Why this Six Nations will decide the future of French rugby

Independent

30-01-2025

The trope that 'you never know which France are going to turn up' for the Six Nations has long since been dispelled. Truthfully, it was always more lazy stereotype than searingly accurate truism but, in recent years, they have become perhaps the most consistent rugby force in the northern hemisphere.
Since Fabien Galthie took charge following the 2019 World Cup, Les Bleus haven't finished lower than second in the five editions of the Six Nations they've contested. They've developed an explosive, scintillating back-line that has game-changers in every position, led by the best player in the world, with a skillset the sport has never seen before, in Antoine Dupont.
Athletic freaks dotted throughout their pack, combined with a dynamic but hard-grafting back row, possibly the best complete coaching staff in world rugby installing systems the players buy into and the best domestic league on the planet providing a pipeline of fresh talent have all added up to make them a formidable force.
This 'golden generation' that, in addition to Dupont, boasts superstars such as Romain Ntamack, Damian Penaud, Gael Fickou, Gregory Alldritt and Uini Atonio has thrilled fans but also avoided the dysfunction that sometimes plagued former iterations of the French team.
Yet for all the plaudits they rightly receive, the 2025 Six Nations is the most important in French rugby history and will likely come to define not only this squad but the future direction of the national team. No country is under greater pressure and this championship is the very definition of must-win for Les Bleus as they approach a fork in the road.
For all their brilliance, France have won precisely one Six Nations title since 2010. Yes, their 2022 grand slam was awfully impressive but fail to win the title this year and their return will be just one crown in 15 years. By contrast, England and Wales have claimed four Six Nations championships in that time, while Ireland have five.
The trophy cabinet is embarrassingly bare and it's now reached the point where they must put up or shut up in terms of silverware. Galthie is clearly a fine coach but when a frustrating 13-13 draw with Italy in Lille last year swiftly followed a limp 38-17 loss to Ireland in Marseille to begin the championship, there were the first murmurs that the 55-year-old may lose his job.
Those whispers got loud enough that French Rugby Federation president Florian Grill was forced to come out and say he wasn't about to sack his head coach but another trophyless Six Nations will only increase the noise around whether the entire Galthie project has run its course.
Of course, under the management of the former scrum half, everything had been building to the home World Cup in 2023, when Les Bleus were destined to become just the second northern hemisphere team, after England's class of 2003, to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy – doing so in front of their adoring public at the Stade de France.
Unfortunately, they hadn't counted on a Springbok juggernaut standing in their way at the quarter-final stage and one of the most gripping Test matches of all time ending in heartbreak.
It would be harsh to call that an outright failure for Galthie but the expectation was that they would end the tournament holding the trophy aloft and that didn't happen.
It's not easy to pick yourself up from that sort of crushing disappointment, so perhaps the 2024 Six Nations was seen as something of a free hit, especially with Dupont absent as he turned his attention to sevens ahead of the Olympics.
But add the World Cup failure to their habit of sending second-string teams on the summer tours and it's clear that all the eggs are in the Six Nations basket. There is no acceptable excuse for them not to triumph this year.
Dupont combining with a fit-again Ntamack immediately gives them by far the strongest half-back pairing in the championship, while it's fairly straightforward to build a case against each of their five rivals.
Ireland are playing with a temporary head coach and looked fallible in the autumn, Scotland have been hit by the injury bug just when they might finally have had an opportunity to end a 25-year trophy drought, England spent 2024 proving they are unable to win tight games amid an ongoing identity crisis, Italy's positive green shoots are not remotely near enough to yet be considered title contenders and the less said about Wales, the better...
Even if France weren't impressive in their own right, they might be favourites for the title by default. The bookies agree, and have them just ahead of Ireland at the head of the betting market, while a schedule that begins with a gentle home 'test' against beleaguered Wales followed by a trip to Twickenham to face an England side who they beat by a record margin there two years ago is relatively friendly.
The beauty of this being a sliding doors Six Nations for the boys in blue is that if they can actually go on to lift the trophy, it will vindicate everything they're doing. A frustrating 18 months consisting of World Cup heartbreak and two Six Nations failure would instead suddenly become a year that has seen Toulouse cement themselves as the best club team on the planet, the Dupont-inspired sevens side win Olympic gold on home soil to partly banish those World Cup memories and a Six Nations crown secured. French rugby would suddenly be in a very good place.
It would be full steam ahead to the 2027 World Cup, after which Galthie's contract ends, and while nothing will ever truly salve the wound of not lifting the Webb Ellis Trophy in Paris, there would be genuine belief they could at least become world champions for the first time in someone else's backyard.
This Six Nations is more important for France than any other team – in fact, it is pretty much existential for Galthie specifically – and one way or another, by 11pm on 15 March 2025, the future of French rugby will be set.