US Strikes May Have Only Delayed Iran's Nuclear Program: Report
A preliminary US intelligence assessment has revealed that recent strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may have only delayed Tehran's program by months, three sources familiar with the matter shared this information with Reuters. The Defense Intelligence Agency prepared the initial report, which is one of 18 US intelligence agencies.
The assessment indicates that Iran could restart its nuclear program within months. One source estimated that the earliest restart could occur in one to two months. This classified assessment contradicts statements from President Donald Trump and high-ranking US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They claimed the strikes effectively eliminated Iran's nuclear capabilities.
On Tuesday, Trump's administration informed the UN Security Council that the strikes had 'degraded' Iran's nuclear program. This statement fell short of Trump's earlier claim that the facilities had been 'obliterated.' When asked for comment, the White House referred to spokesperson Karoline Leavitt's statement to CNN. She called the assessment 'flat-out wrong.'
'Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,' Leavitt stated. Damage Assessment Remains Uncertain
A US official who reviewed the assessment noted that it included several caveats and 'ifs.' This official also mentioned that a more refined report is expected in the coming days. Analysts suggest that if the assessment relied on satellite imagery, it might not reveal the full extent of damage to the deeply buried Fordo uranium enrichment facility.
Trump has argued that the attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. However, Iran denies seeking such a weapon, asserting that its nuclear program serves peaceful purposes.
Evaluating the damage at the Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz nuclear sites presents significant challenges. The Defense Intelligence Agency is not the only agency tasked with this evaluation. One source indicated that the assessment faced disagreement and was not universally accepted.
A US official, speaking anonymously, stated that the true extent of the damage remains unknown. Nevertheless, the initial assessment suggests that the strikes may not have been as successful as the Trump administration claims. Infrastructure Damage Reported
The report indicates the US attack caved in facility entrances and damaged infrastructure. However, one source noted that the strike did not collapse underground buildings. Restarting operations will depend on how long it takes Iran to dig out and repair power and water supply facilities.
The Washington Post reported some centrifuges for enriching uranium remained intact after the strikes. The Pentagon disputed claims that the damage was insignificant but did not deny the existence of the DIA assessment.
'Based on everything we have seen — and I've seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons,' Hegseth stated to Reuters. He emphasized that the bombs hit their targets perfectly, resulting in devastating impacts buried under rubble.
However, one source indicated that Iran's enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated. David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, expressed that the US attack effectively destroyed Iran's uranium enrichment program for now. However, he warned that it failed to eliminate the longer-term threat.
'Iran retains an ability to break out and produce weapon-grade uranium,' Albright stated in a post on X. He highlighted that Iran's stock of near-weapons-grade highly enriched uranium, sufficient for about nine warheads, remains unaccounted for. Ongoing Debate and Canceled Briefings
Initial military assessments can evolve as more information becomes available. It is common for opinions to vary across different US intelligence agencies. Democrats have previously stated that Trump's claims about the strikes eliminating or significantly hindering Iran's nuclear program lack supporting evidence.
'There's zero evidence that I've seen that the nuclear program was completely and totally obliterated as Donald Trump has claimed,' House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Monday.
Classified briefings for members of the House of Representatives and Senate regarding this matter were canceled on Tuesday.
Short link :
Post Views: 4
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Al Arabiya
34 minutes ago
- Al Arabiya
Former Republican US Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts seeks to succeed Shaheen in New Hampshire
Scott Brown, a Republican who once represented Massachusetts in the US Senate, announced his second bid Wednesday for the New Hampshire Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen next year. Brown, 65, was born at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard and moved to Massachusetts as a toddler. After several terms in the state legislature, he won a special election in 2010 for the US Senate seat that had been held for decades by Edward Kennedy. He lost to Democrat Elizabeth Warren in 2012. He then moved to New Hampshire, where he unsuccessfully challenged Shaheen for the Senate in 2014. Shaheen, now serving her third term in the Senate, announced in March she would not seek reelection in 2026. Brown also served as US ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa during President Donald Trump's first administration and briefly as dean of New England Law in Boston. He first announced he was running to WMUR-TV. 'We've been blessed by two great governors – Chris Sununu and Kelly Ayotte,' Brown said in a campaign announcement video of the former and current Republican leaders. 'But in Washington, we haven't been represented by the right people.' New Hampshire has an all-Democrat congressional delegation, with four-term Congressman Chris Pappas, 44, announcing his candidacy for the Senate seat in April. Brown said in his video that Pappas has stood with Joe Biden as he 'opened the border, drove up the cost of everything and made life just simply unaffordable.' Pappas responded in a statement following Brown's announcement. He said Brown 'stands with corporate special interests, supports efforts to strip away health care coverage from tens of thousands of Granite Staters and backs President Trump's reckless tariffs that New Hampshire small businesses are speaking out against every single day.' Brown announced his candidacy after Sununu declined to run. The popular governor decided not to seek a fifth two-year term last year.
Arab News
2 hours ago
- Arab News
Iran and the craft of politics
For decades, Iran's patience has not been merely a political tactic, it has been a way of life in how the country navigates crises, negotiations and power projection. But the recent war with Israel, which lasted for 12 days of unprecedented military escalation — including a US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and Tehran's retaliatory attack on the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar, followed by President Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire — tested this model in an unprecedented manner. The question now is: Is this model still valid or is it time for a fundamental shift in Tehran's political doctrine? Since the revolution in 1979, Iran has been known for a foreign policy approach that combines ideological pragmatism with long-term patience in managing complex challenges, especially under sanctions and international isolation. Many analysts have labeled this approach as 'strategic patience,' a term that describes not just the regime's behavior but also reflects deeper traits of the Iranian national character, rooted in its cultural and historical legacy. The metaphor of Persian carpet weaving is often invoked to describe this mindset: a slow, meticulous process that unfolds not under pressure but in accordance with an internal rhythm of precision and long-range vision. Just as crafting a Persian carpet can take years of detailed work, so too does Iran build its foreign policy, step by step, thread by thread, through cumulative, deliberate moves rather than sudden leaps. But the recent Iranian-Israeli war has changed many equations. For the first time, the confrontation moved beyond proxy battles to a direct exchange, with strikes hitting targets inside both Iran and Israel. The turning point came when Trump ordered a precise strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, reasserting America's role as a military actor, not just a distant negotiator. Iran's response was swift yet calculated: targeting the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, home to US forces, in what it described as a 'measured warning' rather than a declaration of war. This rapid and volatile escalation brings Iran's strategic patience face to face with a new geopolitical era Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy This rapid and volatile escalation brings Iran's strategic patience face to face with a new geopolitical era — an era of precision missiles, drone warfare, real-time diplomacy and a shifting regional map that does not wait for anyone to finish weaving their political carpet. And yet, Iran's response did not appear impulsive. While the Al-Udeid strike was bold and direct, it came 72 hours after the US attack, following internal deliberations and calibrated messaging. Tehran signaled clearly that it was retaliating but not escalating. It remains within its familiar logic: punish without provoking all-out war, respond without crossing the point of no return. This dynamic echoes an old anecdote from the Iran-Iraq War. In 1980, an Arab politician reportedly warned his Iraqi counterpart during the early days of the war: 'Don't celebrate your initial victories too soon. A war with Iran is never short. This is a people who spend 10 years weaving one carpet, they will endure even longer in war.' It seems that Iran has not abandoned that long breath, even in the age of fast-moving conflict. The real transformation, however, lies not in Iran's military behavior but in how patience is being redefined within its strategic doctrine. Previously, patience served as a tool for negotiation and building leverage. Today, it has increasingly become a way of absorbing global chaos and delivering timed responses — carefully selected and publicly claimed, but tightly controlled. Looking back at Iran's behavior over recent years, one sees the same disciplined pattern: calculated delays in the nuclear talks, indirect power-building through regional proxies, and strategic ambiguity when it comes to responsibility for attacks. But the latest war laid these methods bare, putting them under a global spotlight at a moment when options are narrowing, margins are shrinking and pressure is mounting. So, the key question is no longer whether Iran has strategic patience but whether today's world still allows it to be an effective tool. Waiting is no longer a virtue in itself, but a component in a more agile, more assertive strategy Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy It could be argued that Iran is not abandoning patience but rather redefining it. Patience no longer means abstaining from action, it means responding with precision, without falling into the trap of prolonged attrition. Waiting is no longer a virtue in itself, but a component in a more agile, more assertive strategy. Today, with Trump announcing a ceasefire, Iran emerges as a player that lost nothing essential: it responded militarily, maintained its deterrent image and benefited from a Qatari-mediated de-escalation that likely came with new diplomatic channels or concessions. In this, we see a new face of Iran's patience: assertive patience. Patience that enables a response, not only restraint. Patience that preserves control while wielding credible threats. But this approach is not without its limits. Domestic pressure is growing, the regional landscape is fluid and technological escalation leaves little room for slow maneuvers. That is why the question is no longer: Does Iran possess strategic patience? Rather, it is: Is the regional and global tempo still compatible with this model of slow, deliberate endurance? Perhaps the answer lies in adapting rather than abandoning. Iran may not be able to wait 10 years for every policy outcome, as the old carpet metaphor suggests. The craft remains, but the pace must evolve. Like the modern Persian carpet, sometimes produced in six months with new tools and techniques, Iranian strategy may need to integrate faster, more responsive tactics without losing its long-range character. Between the roar of missiles and the whisper of weaving needles, Iran remains a state that excels at survival. But the greater test now is not how long it can wait, but whether it can change while waiting.
Asharq Al-Awsat
3 hours ago
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Trump Insists Iran Nuclear Program Set Back 'Decades'
President Donald Trump insisted Wednesday that US strikes led to the "total obliteration" of Iran's nuclear capabilities and set the country's atomic program back "decades", while Israel said it was still early to fully assess the damage. Over a 12-day conflict, Israel pounded Iranian nuclear and military sites while Iran launched waves of missiles at its foe during their deadliest-ever confrontation. The United States joined the fray in support of its ally, hitting two nuclear facilities with massive bunker-buster bombs over the weekend, while a guided missile from a submarine struck a third. But leaked US intelligence cast doubt on the damage caused by American strikes, saying they had set back Tehran's nuclear program by just a few months. "They're not going to be building bombs for a long time," said Trump, adding that the strikes had set back the program by "decades" and that the Iran-Israel ceasefire that he declared was going "very well". Earlier, Israel's military said it was "still early" to assess the damage caused to Iran's nuclear program, AFP reported. "I believe we have delivered a significant hit to the nuclear program, and I can also say that we have delayed it by several years," said Israeli military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin. The head of Israel's military, Eyal Zamir, on Tuesday said Israel and the United States had set back Iran's nuclear program "by years". But US media on Tuesday cited people familiar with the Defense Intelligence Agency intelligence report as saying the American strikes did not fully eliminate Iran's centrifuges or enriched uranium stockpiles. The strikes sealed off entrances to some facilities without destroying underground buildings, according to the report. Israel had said its bombing campaign, which began on June 13, was aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran has consistently denied. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an address to the nation after the ceasefire, announced that "we have thwarted Iran's nuclear project". "And if anyone in Iran tries to rebuild it, we will act with the same determination, with the same intensity, to foil any attempt," he said.
