Why Londoners have given up on the Cotswolds

Telegraph

11-05-2025

The Cotswolds needs little introduction. With picturesque countryside and honey-coloured villages packed with handsome homes, private members' clubs, celebrities and tourists, it has long been the ultimate place for Londoners to escape to.
But new figures show that the London exodus to this desirable corner of England has shrunk.
People from the capital accounted for 9pc of people looking to buy a property in the Cotswolds last year, down from a peak of 14pc in 2021, according to analysis by Hamptons.
This is because they are being priced out. Average prices in the Cotswolds have risen 56pc since 2014, twice the growth recorded in London (28pc) over the last decade, according to Hamptons' analysis of Land Registry data.
'Londoners haven't had the housing market on their side for the best part of a decade,' says David Fell, of Hamptons.
The pandemic turbo-charged momentum in the Cotswolds. 'There was an influx of London buyers during Covid who were flush with cash. Larger family homes skyrocketed in price because stock levels were low,' says Amelia Craven, of RA Bennett.
By last year, the average property in the Cotswolds cost 18pc less than one in London, a stark contrast with 2016, when the gap was 34pc.
'While the gap between prices in the capital and pretty much everywhere else peaked around 2016, it's been steadily closing since then,' says Fell. 'Today the gap between prices in the capital and the Cotswolds is around £80,000 smaller than it was at its peak. This means the average Londoner gets less house for more money or faces compromising on a picture-postcard location.'
'You won't see that £30k Airbnb income now'
Demand has been dented in part as the life has gone back to pre-pandemic usual. 'There has certainly been a change in working attitudes,' says Paul Houghton-Brown, of Hamptons. 'People need to be back in the office more and they have less time to enjoy a second home. That second home buyer market has dropped away.'
And owning a holiday home has become much more expensive, after council tax for second properties in the local authority was doubled – although very wealthy buyers may well shrug off this increase. The proportion of second home buyers eyeing the Cotswolds has edged down from 5pc during the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022, to 4pc in 2023 and 2024.
Meanwhile, the staycation boom has eased, taking its toll on lettings, suggests Andrew Cronan, of Recoco Property Search. 'A lot of people purchased Cotswolds property to enjoy as a second home and let out to holidaymakers on platforms, such as Airbnb, but that buyer appetite has cooled off dramatically,' Cronan explains.
'You won't see £20,000 to £30,000 annual income that you were almost guaranteed during the pandemic years. A key reason for this is that a lot of people favour holidaying in sunny locations abroad ever since travel restrictions have been lifted.'
For Lindsay Cuthill, of Blue Book Agency, the market had settled into more typical conditions last year following the Covid rush. 'The urgency had faded, and buyers were making more considered decisions rather than panic purchasing,' he says.
Tighter economic conditions have also piled pressure on buyers, with factors ranging from higher mortgage costs, to increasing tax. This includes a hike in the stamp duty surcharge for second home purchases from 3pc to 5pc in last year's Budget.
'Elections, high interest rates, shifting tax policies, and changes to non-dom rules have cast a shadow over the market, dampening activity across the UK,' says Jonathan Harington, of Haringtons UK. 'The Cotswolds – where the upper end of the market is traditionally driven by discretionary purchases – felt this slowdown even more acutely.'
The rise in big-ticket homes
Despite cooling demand from some buyers, the proportion of big-ticket homes changing hands in the Cotswolds has climbed. The percentage of homes sold for £1m or more reached 9.2pc in 2023, the highest figure in Hamptons' research, which stretches back to 2008. The level dipped to 8.7pc last year.
Harry Gladwin, of The Buying Solution, says: 'The £3m to £7m part of the market is still pretty busy. The wealthy view these homes as a long-term lifestyle, not just a financial decision. Quality and privacy are more important than ever.'
In the £2m to £5m price bracket, 'the real quality, timeless, well-located properties are still sought-after and get premiums. The less special properties, which would have been mopped up in a good market, are left on the shelf', he adds.
The Cotswolds has always been popular, reports Giles Lawton, of Strutt & Parker: 'As one US buyer said: 'You find an area as pretty and accessible as the Cotswolds and I'll buy there. But I can't find it.' That popularity has endured and people tend to stay for a while.'
Against this backdrop, sales in the Cotswolds have become increasingly local. The average distance moved last year was 20.6 miles – 57pc lower than in 2022. And nearly a third of buyers moved less than 10 miles last year, up from a low of 10pc in 2022, according to Hamptons.
Mary Hughes and her husband are selling their four-bedroom home in Broadway, through Chartwell Noble, and downsizing within the village. She says: 'We wouldn't dream of going anywhere else.'
'We have been here for more than 40 years. The attraction was the same then as it is now. We have beautiful, hilly surroundings and honey-coloured stone buildings
'There are many clubs and activities, the Royal Shakespeare Company in nearby Stratford-upon-Avon, and fast trains from Moreton-on-Marsh to London. It's very easy to live here.'
Craven has seen more local movement recently: 'During Covid, that was impossible. Stock levels were low and vendors were looking at Londoners or cash buyers who flooded the market, whereas now, the positive growth in house values has meant that those who were already homeowners in the area prior to this period have built equity to allow them to move more freely,' she explains.
Harry Gladwin, of The Buying Solution, says: 'The local buyers I tend to deal with are either people renting while looking for the right house to buy, or those downsizing from a bigger house with land to a village house.
'I have a few younger clients who moved from London to the Cotswolds 'golden triangle' pre-Covid and sold during or post-Covid. They saw huge increases in their property values during that time. They have now moved to less busy areas of the Cotswolds where they get more value for money.'
It's not just local buyers raising their profile. Claire Whisker, of First In the Door, says one of its buying agents has noticed an uptick in overseas buyers recently, particularly expats returning to the UK and second home buyers from Jamaica, UAE and America.
Where to find value for money
Buyers seeking better value are looking beyond the Cotswolds' golden epicentre for a similar home at a more affordable price.
Gladwin estimates buyers generally get 10pc more value for money in villages to the west of Stow-on-the-Wold, such as Guiting Power, Naunton and those up towards Snowshill, than in the heart of the Cotswolds.
Nicholas Le Ny-Clarke, of Chartwell Noble, says: 'Londoners are starting to look further afield to villages in Warwickshire, such as Whichford, Cherington and Brailes, as well as those closer to Banbury in Oxfordshire.
'They are looking for the same house but more value for money and a real community. They want a proper local pub that they don't have to book months in advance. People tend to live here year-round.
'A house suitable for the Chipping Norton set might be a third cheaper half an hour away into the borders of Warwickshire and Oxfordshire.'
Buyers tend to get even more value towards Cirencester, Gladwin adds. 'There are some areas where you will see 20pc to 30pc more value compared with the 'golden triangle'. These villages are relatively unspoilt and not in the melee of 'Daylesfordshire'.'
This chimes with Samantha Scott-White, of Cotswold Buying Agent, who says: 'The further south you go, the better value you get. The villages around Cirencester are really lovely. If you want more value for money, head further south towards Tetbury, Nailsworth, Wotton-under-Edge and Sherston.'