intervene in the conflict. "The president has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens. He may decide to take further action to end Iranian enrichment," Vance said in a post on X. Emphasizing that 'whatever he does, that is his focus,' Vance stressed that Trump would act solely to advance 'the American people's goals.' 'The president has made clear that Iran cannot have uranium enrichment,' Vance wrote. Vance dismissed Iran's claims to peaceful nuclear energy, saying enrichment levels had 'far exceeded' civilian use and accused Tehran of violating its obligations under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 'I have yet to see a single good argument for why Iran needed to enrich uranium well above the threshold for civilian use,' he wrote. 18:05 The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) expressed deep alarm Monday over the killing of three Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) aid workers, bringing the death toll among IRCS personnel to four in just five days. 'We are deeply appalled by the tragic loss of three aid workers,' the ICRC said in a tweet, highlighting that these individuals were killed while carrying out lifesaving humanitarian work. The organization stressed that 'humanitarian workers are trying tirelessly to meet the growing needs resulting from the latest escalation of the conflict,' and called for all efforts to be made to ensure their safety. The ICRC extended its condolences to the families, friends, and colleagues of those killed. 📍 Iran | We are appalled by the killing of three aid workers from the Iranian Red Crescent Society (@Iran_RCS) while they were carrying out their humanitarian work. Our condolences go out to their families, friends, and colleagues. — ICRC (@ICRC) June 17, 2025 17:40 The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) has condemned Israel's 16 June airstrike on Iran's State broadcaster, IRIB, in Tehran, which killed at least two journalists during a live broadcast. The strike followed an Israeli evacuation warning and a statement by Defence Minister Israel Katz, who said Iran's State television and radio were 'about to disappear.' 'This was a targeted attack on a media facility, and we mourn the loss of our two colleagues,' said IFJ General Secretary Anthony Bellanger. 'Under international law, journalists are civilians, and deliberate attacks against them constitute war crimes.' The IFJ urged all parties to stop targeting journalists and media infrastructure, asserting that 'claiming a media outlet's editorial line is hostile to your cause does not justify an attack.' The Federation demanded accountability, calling for those responsible to be brought before international criminal courts. Reaffirming its Global Charter of Ethics, the IFJ called on journalists covering the conflict to uphold professional standards. It emphasized the duty to respect facts (Article 1), verify information despite urgency (Article 5), and avoid spreading hatred or discrimination (Article 9). Smoke billows from an explosion in southwest Tehran. AFP 17:10 The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warned Tuesday that the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran is endangering civilian lives and public health across the region. 'The escalation of violence between Israel and Iran is extremely concerning — and is costing the lives of civilians, including children,' he wrote on X. 'The growing number of injured civilians are also distressing.' Tedros emphasized WHO's specific concern over recent attacks on nuclear infrastructure, noting that 'the targeting of nuclear sites may have immediate and long-term impacts on the environment and health of people in Iran and across the region.' The escalation of violence between Israel and Iran is extremely concerning — and is costing the lives of civilians, including children. The growing number of injured civilians are also distressing. @WHO's particular concern is the targeting of nuclear sites, which may have… — Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) June 17, 2025 17:30 Air raid sirens sounded in the Tel Aviv area and parts of northern Israel on Tuesday, the military said, after warning of a fresh salvo of incoming missiles fired from Iran. "A short while ago, sirens sounded in several areas across Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the state of Israel," a statement from the military said, with residents of the Tel Aviv area and parts of the north urged to seek shelter. بالفيديو | أضرار في موقف حافلات في "تل أبيب" الكبرى، بعد سقوط صاروخ إيراني — وكالة تسنيم للأنباء (@Tasnimarabic) June 17, 2025 17:00 Iranian media said several blasts were heard on Tuesday in the central city of Isfahan, which hosts multiple nuclear facilities, as Israel kept up its strikes for a fifth day. "Several explosions were heard in the east and north of Isfahan and air defences were activated against the hostile targets," the Mehr news agency reported. 16:30 US President Donald Trump said he wants a "real end" to the conflict between Israel and Iran, not just a ceasefire, as the arch foes traded fire for a fifth day on Tuesday. Trump said on Tuesday that he wanted a "complete give-up" by Iran in return for peace. "I'm not looking for a ceasefire, we're looking at better than a ceasefire," he told reporters on the plane home after cutting short his attendance at a Group of Seven summit in Canada. Trump again warned Iran against targeting US troops and assets in the Middle East, saying "we'll come down so hard, it'd be gloves off". 16:00 Qatar has been monitoring radiation levels in the Gulf as Israeli air strikes pound Iranian nuclear facilities, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Tuesday. "We are monitoring this on a daily basis," foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari told a news conference. "We have nothing to be concerned about right now, but obviously prolonged escalation will have unpredictable consequences." "We have to emphasise, when we are talking about the waters of the Gulf, it's the main source of water for all of us here in the region," Ansari said. "The international community has to make it very clear that any targeting of nuclear facilities, any targeting of fuel or energy facilities in this region, would have ramifications that are unknown to us in the Gulf." Ansari said Qatar's own facilities in the field were "secure" but condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure as "reckless". 15:28 The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday it believes Israeli airstrikes on Iran's Natanz enrichment site have had 'direct impacts' on the facility's underground centrifuge halls. This marks the first time the United Nations' nuclear watchdog has assessed damage from the strikes in the underground parts of Natanz, which is the main enrichment facility of Iran's nuclear program. 'Based on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday's attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz,' the agency said. Already, an above-ground enrichment hall had been destroyed, as well as electrical equipment that powered the facility. 14:25 Two loud explosions were heard from central and north Tehran on Tuesday, AFP correspondents reported, as the Iranian capital came under Israeli bombardment for a fifth straight day. There was no immediate comment on the cause or precise whereabouts of the twin blasts, which came after the Israeli military struck state television headquarters on Monday, causing significant damage and killing at least three people, the broadcaster said. Smoke plumes arise from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) corporation building in the north of Tehran after it was hit by an overnight Israeli strike. AFP 14:39 Flights carrying evacuees from Israel have arrived in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, authorities said on Tuesday, putting the two countries among the first to bring citizens home, Reuters said. Slovak authorities said the first evacuation flight with 73 people, including 25 Slovak tourists and five family members of Slovak diplomats working in Tel Aviv, had arrived in the capital Bratislava late on Monday. Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar said Slovakia had also helped bring citizens of other countries to Europe, including 15 Poles, mainly children, 14 Czechs, nine Austrians, two Slovenians and one citizen each of Estonia, Spain and Malaysia. Another Central European country, Poland, said that the evacuation of 200 Poles from Israel was planned for Wednesday and Thursday. On Tuesday, the Polish foreign ministry said it planned to use two planes from Egypt and Jordan for the evacuation, the first of which would take off on Wednesday. People arrive with their luggage before the departure of a bus slated to evacuate foreign passport holders, mainly European and Polish, out of Israel, at a bus stop in Tel Aviv. AFP 14:21 Israeli newspaper Haaretz has reported that a growing number of Israelis are fleeing the country by sea to Cyprus or via private flights, defying new government-imposed travel restrictions that bar citizens from leaving amid the deepening regional conflict. The Israeli government has instructed domestic airlines not to allow citizens to depart on repatriation flights. Transport Minister Miri Regev claimed the measure was meant to prevent overcrowding at airports and prioritize the return of over 100,000 Israelis stranded abroad since Israel launched strikes on Iran last Friday. Israel's airspace has been closed since the start of the escalation, and national carrier El Al has cancelled all scheduled flights through 17 June, with further cancellations until at least 23 June. The airline is reportedly reallocating aircraft for repatriation missions. However, the fact that only foreign nationals are being permitted to leave has raised questions about whether authorities are trying to suppress images of a mass exodus. This isn't the first sign. Following the start of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023, over 12,000 Israelis permanently left the country in that month alone—four times the number from the previous year, according to AP. Another estimated 30,000 departed over the following five months, with fewer citizens choosing to return. 14:03 Israel's attacks on Iran have broadened its conflicts in the region to a level that poses a global threat, Jordan's King Abdullah said in a speech in European parliament, Reuters reports. "With Israel's expansion of its offensive to include Iran, there is no telling where the boundaries of this battleground will end," the Jordanian monarch said. "And that is a threat to people everywhere. Ultimately, this conflict must end", the Jordanian King added. 13:50 US President Donald Trump disputed his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, on how Iran's nuclear capabilities were developed and said Iran was on the verge of obtaining a nuclear weapon when Israel struck in recent days. Asked where he stands on how close Iran was to getting a nuclear deal, given what Gabbard testified just months ago, Trump told reporters on Air Force One, 'Very close.' When pressed on Gabbard's testimony that they weren't, Trump said, 'I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having it.' Gabbard testified in March that the intelligence community 'continues to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. A new CNN investigation has revealed a significant gap between Israeli rhetoric and US intelligence assessments regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities. 13:43 Russia said it was ready to act as a peace broker between Israel and Iran, but that Israel was showing reluctance to accept outside mediation. "At present, we see a reluctance, at least on the part of Israel, to resort to any mediation services or to embark on a peaceful path towards a settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. 13:05 A cyberattack on crippled Sepah Bank, one of Iran's vital state-owned banks, Fars news agency reported. "A cyberattack targeted the infrastructure of Sepah Bank, causing disruptions to the institution's online services," said the Iranian agency, adding the issue was expected to be resolved within the next few hours. 13:00 The Israeli ambassador to Washington threatened Tehran, saying the "Pagers" operation against Hezbollah would be minor compared to "the major surprise" Israel is preparing against Iran this week. 12:55 Iranian police announced the arrest of an Israeli Mossad agent in the city of Karaj, west of Tehran, on charges of manufacturing and testing explosives. 12:27 Iran Revolutionary Guards said it had targeted a center belonging to Israel's spy agency in Tel Aviv, Mossad. In a statement read on state television, the Guard said it had 'struck a military intelligence center of the Zionist entity's army, Aman, and the Zionist regime's terrorist operations planning centre, the Mossad, in Tel Aviv." "The center is currently on fire," it added. Meanwhile, the spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Defense said that Tehran "used one of our qualitative missiles for the first time, and the Zionist regime was unable to detect it." "The enemy cannot withstand a long war, and we will break the back of the Zionist regime," he added. Rockets rain down on Tel Aviv in the morning of the fifth day. 12:11 Iranian media are reporting that three people were rescued from the rubble of a residential building that was struck by the Israeli military. The IRNA news agency published footage of the Red Crescent rescue operation, but did not provide further details. 12:00 More than 600 foreign nationals have crossed from Iran into neighbouring Azerbaijan since Israel began attacking the country last Friday, a government official in Baku said. "Since the start of the military escalation between Israel and Iran, more than 600 citizens of 17 countries have been evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan," the government source told AFP. "Evacuees are transported from the border to Baku International Airport and flown to their home countries on international flights." 11:45 The Thai government has ordered its military to prepare planes to evacuate citizens from Israel and Iran, a spokesperson said Tuesday, as the two sides exchanged missile fire for a fifth day, AFP reports. An estimated 40,000 Thai nationals currently live in Israel, most working on farms under a government labour scheme, and about 300 nationals live in Iran. Government spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub told reporters after a cabinet meeting, "We are ready to evacuate people and have coordinated with the military to prepare planes to bring them home from Israel and Iran". 11:00 Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Lipavský said he looks forward to Egypt's assistance in evacuating Czech nationals from Israel through Egyptian territory. According to the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the request came during a phone call between Lipavský and Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty on Monday, 16 June. The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced via social platform X that the country will dispatch a repatriation flight on Monday to evacuate its citizens from Israel. The ministry also updated its travel advisories, urging citizens to avoid travel to Israel. On Friday, Czech nationals were strongly advised to leave Iran immediately. According to Czech media reports, approximately 144 Czech citizens are currently in Israel, 50 in Jordan, 55 in Lebanon, and two in Iran. 10:55 Iran said it destroyed strategic targets in Israel overnight using drones. "Various types of destructive drones, equipped with precise destruction and targeting capabilities, destroyed strategic positions of the Zionist regime in Tel Aviv and Haifa," General Kioumars Heidari, commander of the army's ground forces, was quoted as saying by state television. 10:50 China accused Donald Trump of "pouring oil" on the mounting conflict between Iran and Israel, after he warned Tehran residents to "immediately evacuate". "Fanning the flames, pouring oil, making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict," foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said when asked about Trump's remarks at a regular news conference. 10:40 US President Donald Trump said he wanted a 'real end' to the nuclear problem with Iran, with Iran 'giving up entirely' on nuclear weapons, according to comments that a CBS News reporter on X posted. He wanted 'better than a ceasefire," he said. He was still somewhat opaque when reporters pressed about what that might mean. CBS News reporter said Trump made the comments during his midnight departure from Canada, where he attended the Group of Seven nations summit. He predicted that Israel would not be slowing its attacks on Iran. He said, "You're going to find out over the next two days. You're going to find out. Nobody's slowed up so far". The president added that he 'may' send US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff or vice-president JD Vance to meet with Iran. However, he said, 'It depends on what happens when I get back'. Asked whether US involvement would destroy the Iranian nuclear programme, he said he hoped their programme would be 'wiped out long before that' 10:12 Two explosions were heard in Iran's northwestern Tabriz City. "Two explosions occurred in Tabriz five minutes apart," the Ham Mihan newspaper reported. "Thick smoke was seen around Tabriz Tuesday morning after the explosion," Mehr news agency reported, publishing a video from the city, which lies more than 600 kilometres (375 miles) from Tehran and is home to a significant air force base targeted by Israel in recent days. The news agency also said that an Israeli projectile hit a checkpoint in the city of Kashan in the central province of Isfahan this morning, killing at least three people and wounding four others. The agency quoted Akbar Salehi, deputy security officer to the governor of Isfahan. 10:10 Israel's army warned that it had detected new missiles launched from Iran, but now dropped an alert and said people no longer needed to take cover. "It is now permitted to leave protected spaces in northern Israel," the Israeli army said on Telegram. It had previously warned that missiles launched from Iran were heading toward northern Israel, saying it was working to intercept the threat. Search and rescue teams are operating in several locations where 'reports of fallen projectiles were received', an Israeli police statement said. 'Missiles and shrapnel fell in the Tel Aviv area, causing material damage but no injuries,' it added. 09:41 Oil prices rallied Tuesday after Donald Trump urged Tehran residents to evacuate, stoking fresh fears of all-out war. On Tuesday, oil prices spiked around two percent before paring some gains. Still, the comments kept investors on edge amid warnings that an escalation of the crisis could send the commodity soaring again. 09:27 The Israeli army claimed it killed Iran's top military commander, Ali Shadmani, in an overnight strike, calling him the closest figure to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In a statement, the military said following "a sudden opportunity overnight, the (Israeli air force) struck a staffed command centre in the heart of Tehran" and assassinated Shadmani, the wartime Chief of Staff. 09:05 Loud booms were heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, AFP journalists reported, after air raid sirens sounded in several parts of Israel and the army warned of incoming Iranian missiles. "A short while ago, sirens sounded in several areas across Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the State of Israel," the military said in a statement, adding that the air force was "operating to intercept and strike where necessary to eliminate the threat." 09:03 Israel's army said it conducted "several extensive strikes" on military targets in western Iran overnight, as the arch-foes traded fire for a fifth straight day. "During the strikes, dozens of surface-to-surface missile storage and launch infrastructure were struck," the army claimed in a statement. "In addition, surface-to-air missile launchers and UAV storage sites were struck in western Iran," it added. After a new wave of mutual strikes, both countries activated their missile defence systems overnight into Tuesday, with Israel's army urging residents to seek shelter from incoming Iranian missiles several times during the night. 09:00 US President Donald Trump denied reports that he had rushed back to Washington from the G7 summit in Canada to work on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, saying his early departure 'has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that,' without elaborating. "Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron, of France, mistakenly said that I left the G7 Summit, in Canada, to go back to D.C. to work on a 'cease fire' between Israel and Iran," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. "Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that. Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong. Stay Tuned!" Macron had suggested that the United States was ready to make a diplomatic overture to Iran. "There was an offer made for a meeting and an exchange," Macron told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
Daily News Egypt
2 hours ago
- Daily News Egypt
Trump, Iran-Israel Confrontation: Strategic Analysis of Power Politics, Distraction Wars, and Regional Scenarios
The Middle East today stands at the edge of an unprecedented strategic rupture, with tensions between Iran and Israel intensifying from covert proxy confrontations to increasingly overt clashes. The Iranian strike on Israeli territory in April 2024—retaliation for the targeting of its consulate in Damascus—marked a critical turning point, shattering longstanding rules of engagement and compelling both regional and global actors to reassess their strategic calculus. Against this volatile backdrop, the United States, under the renewed leadership of Donald Trump following his return to the White House in January 2025, has reasserted itself as a central player—one focused not only on safeguarding Israeli security but on recalibrating the region's geopolitical equilibrium through a realist, interest-based approach that sidelines normative considerations in favour of hard power calculations. Trump's current strategy draws heavily on the legacy of his first term, during which he relocated the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and launched the Abraham Accords. Yet beneath this continuity lie growing tensions. Recent investigations by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal (June 2025) point to increasing friction between Trump and Netanyahu over the handling of the Iranian dossier and the Gaza conflict. In a markedly pragmatic shift, Trump announced on 13 June 2025 his intent to pursue a new nuclear deal with Iran, asserting that 'Iran could become a valuable economic partner if it relinquishes its nuclear ambitions.' This statement reflects a transactional, calculated realism aimed at achieving regional stability while avoiding the pitfalls of military entanglement—consistent with the renewed doctrine of America First. However, this orientation is anchored in three uncompromising imperatives: containing Iranian influence by strengthening Gulf alliances, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; maintaining Israel's qualitative military edge; and advancing Arab-Israeli normalisation agreements to isolate Tehran regionally. In this context, The Wall Street Journal reports ongoing negotiations between Washington and Riyadh over a prospective mutual defence pact that would offer Saudi Arabia security guarantees in exchange for formal recognition of Israel. While this would mark a major strategic victory for Trump, it simultaneously raises Israeli concerns about the potential dilution of its strategic centrality—especially if rapprochement occurs between the United States and Tehran or its proxies, such as the Houthis in Yemen. Trump's dual containment strategy, therefore, becomes a precarious balancing act—juggling competing alliances where each move risks estranging a key partner. This external calculus intersects with significant domestic tensions in the United States. Trump's polarising policies—from unwavering support for Israel to the reimposition of sweeping sanctions on Iran—have reignited protest movements across major American cities. As The New York Times reported on 11 June 2025, mass demonstrations in New York, Washington, and other urban centres have demanded an immediate suspension of military aid to Israel, decrying American complicity in fuelling Middle Eastern conflicts. These protests, uniting anti-war groups, human rights advocates, and the ascendant progressive wing of the Democratic Party, pose growing domestic political risks for Trump—further complicating his regional ambitions and forcing him to navigate an increasingly divided American public sphere. Simultaneously, the Iranian regime faces intensifying internal strain. The economic crisis caused by successive waves of Western sanctions has sparked widespread protests since 2022, steadily eroding the regime's legitimacy and limiting its capacity for military escalation. According to Al-Bayan (10 June 2025), Tehran is deeply concerned about the potential return of a 'maximum pressure' campaign under Trump, which could force it to enter nuclear negotiations under terms largely dictated by Washington and Tel Aviv. Yet the Iranian leadership remains reluctant to concede, fearing the alienation of its ideological base and the erosion of its long-standing narrative of resistance. It thus attempts a precarious balancing act—maintaining its defiant rhetoric while cautiously probing diplomatic openings to avert total economic collapse. Israel, too, faces a landscape marked by internal turbulence. The Netanyahu government continues to face widespread protests over controversial judicial reforms and its perceived failure to ensure lasting security in Gaza and along its northern border with Lebanon. Military analyst Amos Harel, writing in Haaretz (12 June 2025), observes that these protests have evolved into a deeper crisis of legitimacy for Netanyahu's leadership, eroding Israel's credibility among its allies and pressuring the Prime Minister to achieve quick military or political wins to stabilise his embattled right-wing coalition. In this context, escalation—whether against Iran, Hezbollah, or Gaza—serves as a convenient political tool, offering both a distraction from domestic discontent and a chance to reaffirm his authority. Within this broader strategic theatre, recent reports suggest Israeli military operations may be linked to long-term plans for Gaza, most notably the controversial 'Gaza Riviera' project. The Guardian (8 June 2025) details the proposal, which aims to transform Gaza into a demilitarised, Israeli-controlled zone, involving the displacement of large segments of the Palestinian population to neighbouring countries such as Egypt and Jordan under the guise of 'post-conflict reconstruction.' The plan, reportedly enjoying quiet support from elements of Israel's far-right establishment, frames the escalation with Iran and its allies as a classic War of Distraction—designed to divert global attention from a profound demographic and geopolitical reengineering of Gaza's future. From this dense web of overlapping crises, several potential scenarios emerge. The first envisions a tentative de-escalation, facilitated by a provisional nuclear accord between Washington and Tehran, alongside a temporary ceasefire mediated by regional actors like Oman or Qatar. While such an outcome might briefly stabilise the region, it would likely leave core tensions unresolved, sowing the seeds for future conflict—especially if Israel deems the concessions to Iran inadequate. A second, more dangerous scenario anticipates a direct military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which could swiftly entangle Iranian and American forces—whether through deliberate escalation or strategic miscalculation. Although devastating, such a conflict could paradoxically prompt renewed diplomacy, as international stakeholders intervene to contain a wider regional war. A third, more insidious scenario involves the continuation of low-intensity but sustained proxy conflicts across multiple theatres—Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza—allowing Israel to gradually advance its territorial and strategic objectives under the cover of distraction. In this scenario, the Gaza Riviera project would progress quietly while global focus remains fixed on the more visible Iran-Israel confrontation, enabling irreversible changes on the ground. Each scenario underscores not only the volatility of regional politics but also the increasingly cynical use of conflict as a tool for regime survival and strategic recalibration. The region thus approaches a critical juncture—not merely one of temporary escalation but of structural transformation. Under Trump, the United States seeks to construct a delicate equilibrium: upholding Israeli deterrence, managing Iranian ambitions, and reinforcing Gulf partnerships, all while contending with intensifying domestic dissent. The most likely trajectory points toward a temporary nuclear deal with Iran, tied to limits on its proxies, coupled with continued strategic backing for Israel—calibrated to avoid full-scale war. Concurrently, Tehran will try to preserve its revolutionary posture without courting ruinous conflict, while Netanyahu leverages escalation to distract from internal crises and pursue controversial territorial ambitions in Gaza. The essential question remains whether Trump can sustain this fragile, combustible balance before the region spirals into chaos. As always in Middle Eastern affairs, the answer will depend on whether key actors can step back from the brink—before it is too late. Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and writer
