Chasing NBA Lottery Dreams: The Hidden Dangers Of Tanking

Forbes

09-05-2025

In recent years, the concept known as "tanking" has gained popularity among NBA organizations and fans. The term refers to the idea of organizations intentionally positioning themselves to lose games late in the season in order to secure a better draft choice. This strategy does not entail players deliberately losing on the basketball court, but rather teams depleting their rosters and resting players who are healthy enough to compete. The fourteen teams that miss the playoffs are eligible for the NBA draft lottery. Therefore, they have a greater chance to land a potential franchise altering player through the draft.
There are incentives for teams to tank. The three teams with the worst records in the league have the best odds of winning the lottery, each holding a 14 percent chance of securing the top pick in the draft. The fourth-worst team has a 12.5 percent possibility of landing the No. 1 pick, while the fourteenth-worst team has a 0.7 percent chance. Franchises participating in this year's draft lottery are hoping to land talented forward Cooper Flagg from Duke, who is widely regarded as the consensus top pick. His exceptional basketball skills and marquee value make him an attractive prospect, both on and off the floor.
Ironically, the NBA Draft lottery was created to reduce the likelihood of teams tanking. From 1966 to 1984, the NBA determined the No. 1 pick in the draft by flipping a coin between the teams with the worst records in each conference. For instance, the Los Angeles Lakers, who acquired the Utah Jazz's first-round draft choice in 1979, won a coin flip against the Chicago Bulls and landed Magic Johnson. The Houston Rockets held the No. 1 overall pick in both 1983 and 1984, selecting standout centers Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon. This prompted the NBA to implement changes due to speculation that the Rockets intentionally positioned themselves to lose games in order to secure the top draft pick in consecutive years. To promote competitive balance, the NBA established the lottery system in 1985.
Recently, the NBA implemented additional changes in an attempt to discourage tanking. In 2019, the league reduced the lottery odds for the worst three teams to secure the first overall pick from 25 percent to 14 percent. Additionally, the Play-In Tournament was introduced during the 2020-21 season to further address the issue of tanking and provide more teams with an opportunity to qualify for the playoffs.
Luck plays a role with the lottery balls. What often occurs is that teams with favorable odds to land the top pick ultimately end up settling for a later selection within the top 10. The Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Utah Jazz have never won the lottery. The current version of the Charlotte Hornets franchise is long overdue, having consistently qualified for the lottery without ever being awarded the top pick. Conversely, the Chicago Bulls defied the odds by securing the first overall pick in 2008, despite having only a 1.7 percent chance.
Even if a team lands the No. 1 overall pick, there is no guarantee that the selected player will perform up to expectations. Several of the highest draft choices over the past two decades have been teenagers, which carries significant risk. For instance, the average age of ESPN's top 30 prospects for the 2025 NBA Draft is 19.6 years. It takes time for young players to develop and adjust to the NBA game.
There have been numerous examples of both successes and failures in the draft. Teams such as the Washington Wizards, Los Angeles Clippers, and Sacramento Kings have a history of drafting poorly with their lottery picks. While the Cleveland Cavaliers selected LeBron James with the No. 1 overall pick in 2003, they also drafted Anthony Bennett with the top pick ten years later—a player who averaged only 4.4 points per game over his four-year career. The San Antonio Spurs won the lottery in 1987, 1997, and 2013, selecting gifted big men David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and Victor Wembanyama with those picks. However, they drafted Kawhi Leonard with the 15th pick in 2011, Tony Parker with the 28th pick in 2001, and Manu Ginóbili with the 57th pick in 1999, all of whom are Hall of Fame-caliber players. This illustrates the importance of scouting and the ability to identify exceptional talent later in the draft.
Interestingly, some of the top players in this season's playoffs were not top 10 draft choices. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, along with Jalen Brunson of the New York Knicks and Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors, are all former second-round draft picks. Jimmy Butler, currently with the Warriors, and Pascal Siakam, who now plays for the Pacers, were drafted 27th and 30th overall, respectively. Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell was selected 13th overall by the Jazz. Siakam's teammate, Tyrese Haliburton, was a former 12th overall pick, while MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder was chosen 11th by the Clippers. These selections demonstrate that superstar players are not always top 10 draft picks.
In the NBA, every championship run or era of playoff contention eventually comes to an end, and all teams enter a rebuilding process. Supporters of tanking argue that teams must endure terrible seasons to ultimately improve through the draft, suggesting that mediocrity for an extended time period is the least favorable position to be in for an NBA team. Another rationale is that basketball is different from other sports because a single player can completely transform a franchise. There is no doubt that organizational decisions of this nature can be challenging, and the prospect of acquiring a potential generational talent is enticing. Short-term sacrifices for long-term gains, right? However, what are the potential costs of tanking? Are some organizations overlooking critical success factors?
The practice of tanking contradicts the fundamental principles of sports, which are rooted in values such as competitive spirit, the pursuit of excellence, and a commitment to giving one's best effort. Also, an organization's decision to raise the white flag during a season can convey a negative message to its fan base. NBA fans invest time and money following their teams with the expectation that organizations will showcase their best product on the floor each night. With tanking, organizations risk losing the trust of their fans unless they are fortunate enough to hit the jackpot, win the lottery, and land a superstar—a possibility, but an unlikely scenario. How many seasons is a franchise willing to gamble?
Although there may be mathematical incentives for losing games, culture plays a crucial role in establishing and sustaining success in any team endeavor. The two most successful franchises in NBA history, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers, have seldom held the top overall pick in the draft. When they have, it was typically the result of a shrewd trade rather than an extended period of losing. A strong team culture demands excellence on a consistent basis, and this expectation should permeate throughout the organization. Therefore, it may be a more effective strategy for organizations to focus on building chemistry on the court and allow luck to take its course. In other words, the objective should be to win as many basketball games as possible. Instilling a winning mindset and developing positive habits may pay dividends in the future.