The Pac-12's drive to eight, Tulane angst and the G5's CFP future: Group of 5 mailbag

New York Times

14-02-2025

Welcome to the college football offseason.
A lot has changed in the Group of 5 since our last mailbag, from more conference realignment to roster movement, so let's get into it.
Where does the Pac get its 8th member? Did UNLV permanently close the door or are they still playing chess?
Nick C.
The question around the Pac-12's rebuilding process begins with this: Do you do the TV deal first and then expand, or finalize expansion and then do the TV deal? Or can you do them simultaneously? AAC targets like Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA turned down the Pac-12 in the fall because it didn't have tangible TV numbers. In order to go back to them, the league would need those details. The Pac-12 needs not only a TV deal for 2026 and beyond but also a 2025 broadcast home for Oregon State and Washington State. It's possible the TV deals could be announced together, or they might not. All the major broadcasters are at least in the conversation for the larger package, including TNT Sports, as someone familiar with the process told me. Getting to nine football-playing members (which would require adding two more schools) could be the ideal number of teams for football scheduling purposes.
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But what about UNLV, which Pac-12 expert John Canzano floated recently? The Athletic obtained the Mountain West Grant of Rights, which binds those schools (including UNLV and Nevada) into 2032. The 'term' for the agreement doesn't begin until July 1, 2026, but the 'effective date' was the date it was signed last year. Schools can only get out of the deal if they leave for a Power 4 conference.
Which is why Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez released a statement two weeks ago in response to the UNLV rumor, saying in part, '(T)he seven member institutions who are the foundation of the Mountain West have fully committed to the future of the Conference. Each member has cemented that commitment by executing a Grant of Rights Agreement, effective July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2032. … The Mountain West is confident in its legal position and strategic plan to address the ongoing litigation with both the Pac-12 and several member institutions who have publicly expressed their intent to depart the Conference.'
That last point is key. The Mountain West is currently being sued by the Pac-12 and some of the outgoing Mountain West schools over the exit and poaching fees, which total almost $150 million. Of that money, the first $61 million will be split among current Mountain West members, of which 24.5 percent each will go to UNLV and Air Force, as laid out in the contract. In total, $100 million is already assigned in the grant of rights for the seven MW schools who stayed. The conference will also use its 'best efforts' to keep TV payouts at $3.5 million for those same schools.
The contract also states that any provision that becomes invalid or unenforceable won't invalidate the agreement. Does that mean UNLV can't get out of the deal if the Mountain West doesn't recoup all of that money? I think so? But I'm not a lawyer, and rules don't seem to matter anymore. The Mountain West has also promised to move its headquarters to Las Vegas and its basketball tournaments to UNLV. There is a lot of long-term commitment here.
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Assuming the Pac-12 can't get any other Mountain West schools, I imagine it'll make another swing at the AAC, especially Memphis and Tulane. After that, maybe Texas State. It's the same pool that was discussed in the fall. If the league runs out of options, I wouldn't rule out Sacramento State as a singular add so as to not dilute the rest of the pie too much. I plan to dig into this more in the coming weeks.
Is it time for the North Dakota State Bison to move up to the big league and find a Group of 5 conference fit?
Lance M.
This is just my opinion: I don't think they should and I don't think they will. I went deep on this topic a few years ago after James Madison moved up to the Football Bowl Subdivision. There is no real geographic fit among the FBS conferences. The AAC was the preference of then-head coach Matt Entz at the time, but college sports have changed even since then, to the point where I don't think any positives would outweigh the negatives.
The FBS haves are getting further and further from the have-nots, and the ability for schools to share revenue with players directly once the settlement of the House v. NCAA lawsuit is approved will only grow that gap. North Dakota State can't compete with Power 4 schools on the financial front. Is it worth joining a G5 league with no ties or rivalries solely for the hope of making the College Football Playoff? Moving to the FBS is expensive across the board for an athletic department.
NDSU athletic director Matt Larsen said recently that the Bison are not expected to opt into the House settlement, and I understand his argument. The roster cap of 105 players would result in around 65 spots getting cut, Larsen said. Those are spots filled by players that pay needed tuition to the school. Schools paying players directly means schools needing to find more money to spend. (Montana and Montana State have said they will opt in.)
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It made sense for James Madison to move up because the Sun Belt offered old and new regional rivalries and travel wasn't impacted. New FBS arrival Missouri State fits geographically in Conference USA, though Delaware does not.
While there has been concern in recent years over fatigue and ticket sales amid North Dakota State's run of 10 national titles in 14 years, I don't think there's really an FBS fix for that anymore as the divide within the FBS grows. Outside of the very top of college football, a lot of people want to move back to a regional model in which they play against they peers. NDSU already has that.
The Pac-12 is back, sort of. Which G6 conference will get the auto-bid next year, PAC, MWC or AAC?
Jesse K.
The league will still be a Pac-2 next year and not eligible for one of the automatic bids given to the highest ranked conference champions. Its realignment additions arrive in 2026. But looking at 2025 and the Group of 5, I can tell you now my early pick for the auto-bid is Boise State again, so that'll be the Mountain West. Yes, the Broncos have to replace the legendary Ashton Jeanty at running back and top receiver Cam Camper, but they bring almost everyone else back.
Remember the name Sire Gaines. As a true freshman running back, Gaines had 110 yards in the opener against Georgia Southern and averaged 7.8 yards on 20 carries before suffering a season-ending injury in the season's third game. As long as that injury doesn't linger, I think Gaines is going to be the next stud Boise State running back.
Do you think the Group of 5 will be included in the playoff after next year?
Mark N.
Yes. Regardless of how big the field is or how many auto-bids the Power 4 get, the TV agreement all the leagues and Notre Dame signed last year contains protections for the top five conference champions once again, as The Athletic has reported. Though the Group of 5 may become a 'Group of 6' once the Pac-X finishes expanding.
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Where is a program like Tulane headed? They have been on an upswing for a number of years, but now look like they are going to be a farm team for Power 4 schools. It seems difficult to build a program like this and maintain any form of momentum. The current NIL landscape seems to work against them. What's the future for a program like this?
Jon G.
Tulane is still in a better spot than most. It's simply going to be really hard for Group of 5 teams to keep their best players. The ones that will thrive are the ones that find the replacements. Tulane, with one of the best NIL operations in the G5, is doing that.
Losing quarterback Darian Mensah to Duke and running back Makhi Hughes to Oregon is obviously hard to swallow, but holding on to head coach Jon Sumrall was huge, and the Green Wave added more than two dozen incoming transfers, including Ball State quarterback Kadin Semonza, the MAC freshman of the year, and two other quarterbacks. (Yes, TJ Finley is still playing college football, and he's with the Green Wave now.)
Tulane lost coach Willie Fritz and hired away the best coach in the Sun Belt. It lost Mensah and grabbed one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC. The Green Wave are still able to pull from below them, and showing their commitment to investing in ways to keep winning.
What are the coolest stadiums in the Group of 5?
Gary M.
I've certainly not been to every one, but here are some of my favorites I've visited or where I want to get to.
Kidd Brewer Stadium (Appalachian State) — I'd put this view up with any in the country. Up in the mountains, one end zone literally goes into a forest. I visited in 2019, and it was App State's only loss that season, so I'm sorry for that.
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and Michie Stadium (Navy and Army) — Both service academies' home sites are unlike anything else in the NFL or major college football. I've been to Navy, but not for a game.
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Albertsons Stadium (Boise State) — The blue turf is iconic, and Boise State fans fill it every week.
Sun Bowl (UTEP) — I've never covered a game here, but the fact that a major bowl game is still played here tells you how special it is. Another beautiful view.
Glass Bowl (Toledo) — I first visited this stadium in high school. It's a good place to watch a game, and what other stadium has an actual rocket angled to land at the rival's stadium?
Reminder that Toledo's stadium features an actual rocket that is angled to land at Bowling Green's 50-yard line.
Your rivalry could never. pic.twitter.com/WuG4KURHX4
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) November 15, 2023