Threat of India and Pakistan nuclear war is real - but there's a silver lining
The threat of atomic war between bitter enemies Pakistan and India is real - but that alarm will likely prevent a major conflict breaking out between the two, declares a top UK military nuke expert
One of the UK's leading military experts in atomic warfare has declared India and Pakistan's nuclear weapons will likely 'prevent a major war.' But more terror attacks or unconventional warfare backed or planned by Pakistan would herald an increase in conventional strikes by militarily superior India, he warned.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon was talking as the world awaits Islamabad's threatened revenge move following India's strikes on Pakistan-controlled part of Kashmir and the mainland. India has claimed it was striking Pakistan-backed terror camps in retaliation for an April 22 terror attack that killed 26 tourists, mostly Indians, in its part of Kashmir.
And Pakistan claimed it has killed 'dozens' of Indian soldiers and that overnight it shot down 12 Indian drones. Delhi's military claimed in reply that it thwarted missile and drone attacks by Pakistan on Wednesday through to Thursday morning on 15 sites across the north and west.
And Col De Bretton-Gordon added that although neither India or Pakistan owns so-called traditional chemical weapons made by countries such as Russia and in the past Syria, there is always that danger.
The former Commanding Officer of the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Regiment told the Mirror: 'In an odd way this means a future escalation is less likely.
"The thing that both countries having nuclear weapons does is it creates balance, equilibrium and parity. Look at what's happening in Ukraine where there is no nuclear parity and Putin is able to make threats about nuclear weapons and gets away with it.
'When you have nuclear parity this almost cancels the two sides out and avoids a conventional escalation.'
One problem may lie in Pakistan's complex relationships with terror groups, he added, saying: 'But at the same time it is true to say that Pakistan has had major problems with al-Qaeda, Islamic State and the Taliban. Pakistan must have some responsibility towards this.
"Pakistan will retaliate in some way to India's recent strikes but unlikely with a full scale invasion as there is no conventional parity. India is a much more powerful military entity and Pakistan knows that.
'That said the links between the Pakistan Inter Service Intelligence agency, the ISI and these organisations in the past is pretty unpleasant and that has to be watched. This has been a complex relationship.
"We could see more terror attacks and that could be met with a much more conventional response from India.'
Both India and Pakistan are said not to own chemical and biological weapons - but de Bretton-Gordon warns that chemical weapons can easily be used by both. He said: 'Russia is daily using these kinds of weapons and they are very easily made, even though the thing being used might not be what people think of as chemical weapons.
'Putin's troops are using riot control agents, which technically are chemical weapons, on an industrial scale and they are very effective. I was with the Kurdish Peshmerga in Syria when ISIS were firing mortars full of Chlorine and you then see a brave fighter used to running into a hail of bullets looking terrified.
"This is a very scary weapon and it can easily kill you. This stuff is called Chloropicrin and it can be deadly. Whilst India and Pakistan may not have what we usually think of as chemical weapons I am quite sure both do have these riot control agents.
'To summarise, if the situation worsens we may see an escalation of some kind , even perhaps more terror attacks - but this would not be in Pakistan's interest. Ultimately India is in a position of conventional military overmatch with Pakistan and a war could lead to the devastation of Pakistan.'
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