The endgame of a 2,611-year-old Jewish-Persian enmity

The Hindu

a day ago

Despite their well-known mutual loathing, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, leader of the most right-wing government ever in Israel, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, could agree on one matter yesterday: the primordial significance of the all-out conflict between their countries. While Mr. Netanyahu called it 'a decisive moment in Israel's history', Khamenei was equally definitive in his verdict: 'With this crime, the Zionist regime sealed for itself a bitter and painful destiny.'
Well planned
Indeed, June 13, 2025, when Israel launched its 'Rising Lion' operation to obliterate Iran's nuclear and missile threat, is likely to go down as an important inflection point in the epically bitter 26 centuries-old legacy of Jewish–Persian conflict dating back to 586 BCE when the Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar II destroyed first Jewish temple and obliterated Kingdom of Judah. While the current Israeli campaign is still unfolding, it appears to leverage Israeli gains from 21 months of war against Iran's proxies and against the Islamic Republic itself. As is the Israel Defence Force's (IDF) well-known penchant for a short-but-intense technology-and- intelligence-driven blitzkrieg, it began with a multi-pronged and well-coordinated attack on Iran's hard and soft strategic infrastructure, in particular the nuclear, missile and human assets. According to Israeli sources, more than 200 Israeli air force jets hit over 100 targets. Among the high-value targets assassinated were the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and the commander of Iran's Emergency Command as well as six nuclear scientists.
The campaign to defang Iran seems to have been well prepared for by both Israel and its friends, many of whom, while professing non-involvement, took measures to corral Iran into a corner. Since the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel systematically pulverised Iranian proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Ouster of pro-Iran al-Assad regime in Syria and its replacement by a divisive and weak HTS-led Sunni regime completely denied Iran the first line of defence facing Israel. Provocative assassinations on Iranian soil pushed Iran into launching missile attacks on Israel, triggering targeted Israeli retaliations against Iranian air defences, further denuding it of antiquated SAM capabilities. On its part, IDF beefed up its multilayered defence capacity against Iranian missile and drone attacks with laser-beam-based countermeasures, acquired bunker-buster ammunition and other offensive assets needed to attack well-defended Iranian nuclear facilities, often located deep underground.
While the United States and other friends of Israel have feigned non-involvement in the conflict and called for a diplomatic solution, the circumstantial evidence suggests the contrary. Trump 1.0 tore up the hard-negotiated Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, instead applying 'maximum pressure' on Iran under which it froze Iranian assets abroad and debilitated its vital oil exports. These sanctions were tightened further after Donald Trump's second term commenced earlier this year. The Trump administration pressed Saudi Arabia to unwind OPEC+ oil production curbs to create a global oil glut, causing prices to fall by nearly 20% during the first four months of 2025, mainly to curb Iran's clandestine oil export revenues further. Further, the U.S. armed forces launched some of their heaviest attacks in recent times on al-Houthis to force them to abandon their campaign to disrupt shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb choke point. At a geo-political level, the U.S. and three West European countries managed to successfully steer a resolution in the IAEA Board of Governors meeting condemning Iran as in violation of its nuclear commitments. Passage of this resolution on June 12, for the first time in 20 years, a day before Israeli military action, does not appear coincidental and was perhaps intended to provide legal cover for the latter. To some extent, the recent sudden and unexplained U.S. overtures towards Islamabad also could be seen as designed to leverage Pakistan's role as Iran's largest neighbour with the longest common border and its military's traditional role in protecting the Arab monarchies, putatively against Iranian threats.
Arab world's worries
The largely Sunni Arab world has mixed feelings about the Israeli aggression against Iran. They have little love lost for either of the two belligerents. At the same time, they have deep apprehensions about any blowback from Israeli actions by Iran or by its proxies. This may come in several ways, such as disrupting the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of global oil supplies pass daily, anonymous attacks against high visibility strategic targets, and insinuating Shia minorities against Sunni regimes. At the same time, the regional unrest and strategic preoccupations of the regimes may afford motley regional anarchists such as ISIS and al-Qaeda to revive their terrorist campaigns.
The extent of the Israeli operations, now in its first day, is stated to be limited to eliminating Iranian strategic capabilities. The observers, however, worry that this action may unleash other unforeseen consequences in the region and beyond. A lot would depend on whether Israel can accomplish its objectives surgically without either backlash or collateral damage, such as radioactivity and contamination. There is an even probability of Iran being able to withstand the onslaught and live to fight another day. This would not only run counter to Israeli strategy for a short, surgical strike, but also force hitherto uncommitted Iranian masses to stand along the beleaguered regime facing an external threat. The unilateral adventurism against Iran would become yet another albatross around Israel's neck in the largely unfriendly Third World. In case the hostilities protract over a long period, the costs would add to the global economy's existing travails due to other regional conflicts, and tariff wars. The bad news coming in droves would result in higher inflation due to an oil price surge, lower growth, disrupted supply chains and stock market mayhem. Last but not least, this could put paid to Donald Trump's boastful remarks about him stopping the 'endless wars' that other U.S. Presidents unleashed.
The conflicts have a nasty pattern of defying their prognosis, and this Israel-Iran bout could well pan out very differently from its initial choreography, under which Tehran is defanged and left to its own devices, akin to Saddam Hussein's Iraq after Operation Desert Storm in 1991. On the other hand, a badly wounded Iran could well expand the conflict to inflict retributions upon pro-Western states within its reach, perceived to be accomplices in the Israeli invasion. This may well drag in the United States directly, with consequences ranging from a forced regime change in Tehran to a kaleidoscopic redraw of regional geopolitics.
Impact on India
India has well-known high stakes in this unfolding conflict – from the security of the nine million strong Indian diaspora to nearly half of its foreign remittances and oil supplies, as well as a significantly large portion of its exports and inward investments. It would be hoping against hope for an early and decisive end to the hostilities and a quick return to regional stability.
In retrospect, Iran's quest for nuclear technology has inflicted enormous costs on the country that was already well endowed with hydrocarbons. By some calculations, it has expended up to $100 billion in chasing its nuclear mirage, in the hope of ensuring its national security. The current turn of events may entitle many to wonder if this imprudent quest had exactly the opposite effect.
Mahesh Sachdev is a retired Indian Ambassador specialising in West Asia and oil affairs