LNP stronghold seat of Groom will be 'in play' at federal election

Australia Broadcast Center

01-05-2025

Air Force veteran John Bushel is feeling optimistic about Saturday's federal election as he sits in his backyard in southern Queensland.
Mr Bushel lives in in the rural town of Wyreema 15 kilometres south west of Toowoomba, which places him in the division of Groom, a seat long held by the Liberal National Party (LNP) — but that's not why he's smiling.
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"I'm enjoying the election because we have competition in the electorate of Groom, which is something of a new feeling," he says.
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I think it's good to see that other candidates are showing a real interest.
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The cost of living, health, climate change and veterans affairs are big issues for John Bushell.
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ABC Southern Qld: Dan McCray
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The seat of Groom, which encompasses the large inland city of Toowoomba, has been warmed by Liberal and National backsides for the last 89 years.
The last incumbent to lose the seat of Groom – or Darling Downs as it was called back then – was Arthur Morgan in 1931.
That's if you don't count the division's namesake, Sir Littleton Groom, who died in office in 1936.
More recently, LNP MP John McVeigh comfortably held the seat.
At the 2019 election, he won more than 70 per cent of the vote on a two-candidate-preferred basis.
That number fell to 67 per cent in a 2020 by-election, when Garth Hamilton took over, and again to 57 per cent in 2022, in line with a
"You wonder why you need to vote, because you know that one candidate's going to win," Mr Bushel said.
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So what difference is my vote going to make?
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Groom up for grabs?
Mr Bushel plans to vote for independent candidate Suzie Holt on Saturday.
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In 2022 the former social worker shocked many by making it to the final count.
Ms Holt recorded eight per cent of the primary vote but surged to 43 per cent after preferences, thus delivering the closest result in Groom in 64 years.
"Everyone was very surprised when Suzie Holt got through to the final two last time," ABC election analyst Antony Green said.
"It was such an improbable route … it took the Electoral Commission a week and a half before they started changing their preference count."
This year Ms Holt is running with the backing of funding organisation Climate 200 and her campaign is highly visible across the electorate.
"I think people know that for a very long time we've been a very safe seat," she said.
"And I think this is an opportunity – a golden opportunity, to quote Tony Windsor – to actually make the seat competitive."
Demographic shift
Toowoomba has seen strong population growth in recent years amid an influx of domestic and overseas migrants.
Jackson Musgrove has been following the election on social media.
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ABC Southern Qld: Peter Sanders
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But household incomes have remained below the national average and housing availability is tight.
Jackson Musgrove, 19, says the political offering on the table doesn't appeal to young people worried about issue such as housing and student debt.
"I want to give the smaller parties a go — I don't feel like the bigger parties have it anymore," he said.
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They're not pushing what I want as a young person.
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LNP MP Garth Hamilton says the claim that Groom is a safe seat is a "teal talking point".
"There's a fundamental flaw in this idea that there's some negative connotation with that," he said.
"If I pointed to any other place in regional Australia where numbers have been much tighter — where would you rather live than Toowoomba?"
Mr Hamilton pointed to major infrastructure projects such as the $1.6-billion Second Range Crossing as evidence that Groom was not being neglected.
The 41-kilometre road has transformed the city by allowing road freight to bypass it.
Garth Hamilton claimed Groom in a 2020 by-election.
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ABC News
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One Nation wildcard
Eight candidates are contesting Groom this election, but Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams says Ms Holt is the only one in a position to challenge the LNP.
Her path, he says, may involve One Nation voters.
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"If she beats Labor in the primary vote – and depending on where those populist right candidates' preferences go – it's not impossible that Suzie could win that seat," Dr Williams said.
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It's not likely — you'd still want to be the LNP candidate – but what should be a lock for the LNP is certainly a seat in play.
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He said One Nation voters often ignored party preference directions, which made them unpredictable.
"There'll be a lot of One Nation voters who say, 'We're not even going to listen to our own party leader — I'm going to put my preferences where I want to,'" Dr Williams said.
"If that happens and Labor is knocked into third place, their preferences could flow to Holt and then the seat is in play."