Can Liberal Tom White unseat teal Kate Chaney to win back Curtin in the federal election?

Australia Broadcast Center

30-04-2025

Things don't tend to move quickly in Western Australia's most affluent electorate.
Curtin takes in some of Perth's wealthiest suburbs, where beautiful homes look out over sweeping coastal views and stereotypes abound of residents vehemently opposing any change, especially around planning laws.
Despite those generalisations, which really only represent a portion of the electorate, the political landscape in Perth's western suburbs has changed rapidly over the last few years.
Curtin takes in some of Perth's wealthiest suburbs.
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It had been Liberal heartland, as blue as they come for almost all of its 73 years, often represented by cabinet ministers.
Climate 200-backed independent Kate Chaney made history at the last election
The Liberals' 13.9 per cent margin was destroyed by a campaign focused in large part on climate change, drawing economically conservative but socially progressive Liberals away from a party they saw as drifting further to the right.
But three years on, the issue is nowhere near as prominent as Ms Chaney attempts to maintain her 1.1 per cent margin.

Even here, cost of living pressures weigh heavily on voters' minds.
"When I'm doorknocking, many people are still deeply concerned about the climate," Ms Chaney told the ABC.
Ms Chaney says voters are still thinking about climate, just not as much.
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"The cost of living challenges that people are under has meant that's become a very immediate focus for people.
"But I don't think it changes the underlying need for good long-term thinking that will affect things like inflation, but also climate change."
Her challenger, former international Uber executive Tom White, has picked up on the same feeling among voters.
Tom White says politicians should be focused on national issues, as well as needs in their own backyards.
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"It's very rare that someone brings up climate change when I'm doorknocking," he said.
"As you'd expect, more fundamental hip pocket issues are confronting people.
"It is a public policy problem, but we have many public policy problems and we can't be overly distracted by one thing at the expense of others."
Climate a shrinking issue
That shift is reflected in ABC Vote Compass data — which showed a 19 per cent drop in the proportion of Western Australians who think more needs to be done to address climate change at this election.
Kelvin Fewings is traditionally a Labor voter and has noticed his own priorities shifting too, with Perth's continuing housing crisis now his dominant concern, overtaking climate change.
That's despite being in what he describes as a "very fortunate" position with support from his parents and a healthy fly in-fly out wage.
Curtin voter Kelvin Fewings wants all sides of politics to be more ambitious.
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"It's still a pressing issue in my mind, but it's not as pressing because it's not right in your face," he said.
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It's hard to worry about next week when you don't know about [the] next day.
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The 25-year-old wants to see more bold action from politicians, and a wider focus.
"I think it'd be great if we could go back to talking about environmental policy as a crisis instead of everyday living as a crisis," he said.
What is the role of a local MP?
Both Chaney and White seem to reflect deeply on the role of politicians in tackling both short- and long-term issues on electors' behalf.
Ms Chaney says her supporters show her campaign is a "grassroots" effort.
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Beyond their policy offerings, each has a different view on what the role of a local MP is.
While some of the Liberals' campaign has been about promises — upgrades to local infrastructure and nuclear power as a low-emission energy source — there's also been a focus on what they argue is the lack of power an independent can wield, especially in a majority government.
Signs for both candidates have covered the electorate ahead of polling day.
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Among the flood of pamphlets filling local letterboxes have been flyers carrying messages like "Let's make Curtin matter" and "Don't risk it with Chaney".
A letter from John Howard sent in the final week of the campaign tells voters: "If you want a change of government, there is nothing to be gained by parking your vote in the middle."
Listening to the community
Chaney's campaign messages were reflected in signs she and her supporters waved in what they've dubbed a "'flute flurry" along local roads like the busy West Coast Highway.
In the mix are a few with messages like "climate action now" and "Kate for climate".
Ms Chaney says her campaign reflects the concerns of her community.
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"Honk for transparency" one read, "listening to Curtin" another.
Ms Chaney said she demonstrated the latter when last year she changed her position from supporting the end of the live sheep trade to opposing it.
"Because I listened to my community, and I think that if politicians are not willing to change their mind we've got a real problem," she said.
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It is that aspect of the job — representing the views of her community in political debate — which Ms Chaney sees as central to the role of a federal MP.
"We've got these national challenges that we need to deal with, like housing and productivity, tax reform, climate — these are the things that federal government should be focused on," Ms Chaney said.
"And if governments think that they can buy people's votes with little infrastructure projects at a local level, we're missing the opportunity to really set a direction for the country."
Mr White says it's important to operate in a party "where a cheque can be written".
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Mr White broadly agreed, and said he wanted to "elevate" discussions about how to grow the national economy as one example.
But he also believes there is a legitimate role for federal representatives to play in funding "justifiable investments in local community infrastructure".
"And you do, frankly speaking, just need the clout of operating in a party where a cheque can be written rather than a letter being written," Mr White said.
Donation spotlight
Whether those cheques can be written, or whether Ms Chaney's views can translate to much more than debate, is out of either of their control.
Their power, or otherwise, will be decided by the makeup of the Parliament and whether either Labor or the Coalition can govern in their own right.
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Neither is leaving anything on the table though when it comes to what they do control.
Ms Chaney's donor wall showed $930,684 in donations so far this year, as of Wednesday afternoon, about a third of which came from Climate 200.
Ms Chaney says she's proud to have overseen a positive campaign.
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Mr White would not say how much he has received in donations, but that: "if your opponent is spending well over seven figures then there's an obligation to respond".
As the end of the race nears, both seem content they've given it all they can.
Tom White says he's happy with the campaign he's run.
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"I'm feeling really positive … it's going to be close, but I'm feeling good about it," Ms Chaney said.
Mr White described himself as being "at peace", no matter the result.
"I think I've done just about everything I can do," he said.
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