2025 NBA Finals betting: Game 1 line moves towards Thunder despite more action on Pacers
Bettors like the Indiana Pacers to cover the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals but the line has moved towards the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites to win Thursday night's game (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) after opening as 8.5-point favorites. The line shifted a point in the Thunder's favor despite Indiana getting 66% of bets and 63% of the money against the spread at BetMGM.
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Bettors are clearly counting on a 20-year trend to not go the Thunder's way.
Oklahoma City is -700 to win the series and is one of the biggest Finals favorites ever. Since 1996, only six teams have had lower odds to win the Finals. The biggest Finals favorite in that span was the 2001 Lakers, who were -2000 to take down the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers won Game 1 by six before the Lakers won four straight to clinch the series.
The over/under for Game 1 hasn't changed and still sits at 230.5 points. Just over half of the bets and 60% of the money are on the over given how strong each team's offense is and the quick tempo the game is likely to be played at. In addition to having the best defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season, the Thunder had the third-best offensive rating and averaged over 120 points per game. The Pacers had the ninth-best offensive rating in the league and scored just over 117 points per game.
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The most-bet props ahead of Game 1 are unders for Pacers guard Tyrese Hailburton. The top ticket is under 9.5 assists for Haliburton (-145) and the second-most bet prop is under 27.5 points (-120). In two games vs. Oklahoma City this season — both Thunder wins — Haliburton had a combined 22 points and 11 assists.
Bettors are also counting on a six-game series going in the Thunder's favor. The most-bet series prop so far is the Thunder in six games at +425, though the exact outcome betting trends differ. The bettors who don't think the series will go six games are liking the idea of the Thunder winning the first two games, losing the third game and then winning two more games to close the series out in five games at +625.
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Yahoo
10 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Pacers vs. Thunder: Have the Pacers found a blueprint for success against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the NBA Finals?
OKLAHOMA CITY — Rick Carlisle wants to make one thing abundantly clear: The Pacers are not looking for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go off. 'We are not looking to get Shai going,' he said Saturday on the eve of Game 2 of the 2025 NBA Finals. 'That doesn't make any sense.' Advertisement That stands to reason! If the other team's best player has the ball a ton, and is doing a lot with it, it's reasonable to assume that it would be a bad thing for your defense. Here's the thing, though: • In the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs against the Pacers, Donovan Mitchell wound up averaging 34.2 points on 25 field goal attempts per game, finishing a mammoth 41% of the Cavaliers' offensive possessions with a shot attempt, foul drawn or turnover — a usage rate more than 10% higher than it had been against Miami the previous round. (Injuries to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter played a role there.) In a possibly related story: Only one other Cleveland player (Mobley) averaged more than 15 points per game in the series, and a Cavaliers team whose league-leading offense assaulted the record books all season long scored just 109.6 points per 100 possessions in Mitchell's minutes in the conference semifinals — same as the 25th-ranked Toronto Raptors managed during the regular season. The Pacers drummed Cleveland out of the playoffs in five games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 38 points in Game 1, but it wasn't enough. (Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images) (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters) • In the Eastern Conference finals against the Pacers, Jalen Brunson went off, averaging 30.7 points on 20.8 field goal attempts per game, finishing 34.4% of the Knicks' offensive possessions with a shot attempt, foul drawn or turnover — a usage rate nearly 5% higher than it had been against Boston the previous round. Advertisement In a possibly related story: Only one other New York player (Karl-Anthony Towns) averaged more than 18 points per game in the series, and a Knicks team that ranked fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season scored just 114.3 points-per-100 in Brunson's minutes in the conference finals — a league-average scoring rate. The Pacers drummed New York out of the playoffs in six. • And hey, sure, given your druthers, you'd certainly prefer that the NBA's reigning Most Valuable Player not score 30-plus points on you — as Gilgeous-Alexander did on Thursday, pouring in 38 to lead the Thunder in Game 1. If he's going to, though, you'd probably like those points to come as inefficiently as possible. Say, on 30 shot attempts — tied for the third-highest total of his career. And probably while soaking up a ton of possessions. Like, for example, a 37.1% usage rate — the third-highest mark of his playoff career. And maybe even while dominating the ball to a greater degree than usual. For instance, a total time of possession of 8.8 minutes — up more than two minutes from the regular season, and more than one minute from the first three rounds. In a possibly related story: Only one other Oklahoma City player (Jalen Williams) scored more than 15 points in Game 1, and a Thunder offense that scored a scorching 122.4 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor during the regular season, and 116.2 points-per-100 with SGA at the controls through the first three rounds of the postseason, scored just 104.7 points-per-100 in the MVP's minutes in Game 1 — a sub-Wizardian rate of offensive inefficiency that would've ranked dead last in the NBA during the regular season. Advertisement Oh, and the Pacers won the game. How the Pacers played SGA in Game 1 OK, so maybe 'give the best guy on the team as many shots as he can handle' isn't exactly Indiana's double-secret defensive game plan. As blueprints for success go, though, 'force that player to make a ton of tough 2-point shots, keep anyone else from getting off, and when possible, funnel touches and shots to less-threatening options' — like, for example, by having rangy power forwards Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin cross-match against Thunder guard Luguentz Dort, sag way off of him to play more aggressive help defense, and then live with him taking dare-you 3s when the ball finds him … well, that wouldn't be the worst one ever constructed against a team that relies so heavily on its elite top option. Advertisement The Pacers threw a ton at Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 1. The MVP saw a heavy dose of Canadian national teammate Andrew Nembhard as his primary defender, with Siakam, Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin also pulling shifts. Indiana was also aggressive in showing help in the gaps on Gilgeous-Alexander's isolations and drives, and 'next-ing' his pick-and-rolls — having the defender who's nearest to the play switch over onto SGA as he drives, with his initial defender switching back onto SGA's now-uncovered teammate — to try to corral him in the two-man game. 'He's the MVP of our league, so you're not going to shut a guy like that down,' Pacers guard T.J. McConnell said Saturday. 'He's a special talent. It's just about making things as difficult as possible and trying to tire him out and wear him down. Credit to everyone that guarded him. They played a part in trying to do that. Obviously, he had a phenomenal game, but it's a collective effort.' That effort extends to the defensive end of the floor: The Pacers went 7-for-12 in Game 1 on plays where Gilgeous-Alexander was the closest defender, according to NBA Advanced Stats. As they did to Brunson last round, Indiana at times looked to target Gilgeous-Alexander — putting him into action, leveraging size mismatches on switches, attacking him in isolation — to ensure that he wouldn't get the benefit of a breather when he didn't have the ball: 'I think that's what we're trying to do: just make him work on both ends,' McConnell said. 'I mean, he's a great player. And you know, when great players play a lot of minutes, it can kind of get into their legs. Obviously, I'm not sure we saw a lot of that — he had 38 points. But it's a process thing.' Advertisement Indiana will continue trusting that process, betting that the deposits they put in early will pay off with compound interest late. The Game 1 effort already paid some dividends, though, by influencing Gilgeous-Alexander to put the onus largely on himself. He passed out of just two of his 27 drives — emblematic of an outing that saw him call his own number more frequently than usual. 'I always try to be aggressive and I never, like, predetermine it,' Gilgeous-Alexander said Saturday. 'I always just let the game tell me what to do. So I guess last game, I felt more often than not I had a shot or a play that I could attack on more than in the past, and that's just the way it went.' Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 41 passes per game during the regular season and 46 per game through the first three rounds of the playoffs. In Game 1, though? Just 38. SGA wasn't alone in playing less frequently off the pass, though: After averaging 270.7 passes per game in the regular season, and 256.6 during the first three rounds, Oklahoma City threw a shockingly low 207 passes in Game 1, leading to a season-low 13 assists. Advertisement 'The same thing will happen in Game 2,' Gilgeous-Alexander said. 'I will read the defense, and I will play off my feeling and my instincts, and if it's calling for me to shoot or if it's calling me to pass, that's what I will decide to do.' SGA will need help in Game 2 The key for the Thunder? If the game's calling for Gilgeous-Alexander to pass — if, after film study, he recognizes that the crowd that Indiana's showing him means some of his teammates are wide open — then they've got to knock 'em down at a much better clip than they did in Game 1. Non-SGA Thunderers shot just 25-for-68 (36.8%) from the field — including a 5-for-19 mark off of Shai's passes — and 8-for-24 (33.3%) from 3-point land on Thursday. Strip out Dort's 5-for-9 outing from beyond the arc, and the rest of Oklahoma City's rotation went just 2-for-15 from deep — the kind of output that's not exactly going to dissuade the Pacers from making Gilgeous-Alexander's teammates prove they can knock down enough shots to make them pay for their defensive approach. That puts the spotlight squarely on Williams, who needed 19 shots to score 17 points in Game 1, and on Chet Holmgren, who spoke Saturday about needing to improve his finishing after going 2-for-8 in the paint in Game 1 against the length and physicality of Turner on the interior. Advertisement 'I think we had a good offensive process,' Williams said after Game 1. 'We got some good shots towards the end … I repped a lot of the shots that I shot tonight — over and over and over again, consistently, throughout my career, this year, the playoffs. All you can do is shoot them and not get scared to shoot them.' Maintaining that mentality isn't easy, especially when you know the opponent is betting that, if they throw everything they've got at stopping your teammate, you won't be able to make them pay for it. But Williams said Saturday that knowing he's Oklahoma City's failsafe Plan B isn't anything new for him, and doesn't come with additional pressure to score every time the ball swings his way. Sometimes, though, the circumstances will demand Williams and Holmgren finish those possessions with a bucket — pulling a contested 3, finishing over Turner or Siakam at the rim, or just playing through contact to get to the foul line. Heady stuff for a 23- and 24-year-old. '[Holmgren] and Dub, specifically, obviously, they have carved out huge roles on our team,' Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said. 'They are a huge reason why we're here. They are in an uncommon position for third-year players … and now that they are here, they have to continue to do what they have done all the way through the playoffs, which is go out there, fully compete, learn the lessons, and apply it forward.' Advertisement Williams, for his part, sounds ready to shake off Game 1 and do just that. 'Pressure is a privilege,' Williams said. 'I enjoy being counted on.' The Thunder are counting on him, Holmgren and everyone else to bounce back in a big way. The Pacers are counting on it, too. 'Look, everybody's pattern after a loss is to come more aggressively,' Carlisle said. 'So [Gilgeous-Alexander's] going to be more aggressive. Williams is going to be more aggressive. Chet is going to be more aggressive. Their whole team is going to be even more aggressive defensively. The challenge for us is to be able to match that.' Advertisement If the Pacers can't, they still walk out of Oklahoma City with a split. If they can, though — if they're able to replicate what worked in Game 1 and improve on what didn't — they could find themselves precisely where they've been in every series they've played in this postseason: up 2-0, in complete control, and in position to do something that very few people outside their locker room ever thought could be possible. 'We don't want Shai getting 38 points if we can avoid it,' Carlisle said. 'We don't want him living on the free-throw line. We don't want him getting easy 3s — we don't want him making that 3 at the end of the third quarter. That was a tough shot, but he banged that in. 'We have to make it hard on him.'
Indianapolis Star
27 minutes ago
- Indianapolis Star
One phone call brought Haliburton, Siakam together, turned the Pacers into a contender.
OKLAHOMA CITY – Outside of a handful of interactions in summer workouts, Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton didn't know Pascal Siakam very well, when he learned Indiana might trade for the Toronto All-Star a year ago January. Haliburton and Siakam had exchanged pleasantries at Rico Runs — the well-known UCLA-based summer pickup games organized by longtime NBA assistant Rico Hines — but otherwise the pair hadn't often crossed paths. Now, with his front office considering a move to pair him with Siakam, Indiana's emerging franchise face thought it would be a good idea for the two to connect. Stepping out of a dinner during the team's mid-January swing through Atlanta last season, Haliburton talked with Siakam for roughly an hour. That phone call provided the building blocks of a relationship that's anchored the Pacers' run to the NBA Finals 17 months later. Re-live the Pacers unbelievable run to the 2025 NBA Finals with IndyStar's commemorative book 'I wanted to have a conversation, 'Hey, is this something you actually you want to do? Do you want to be here?'' Haliburton said Saturday, recounting the conversation. 'Because I think that the guys who have been a part of the nucleus of this group, we cherish this organization and what we have been able to build here. I think every team, when you ultimately win a championship or play at a high level, there's a trade that happens or you bring in somebody from the outside to be a part of it and you don't want to make the wrong move, right. 'If you go in for Pascal, you want it to be about the right things.' In Siakam, the Pacers were looking for an high-caliber complementary piece to Haliburton. At that point a two-time All-Star, Siakam had also garnered All-NBA second- and third-team nods during his career, and won a title with Toronto in 2019. And in Indiana, Siakam saw the forming momentum of a franchise rallying around a superlative young point guard. The kind of creative ball handler who could score in bunches but create for teammates with equal ease. 'We had a great conversation, and I think we just very much so aligned on wanting to win and that being the emphasis,' Haliburton said. 'I told him that, 'Hey, we could really play well together. I think I could get you the ball in space and allow you to do what you do.' He preached that there's many things that he could do to help me succeed.' And so it's been in the year and a half since a three-team trade brought Siakam to Indianapolis. After re-signing with the Pacers on a four-year contract worth close to $190 million in July, Siakam turned in the third All-Star season of his career this winter. He led Indiana in points and rebounds per game, and thus far is doing the same in the playoffs. He even narrowly edged Haliburton for Eastern Conference finals MVP, after Indiana dispatched the Knicks in six games. Together, their adaptable skillsets embody a team whose versatility has become one of its greatest strengths. These Pacers can play big or small, defend well, run the floor and find their offense all over it. Trading for Haliburton handed Indiana a franchise cornerstone around which it could build a winner. Siakam became the final, crucial piece to that puzzle. Together, they have positioned the Pacers as an NBA title contender for the first time in a quarter century, all of it starting with one forthright phone call between two men crucial to making it possible. 'The biggest thing that I can respect about him is just his work ethic,' Haliburton said. 'He comes in the gym, I know he's going to be there every day. I know the exact hoop he's going to be on, so I try not to take his hoop. I let him get his one-on-one work in. 'Seeing him work that hard makes me want to work harder, and I think that goes through our group. I love having him as a teammate.'
USA Today
28 minutes ago
- USA Today
Isaiah Hartenstein says sacrifices must be made for Thunder to win NBA championship
Isaiah Hartenstein says sacrifices must be made for Thunder to win NBA championship After sticking with the double-big lineup for the first three rounds, Mark Daigneault adjusted his starters before Game 1 was even played against the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder went with Cason Wallace over Isaiah Hartenstein. That meant Chet Holmgren slid down to his natural center position. The move had its desired results of creating havoc in the perimeter and forcing turnovers at a high rate. The only problem was that they only scored 11 points off the 25 turnovers they created. After a heartbreaking Game 1 loss, the starting lineup change was questioned. Even though the data backed it up, some traditionalists believed the Thunder shouldn't have changed what wasn't broken. Making the preemptive move made some folks shake their head. Force the opponent to adjust to you. Not the other way around. But if you follow the Thunder long enough, you should know flexibility has been Daigneault's specialty. Wallace started a good number of games during the regular season. He was OKC's unofficial sixth starter as it juggled through injuries. Two days afterward, Hartenstein didn't question the decision. The 27-year-old mentioned the word 'sacrifice' several times. He understands that's what it takes to reach the NBA Finals. Perhaps the real point of criticism from Daigneault's Game 1 was abandoning both centers for the small-ball lineup in the clutch. 'We have one of the best coaches in the league. We trust whatever choices he makes. If you wanna win a championship, there's gotta be sacrifices," Hartenstein said. "That's what I'm ready to do. If it's sacrificing minutes or sacrificing what I want to do on offense or defense. Whatever the team needs. It's not like you lose confidence when you play fewer minutes. I know I'm still one of the best bigs in the league." Who the Thunder start in Game 2 will be something to watch. Going back to Holmgren-Hartenstein could patch up a lot of their rebound woes. But that leaves them more vulnerable on the perimeter. Sticking with Wallace will help break up Indiana possessions, but it leaves them at a serious size disadvantage. There's no right or wrong answer. Like Daigneault always says, there are trade-offs to both. Perhaps one bet that's guaranteed to happen is Hartenstein's increased role. He had nine points and nine rebounds off the bench. They could use that type of production with any lineup.
