What Eurovision's voting patterns can teach you about European politics
Ahead of Saturday's final in Basel, journalists at AFP analysed all points distributed among around 2,300 possible pairs - voting country/receiving country - since 1957.
Patterns emerged, pointing to factors ranging from geopolitics and cultural affinities to the simple love of a good song.
The various regional blocs in Europe taking part in the contest - Nordic, ex-Yugoslavia, former USSR, Baltic - broadly show solidarity with each other, allocating the majority of their points to those in their own bloc.
Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland have thus provided more than one-fifth of the points Sweden has received since it first took part in 1958.
But while blocs show clear patterns, discordances suggest other factors are also at play.
Advertisement
Political tensions persist in the Balkans, for example, "but the cultural connections seem to have trumped the political divisions", Dean Vuletic, author of Postwar Europe and the Eurovision Song Contest (2019), told AFP.
"I would say that this is because these countries do share a music industry."
On the other hand some countries stand out for the very low number of points exchanged.
Azerbaijan and Armenia, which fought two wars in Karabakh, have exchanged only one point - in 2009 by Armenia to its neighbour.
Voting patterns also show distinct pairings of countries consistently voting higher than average for each other.
Striking examples here include Cyprus and Greece, which since 1981 have given each other between above eight points (when the maximum was 12, up to 2015) and above 18 (when it was 24, since 2016) more than what they get on average.
Romania and Moldova are another reciprocal pair, giving each other since 2005 between above nine and above 12 points more than their average score.
As neighbouring countries, geography helps explain this recurring behaviour, as does language, but also familiarity with performers.
"They intermix a lot," Nicholas Charron from the University of Gothenburg said to AFP.
"There's so much collaboration across borders in terms of songwriting, in terms of choreography, the professionals that worked in these countries."
On the flip side, there are also examples of one-way traffic: a country giving higher-than-average points to another that does not respond in kind.
Cases include France, the country that has given more points to Israel than any other.
It over-votes for Portugal too, as soon as the public has had a say - its average points allocated jumped from three to nine without reciprocity.
Since 1997 voting at Eurovision is split between juries and the public in each country.
Advertisement
From that date, and up to 2012, Germany showed a notable over-voting for Turkey, averaging 10 points when before it had allocated around 1.4, while no such chumminess was displayed from the Turks.
Labour laws and demographics can help explain this - in 1961 onwards as part of a guest worker deal, around three-quarters of a million Turks came to Germany to take jobs, creating over time a large diaspora.
The diaspora vote, as soon as the public had a say in voting, would also seem to be at play in the French one-sided votes.
"My guess is there's a lot of Portuguese people living in France that are voting for their own country and there's almost no French people that either care or vote from Portugal," Charron said.
As for France to Israel, "this is indeed explained because France has the largest Jewish community in Europe," said Florent Parmentier at Sciences Po university in Paris.
Flashpoint events can impact the vote in isolated years.
In 2022 for example, the year Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, there was a huge upswing in votes for Kiev, which won the contest.
And the public vote swung it for them.
From 28 out of 39 countries, the public awarded Ukraine maximum points, while only five juries did. With 439 points out of a possible 468, no country had ever received so many points from the public.
Such a surprise win could be an example of "volatile" factors having an impact, Farid Toubal from the University of Paris Dauphine told AFP.
"The arrival in government of a dictator or a nationalist changes the dynamics with regard to (that country's) partners in Eurovision."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Local Norway
26-05-2025
- Local Norway
'It was my destiny': Norway director on Cannes runner-up prize
"Sentimental Value", his moving story about a quietly fractured Norwegian family with Elle Fanning got an extraordinary 19-minute standing ovation when its Cannes premiere ended in the early hours of Thursday morning. Even the director found himself crying behind the camera as he shot it, he told AFP. "It sounds cheesy, but I wept a lot making this film because I was so moved by the actors," he said of his cast, which play members of an arty family in Oslo who struggle to communicate. "The actors are my friends. I know that they were being halfway a character and halfway themselves. And that they were also dealing with stuff," said the maker of "The Worst Person in the World". That film landed the Norwegian two Oscar nominations and won then-newcomer Renate Reinsve the best actress award at Cannes in 2021. Many critics said it also should have won the Palme d'Or top prize. And many thought Trier should have won it again Saturday, with some calling "Sentimental Value" a contender for best film of the year. "I think it was my destiny to win the Grand Prix," a rueful Trier told reporters afterwards -- a reference to the failing fictional director portrayed in the film, who had also won the same prize in 1998. "I am almost as good as him now," Trier joked. Advertisement Fanning said "The Worst Person in the World" -- which brought Trier to her attention -- is "easily one of the best films in the last decade or even longer. It is just perfect," she told AFP. It was the last film in his "Oslo Trilogy" of intelligent, bittersweet explorations of life in the Norwegian capital. 'Crying and crying' Trier is famous for the rapport he builds with his actors. "We were a family too," he told AFP of the shoot for "Sentimental Value", rehearsing his script around the kitchen table of the beautiful old wooden home in Oslo where the film was shot, itself a character in the story. The heads that keep butting in Trier's on-screen family are the absent father, an arthouse filmmaker who has long been put out to grass, played by Swedish legend Stellan Skarsgård, and his stage actress daughter (Reinsve). "I think a lot of families carry woundedness and grief," Trier said. "And talk often doesn't help. It gets argumentative. We get stuck in our positions, the roles we give each other unconsciously." Advertisement The bad old dynamics are changed by the arrival of an American star -- Fanning playing someone only millimetres from her real self -- a fan of the father. She comes bearing lots of Netflix dollars to revive one of his long-stalled scripts. "We don't get too many Hollywood stars wanting to be in small Norwegian-language films," Trier joked of Fanning's interest in his films. "When Joachim sent me the script, I read it and I was just crying and crying by the final page," Fanning told AFP. "It is so emotional. It's a very personal piece for Joachim and you can just feel that rawness in it." Trier 'magic' The director comes from a family steeped in the Scandinavian film industry. He dedicated his Grand Prix at Cannes to his grandfather, Erik Lochen, a member of the Norwegian resistance during World War II. "He was captured and his way to survive after the war was to play jazz and to make films," Trier said. Lochen's film "The Hunt" also competed for the Palme d'Or at Cannes, in 1960. It didn't win either. It was beaten by a film called "La Dolce Vita". Trier admitted that that history, which is alluded to in his new movie, made it all very "meta". "You're making a film about a family with your filmmaking family. And you've got a meta Hollywood star," he said. But there are not that many parallels with his biological family. "It's not like I'm throwing anyone under the bus. My whole family has actually seen the film and are very supportive," he said. The filmmaker father, he insisted, is a mash-up of great auteurs such as Ingmar Bergman, Krzysztof Kieslowski and John Cassavetes. The "magic" that Fanning said Trier creates on set comes from taking your time, he told AFP, taking on the big themes with a light, humorous touch. "Anyone who's had experience of therapy -- and I have -- will know that it's about the silences and letting things arrive. Very often (that) is also the case with actors," said Trier. "We had quite a few moments like that in the film actually. Renate would look at me and I look at her and I say, 'What was that? That was interesting.' And we don't talk about it anymore. "But when people see it in editing, they go, 'Wow!'"
Local Norway
22-05-2025
- Local Norway
'Sentimental Value': The Norwegian film making waves at Cannes
"It sounds cheesy," he said, "but I wept a lot making this film because I was so moved by the actors" playing members of an arty family in Oslo who cannot talk to each other despite all their supposed sophistication. "The actors are my friends. I know that they were being halfway a character and halfway themselves. And that they were also dealing with stuff," said the maker of "The Worst Person in the World", which landed the Norwegian two Oscar nominations and won newcomer Renate Reinsve the best actress award at Cannes in 2021. Many critics that year said it also should have won the Palme d'Or top prize. "We were a family too," said Trier, rehearsing his script around the kitchen table of the beautiful old wooden home in Oslo where the film was shot, itself a character in the film. The heads that keep butting in Trier's on-screen family are the absent father, an arthouse filmmaker who has long been put out to grass, played by Swedish legend Stellan Skarsgard, and his stage actress daughter (Reinsve). "I think a lot of families carry woundedness and grief," Trier said. "And talk often doesn't help. It gets argumentative. We get stuck in our positions, the roles we give each other unconsciously." Elle Fanning a 'mensch' The bad old dynamics are changed by the arrival of Hollywood star -- Elle Fanning playing someone only millimetres from her real self -- a fan of the father, who comes bearing lots of Netflix dollars to revive one of his long-stalled scripts. "We don't get too many Hollywood stars wanting to be in small Norwegian-language films," Trier joked. But just like her character in the film, Fanning got the part through complete fandom, flying to Oslo between shooting the Bob Dylan biopic, "A Complete Unknown", and the new "Predator" in New Zealand. Advertisement "I am a massive fan" of Trier, she told AFP in Cannes, where the film is in the running for the Palme d'Or. "I think 'The Worst Person in the World' is easily one of the best films in the last decade or even longer. It is just perfect." "When Joachim sent me the script I read it and I was just crying and crying by the final page. It is so emotional," Fanning added. "It's a very personal piece for Joachim and you can just feel that rawness in it." Advertisement Trier -- who comes from a family steeped in the Scandinavian film industry -- admitted it is all very "meta. You're making a film about a family with your filmmaking family. And you've got a meta Hollywood star." But they are not that many parallels with his biological family. "It's not like I'm throwing anyone under the bus. My whole family has actually seen the film and are very supportive," he said. The filmmaker father, he insisted, is a mash-up of great auteurs such as Ingmar Bergman, Krzysztof Kieslowski and John Cassavetes. Trier, 51, is famous for the bond he builds with his actors and he praised Fanning as the latest member of the family. "She is a real mensch -- a really kind and collaborative, cool person," he said. -Trier 'magic' The "magic" that Fanning said Trier creates on set comes from taking your time, he told AFP, taking on the big themes with a light, humorous touch. "Anyone who's had experience of therapy -- and I have -- will know that it's about the silences and letting things arrive. Very often is also the case with actors," said Trier. "We had quite a few moments like that in the film actually. Renate would look at me and I look at her and I say, 'What was that? That was interesting.' And we don't talk about it anymore. "But when people see it in editing, they go, 'Wow!'"
Local Norway
18-05-2025
- Local Norway
Austria's JJ wins Eurovision 2025 with opera-techno fusion
After votes from national juries around Europe and viewers from across the continent and beyond, JJ gave Austria its first victory since bearded drag performer Conchita Wurst's 2014 triumph. After the nail-biting drama as the votes were revealed running into Sunday morning, Austria finished with 436 points, ahead of Israel -- whose participation drew protests -- on 357 and Estonia on 356. "Thank you to you, Europe, for making my dreams come true," 24-year-old countertenor JJ, whose real name is Johannes Pietsch, said after his triumph in the Swiss city of Basel. "Love is the strongest force in the world. Let's spread more love," the Austrian-Filipino singer said. " Wasted Love " saw him hit the high notes while mixing opera and techno. His Eurovision song, about the experience of unrequited love, blends lyricism and balladry, before ending with a techno flourish. His performance, broadcast in black and white in 4:3 ratio, captivated viewers around Europe. "What a fantastic success! My warmest congratulations on your victory," said Austria's Chancellor Christian Stocker, adding: "JJ is making Austrian music history." The Philippine Consulate General in Frankfurt also issued a message of congratulations to JJ on Facebook. Advertisement "What an incredible moment -- Filipino pride on the European stage!," it said. Celine Dion no-show The 69th Eurovision Song Contest was held at Basel's St. Jakobshalle, packed with 6,500 excited ticket-holders dressed to the nines while 36,000 others watched a live transmission in a nearby stadium. An estimated 160 million people across Europe and beyond were expected to tune in for the annual TV spectacle, where kitsch, glam and spectacular staging go hand in hand. Twenty-six countries were in contention, with 11 having been eliminated in the semi-finals during the week. Basel had been abuzz all week with rumours that Celine Dion might make an emotion-laden appearance as she battles Stiff Person Syndrome. The Canadian superstar, now 57, launched her international career by winning Eurovision 1988, while competing for Switzerland. But in the end, she did not appear. "We have been in contact with her through various channels and regret that ultimately it was not possible to include her in the show," Eurovision organisers told AFP. Advertisement "We send her all our best wishes and, above all, good health." Sweden had long been the bookmakers' hot favourite to win in Basel with the comedy trio KAJ's sauna song "Bara Bada Bastu". READ ALSO: What do the lyrics of Sweden's Eurovision entry Bara Banda Bastu actually mean? But they finished fourth ahead of Italy, Greece and France as JJ scooped up the microphone-shaped trophy. Albania, Ukraine and Switzerland rounded out the top 10. Israel protests As the televotes came in, Israel held the top spot until, right at the very end, the public votes for Austria gave the Alpine nation the right to host Eurovision next year. Israel's participation in Eurovision 2025 prompted a series of protests in Basel over the war in Gaza. Israel's entrant Yuval Raphael survived the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the Gaza war, hiding beneath bodies as Hamas gunmen attacked a music festival, killing hundreds. Advertisement During the performance of her song "New Day Will Rise", loud whistles could be heard and two people tried to get on stage. "At the end of the Israeli performance, a man and a woman tried to get over a barrier onto the stage. They were stopped. One of the two agitators threw paint," a Eurovision spokesman told AFP. They were taken outside and handed over to police, he added. Elsewhere in Basel, pro-Palestinian demonstrators clashed briefly with riot police. Blows were exchanged and officers deployed tear gas. Ahead of the final on Saturday, Spain's public broadcaster defied the organisers to air a message in support of Palestinians -- despite being warned to avoid references to the Gaza offensive. 'Ich Komme' The songs in contention were a showcase of Europe's different musical scenes. They included a Portuguese guitar ballad, a Maltese diva, Lithuanian alternative rock, an Italian singalong, a Greek power ballad, ethereal Latvian choral folk and German booming beats. Estonia's wobbly-legged Tommy Cash finished a close third with his cod-Italian " Espresso Macchiato " song. Finland's Erika Vikman -- who gained momentum during Eurovision week with the orgasmic " Ich Komme " -- was hoisted in the air on a spark-emitting golden microphone. Poland's Justyna Steczkowska, 52, set a new record between Eurovision appearances, returning 30 years after her first performance. The Netherlands' competitor Claude broke into tears after performing his song "C'est La Vie". French singer Louane, who lost both her parents as a teenager, performed her song "Maman", with falling pieces of cork representing the sands of time. And Malta's Miriana Conte finished her diva big number "Serving" by bouncing up and down on an exercise ball.
