AI to predict future illnesses using NHS patient data

Telegraph

07-05-2025

Artificial intelligence will be used to predict future illnesses by analysing all NHS patients' data in a world-first study.
The pilot will see a generative AI model, called Foresight, trained to predict disease by using the anonymised health data of 57 million people in England.
The model will learn about the patterns that have led to ill-health and hospitalisation among people in England with the aim of being able to spot trends and predict people at risk of health issues such as heart attacks.
It will work in a similar way to other AI models such as ChatGPT, which predicts the next word in a sentence based on the data it has accumulated from across the internet.
By better understanding the predictors of disease, heart attacks and the causes of hospitalisations, it will be easier to intervene in an individual's life and take measures to prevent such an event from happening.
The research is being led by experts from University College London (UCL) and King's College London (King's) and has the power to 'save lives', they said.
Dr Chris Tomlinson, lead researcher from UCL, said the AI model could play a key role in the Government's mission to shift to preventing illness rather than just treating it.
Predicting diseases before they happen
'AI models are only as good as the data on which they're trained. So if we want a model that can benefit all patients, with all conditions, then the AI needs to have seen that during training,' he said.
'Foresight is a really exciting step towards being able to predict disease and complications before they happen, giving us a window to intervene and enabling a shift towards more preventative health care at scale,' he added.
It could predict the risk of someone being hospitalised and 'use Foresight to understand the drivers for that deterioration, and potentially suggest personalising opportunities for intervention so that might include, for example, optimising medications to improve blood pressure control and reduce the risk of, say, stroke', Dr Tomlinson said.
Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, said the Government was ' harnessing trailblazing AI to radically transform our NHS – while also protecting patient data with strict security procedures'.
'I'm determined that we use this kind of groundbreaking technology to cut down on unnecessary hospital trips, speed up diagnosis times, and free up staff time,' he added. 'AI will be central as we bring our analogue NHS into the digital age to deliver faster and smarter care across the country.'
Use of NHS data
Foresight is being trained using NHS data, including hospital and A&E admissions and vaccination rates.
It has previously had access to a limited number of datasets for Covid-19 research from between November 2018 to the end of 2023, but is now being rolled out at 'unprecedented scale'.
It comes after an investigation found last month that Chinese researchers were to be granted access to half a million GP records through UK Biobank, a research hub, despite MI5 fears that Beijing's regime could acquire sensitive information.
However, those involved in the Foresight study are adamant the research follows strict security protocols with personal information stripped away. They said it was operating within the NHS England Secure Data Environment, which is a research analysis platform where the 'de-identified' data from 57 million people exists.
Peter Kyle, the Science Secretary, said 'an unrelenting focus on privacy and security means people can rest assured that their data is in safe hands'.
The new pilot comes after a study, published in the Lancet Digital Health in March 2024, found Foresight was able to predict the type of health conditions a patient is likely to develop in the future.
Professor Richard Dobson, deputy director of the NIHR Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre and another lead researcher at KCL and UCL, said: 'This pilot is building on previous research that demonstrated Foresight's ability to predict health trajectories from data from two NHS trusts.
'To be able to use it in a national setting is very exciting as it will potentially demonstrate more powerful predictions that can inform services nationally and locally.'