Israel's attack on Iran puts a leader addicted to war in the spotlight
For more than 600 days now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has waged war. First on Hamas, then on Hezbollah and the Houthis, now on Iran, with occasional airstrikes targeting the new government in Syria carried out seemingly at whim.
Many of the military operations Mr. Netanyahu has ordered since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel were understandable to many at the outset, even as the act of launching a war is and should be the most serious order a commander-in-chief can give.
Hamas knew retribution was coming when its fighters marauded across southern Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and taking 251 others back to Gaza as hostages. Hezbollah and the Houthis similarly earned Israel's wrath by repeatedly launching rockets and drones at Israel in the chaotic aftermath of Oct. 7. Iran's nuclear program, and the possibility that it could one day develop weapons of mass destruction, was a concern far beyond the Middle East.
And yet, taken together – and put in the context of Mr. Netanyahu's political and legal troubles – they paint an unflattering picture of a leader addicted to war.
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If the wars stop, Mr. Netanyahu's right-wing nationalist coalition likely falls apart. A deeply divisive figure after 15 years in power, his re-election prospects look bleak, even as he has repeatedly defied past predictions of political doom.
If Mr. Netanyahu is not in the prime minister's chair, he would almost certainly be back in court facing corruption allegations that could see him jailed for up to 10 years. There's also an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest, in connection with alleged war crimes the Israeli military has committed in Gaza, not to mention questions about what he knew about Hamas's plans – and what actions he did and didn't take – in advance of the Oct. 7 attack.
And so, the wars go on. Neither mass protests in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, nor mounting pressure from nearly all of Israel's increasingly unsettled allies (Donald Trump's White House being the giant exception), has convinced Mr. Netanyahu to accept the deal that's been on the table for months: end the war in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing all its remaining hostages. Freeing the hostages, remember, was the reason Israel launched its war on Gaza more than 20 months ago.
Instead, Mr. Netanyahu keeps resorting to war – a tool that has thus far failed to bring home the 53 Israelis still missing in Gaza, many of whom are believed to already be dead. Instead of a ceasefire that would allow the Palestinians to properly count their own casualties (the estimated death toll compiled by Gaza's Ministry of Health is an appalling 55,000 people), Mr. Netanyahu has ordered a broadening of Israel's war aims.
Rather than handing over Gaza to some kind of Arab or international force, as has been repeatedly proposed since very early in the war, Mr. Netanyahu wants Israel to once more take control of the strip, which it withdrew its soldiers and settlers from in 2005. The fate of Gaza's 2.1 million inhabitants seems to be of little concern to Mr. Netanyahu, who has gleefully seized on Mr. Trump's unworkable suggestion that the Gazans could be given new homes elsewhere. That's called forced displacement, a war crime.
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Anyone who criticizes Mr. Netanyahu and his wars is slapped with the allegation that they're somehow anti-Semitic or supporting Hamas. When Canada, Britain and France warned last month that they would be forced to take unspecified actions – which we now see includes Canadian and British sanctions against far-right members of Mr. Netanyahu's cabinet, and potential French recognition of a Palestinian state – if Israel didn't change course in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu turned his rhetorical fire on some of his country's staunchest allies, accusing them of 'emboldening Hamas to continue fighting forever.'
And now, Iran. Friday's attack on the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, and the assassinations of many of Iran's top generals and scientists, had clearly been meticulously plotted for years by Israel's military and its Mossad intelligence service. The timing of the strike also had the helpful cover of an International Atomic Energy Agency report, published Thursday, that found Tehran was no longer in compliance with its non-proliferation obligations.
But there remains no evidence suggesting Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon – let alone threatening anyone with it – next week, next month or next year. Indeed, Mr. Netanyahu's order to attack came one day after it was announced that Mr. Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, would hold face-to-face talks in Oman on Sunday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
In other words, the door to a negotiated solution to the Iran nuclear issue (another one, after Mr. Netanyahu encouraged Mr. Trump to walk away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action back in 2018) was very much still in play.
But a negotiated solution that kept the peace and saw sanctions lifted off the Iranian economy was never what Mr. Netanyahu wanted. Speaking on a stage in Paris to a conference of civil society groups hoping to breathe life into the long-dormant Israeli-Palestinian peace process, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert said Mr. Netanyahu was acting out 'his lifelong desire … to show how strong and powerful and Churchillian he is in fighting against Iran and destroying their nuclear program.'
Mr. Olmert – who, unlike Mr. Netanyahu, resigned as prime minister when he was charged with corruption back in 2009 – has a special disdain for the man who succeeded him, and who has held on to the prime minister's post for 15 of the past 16 years. Mr. Olmert was in Paris this week trying to revive the two-state peace plan that he and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas were largely in agreement on before Mr. Olmert was forced from office.
It's a plan to end Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip that Mr. Netanyahu has never shown serious interest in pursuing. Instead, he has expanded Israel's illegal settlement blocks as life has gotten steadily worse, and more violent, for Palestinians living in the occupied areas.
Nobody at the hopeful talks in Paris – which were overshadowed by Mr. Netanyahu's decision to launch another war of unpredictable length – could envision any kind of peace process so long as Hamas holds sway in Gaza and Mr. Netanyahu remains in his office in Jerusalem.
'It's very hard for non-Israelis to understand,' said Eran Etzion, a former deputy head of Israel's National Security Council who was also in Paris for the two-state peace conference. 'But you need to think about Israel now – about Netanyahu and Netanyahu's regime – like you think about Putin and Putin's regime.'
Mr. Etzion's comparison was carefully chosen. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a ruler who fears what might happen to him if and when he leaves office – and who has proven willing to drag his population into one war after another to avoid having that day come to pass.
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