NBA Finals predictions! Who will be champion: Pacers or Thunder? And who will win Finals MVP?
The 2025 NBA Finals are here! Will the Thunder complete one of the greatest NBA seasons of all time? Or will the Pacers pull off a major upset? Our writers break down the series and make their championship predictions.
1. What's the biggest question in the Finals?
Vincent Goodwill: Tyrese Haliburton's name is on a poster in OKC's locker room, as a wanted man (sarcasm), and he'll receive special attention from the league's best defensive team. How will he handle it? It's arguable he's more important to the outcome of this series than even the MVP, because so much revolves around him. There's no Jalen Brunson to hunt, no Mikal Bridges to torture. If he's not the engine, the Pacers have a hard time scoring. If he's supercharged, they have a shot— maybe a thin shot, but a shot.
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Tom Haberstroh: How can the Pacers get Tyrese Haliburton cooking? He's largely been a nonfactor against OKC's defense the past two seasons, averaging just 12 points per game in four matchups. He's proved the doubters wrong all postseason long, so I wouldn't count out Haliburton in this series. But getting an aggressive Hali will go a long way toward upsetting the Thunder.
Dan Devine: Can the Pacers get enough stops against the Thunder offense to stay connected? For all the focus on the other side of the ball — on the strength vs. strength matchup of Indiana's fast-paced offense against Oklahoma City's high-pressure defense — OKC swept the regular-season series largely by scoring 123.5 points per 100 possessions against the Pacers defense. Newly crowned MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to get his. Can Indiana find a way to limit Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and the rest of Oklahoma City's supporting cast enough to keep the games tight and give its elite crunch-time attack an opportunity to tilt the run of play?
(Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Dan Titus: Ratings, ratings, ratings. But no, seriously, which bench unit will truly swing the Finals? Both the Pacers and Thunder utilized deep rotations to achieve success in the postseason. Rick Carlisle and Mark Daigneault masterfully adjust their lineups to match their opponents. The minutes that X-factors like Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell or Obi Toppin provide could tip the scale of a game or even a championship.
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Ben Rohrbach: Can Indiana's defense withstand Oklahoma City's offensive firepower? We talk a lot about Indiana's high-powered offense (for good reason) and even more about OKC's top-rated defense (for good reason), but the Thunder play with pace and score in bunches, too. Can Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith stay in front of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without fouling? Is Myles Turner a formidable enough last line of defense? Can everyone else stay home on Oklahoma City's shooters? It is a lot to account for, and that is just in the halfcourt. God forbid the Thunder catch your defense in transition.
2. Who has the most at stake in the Finals?
Rohrbach: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If he were to win the title and capture Finals MVP honors, he would become only the third guard in NBA history to seize both the regular-season and Finals MVP awards in the same season, joining Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson. He would join Jordan as the only guards ever to hold a scoring title and Finals MVP honors at once. In his wake on the all-time list of point guards would be Chris Paul, Steve Nash and John Stockton. Ahead of him would only be Johnson, Stephen Curry, Isiah Thomas and Bob Cousy — the multi-time champions. This is the company he could keep with a win.
[2025 NBA Finals: Pacers-Thunder and the legacies on the line]
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Titus: Tyrese Haliburton. Mr. Statistician Face Man mentioned Hali's underwhelming performances against the Thunder the past two seasons. If that trend bleeds into the NBA Finals, are we sure Haliburton's beaten the overrated allegations? I disagree with the narrative, but a poor showing would give the haters more ammo to reignite that asinine conversation. For all the signature moments he's provided this postseason, I'm anticipating he'll rise to the occasion and continue silencing the critics against one of the best defenses we've seen in a very long time.
Haberstroh: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but if I'm being honest, it's hard to drum up do-or-die stakes when these teams are so young and have such bright futures ahead of them. With that said, the Pacers are playing with house money right now, so the pressure is all on the Thunder to deliver after winning 68 games with the MVP. If SGA wins a title, the volume on the foul merchant chants won't hit the same decibels next season.
Goodwill: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP, the league's scoring leader and, let me repeat, MVP by a wide margin. The last reigning MVP to get to the Finals and lose was Stephen Curry in 2016. And remember those jokes, the 3-1 cookies and the like? People still bring that up. Nobody bags on Allen Iverson for 2001. He was lauded for that one-game performance. But Karl Malone in 1997? A big topper in Michael Jordan's legacy. It's too early for the legacy stuff, seriously. But reputation? It will be solidified as the league's top big-game player, the foul merchant stuff will quiet, and entering the club of champions is far more important than most can imagine.
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Devine: It's tough to go too heavy into legacy talk with so many of the principles here still so young, with so much runway ahead of them … so let's go with Rick Carlisle. Only 14 coaches in NBA history have won multiple championships, and only three (Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Alex Hannum) have led more than one franchise to the promised land. No observer with a pulse and two eyes can doubt the impact Carlisle has had on winning throughout his tenures in Detroit, Dallas and Indiana; a second ring, though, would put him in historically exclusive company.
3. Name an X-factor in this series
Devine: Chet Holmgren. I wrote all about why in our series preview, but the CliffsNotes: He didn't play in either regular-season matchup against Indiana, and whom he guards, who guards him and the downstream effects of those two decisions will represent pretty major tactical questions on both sides of the floor. If he can limit Pascal Siakam and keep turning the paint into a no-fly zone, I'm not sure how Indiana scores enough to win this series; if he struggles as much as literally every other defender has with Siakam and gets drawn out of the paint, then the Pacers might have a pathway.
Rohrbach: Andrew Nembhard. It sounds like he will draw the initial defensive assignment on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. During the regular season, he spent 70 possessions defending SGA in their two matchups, according to the NBA's tracking data. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 27 points on 11-of-18 shooting (61%), as the Thunder scored 124.3 points per 100 possessions in that span. Not good. And after what he expends on defense, can Nembhard give the Pacers anything on offense? On a handful of occasions, he has scored 17+ points in these playoffs. In another handful, he has scored single digits. Which Nembhard shows up?
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[NBA Finals preview: Pacers-Thunder key matchups, schedule, X-factors and prediction]
Haberstroh: Lu Dort. The All-Defensive First Team member has averaged 18.8 points per game against the Pacers over the last two seasons, which is actually more than the All-Star he was tasked to guard, Haliburton. A lot will hinge on his ability to knock down open shots and lock down Haliburton. If he averages 18.8 points per game in the Finals and neutralizes Haliburton, I low-key could see an Iguodala-esque Finals MVP future.
Goodwill: Myles Turner. The bigs in Minnesota struggled with the length, aggressiveness and speed of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Turner was in foul trouble in three of the six conference finals games, and even though he doesn't always score big, he has to be an athletic presence on offense and deterrent on defense. He has to make SGA at least think, for a beat, as opposed to giving him free access everywhere. If he's the inside-outside monster who dominates his matchup, that's a significant flex for the Pacers.
Titus: Aaron Nesmith. Whether defending Jalen Williams or SGA, Nesmith's switchability is key to disrupting any flow of OKC's potent offense. Offensively, Nesmith's elite 3-point shooting in the postseason, specifically from the corner, could offset the Thunder's suffocating defense. As great as OKC's defense is, the Thunder's constant ball pressure can sometimes leave them vulnerable on weak-side rotations. That's an opportunity for the hot-shooting Pacers and Nesmith to take advantage.
4. After Game 1, everyone's going to be talking about _________
Titus: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It's all eyes on the MVP, as SGA will set the tone for the series from the outset. In their two regular-season matchups, SGA averaged 39 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 stocks on 56% shooting from the field. He hasn't missed a beat through three rounds and he ain't stopping on the NBA's biggest stage.
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Goodwill: Lu Dort. He plays football and at times, can be reckless going for loose balls. Defending Haliburton will be his main task, and unlike Anthony Edwards, Haliburton isn't the same physical specimen, so getting pushed around won't be looked at so kindly. But yes, sticking his chest into everybody will be a story after Game 1.
Devine: Alex Caruso. People really like talking about Alex Caruso.
Rohrbach: The Thunder's defense. They are historically great, and it is a sight to see. They swarm, forcing a ton of turnovers and turning them into easy, entertaining transition opportunities. It is the most jarring part of watching them, other than the brilliance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Between Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso — and even Gilgeous-Alexander — Oklahoma City has waves of point-of-attack defenders to throw at Tyrese Haliburton. In the first of their games during the regular season, the Thunder held him to his lowest usage rate of the season. In the other, the Thunder limited him to three assists. Replicate anything close to either of those accomplishments, and the Pacers have no chance.
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Haberstroh: Chet Holmgren. He didn't play in the regular-season matchups against Indiana, and he's been much better at home than on the road this postseason. There's a good chance he'll be the story coming off his Western Conference finals run. I could see him sliding over at center especially if Indiana goes zone. He's critical to everything they do.
5. What's your Finals prediction, and who's the Finals MVP?
Haberstroh: Thunder in 5. My head is telling me it's gonna be a sweep, but my heart won't let me go there. The villainous Pacers will get hot and torch OKC from deep to steal one game, but I'm going with my preseason pick, the Thunder, in a quick one. SGA wins the first clean sweep of MVP and Finals MVP since LeBron James in 2012-13.
Titus: Thunder in 6. The Pacers will show resilience and steal a couple of games with their depth and coaching adjustments, but OKC's brilliance will ultimately prevail. It's only fitting that SGA concludes this historic year by becoming the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, MVP and Finals MVP in the same season.
(Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Rohrbach: Thunder in ... 4. With all due respect to the Pacers, the watered-down Eastern Conference has met its match in a 68-win juggernaut. Give Gilgeous-Alexander his Finals MVP, and call it a summer.
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Devine: Read the preview! It's all in there! OK, fine: Thunder in 6, and SGA caps off a season for the ages by adding Finals MVP hardware to his regular-season and Western Conference finals MVP trophies.
Goodwill: Thunder in 5. It's not disrespect to the Pacers. It's just the Thunder are that damn good and those 68 wins weren't by accident. They graduated by beating the Nuggets in the seven-game slugfest. Now, it's time to turn those tassels over, with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way as the Finals MVP. It's OKC's time.
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