What are the risks in taking Matthew Schaefer with NHL Draft's No. 1 pick?
Matthew Schaefer is the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. When healthy, he's an elite skating defenseman with size, offense, a high compete level and the potential to be a legit two-way No. 1 in the NHL. But the fact remains that Schaefer only played 17 OHL games this season. That's a real risk, and one the New York Islanders will have to weigh carefully after nabbing the top pick thanks to the lottery.
Schaefer came into the year as a very highly regarded prospect. He was the top pick in his OHL Draft, had a good 16-year-old season in the OHL and played well for Canada at last spring's U18 World Championships. In the summer, he was considered among the best players for the upcoming draft, but he wasn't a consensus 1/1. Players such as James Hagens, Michael Misa and others were right in the conversation with him.
Schaefer then dominated the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in August, wowing every major decision-maker in attendance with his all-around play. He missed the start of the OHL season afterward due to contracting mono. He was then the best player again at the CHL/NTDP series in November and was arguably Canada's best player at the World Juniors before breaking his clavicle in their second match.
The body of work this season thus comprises 17 very good OHL games, in which he dominated often for Erie, and several standout international events. Still, 17 games is a thin foundation for a first-overall pick.
Scouts mostly still rank Schaefer first, but several have expressed mild reservations about how little they saw him. There's no way to know how his full season would have played out. Maybe he would have dominated wire-to-wire, much like Misa did this year in the OHL, scoring over 60 goals in a monster draft season. Or maybe more games would have exposed areas of his game that didn't show up in short bursts. Some NHL scouts, for example, express mild reservations about how much offense Schaefer has and whether he's a true first power-play unit type in the NHL — although some scouts don't have that concern at all. It's worth noting that in his 16-year-old OHL season, Schaefer didn't produce at a major level offensively.
Team executives picking at the top of the draft have enormous stakes, potentially their careers, tied to these decisions, so they want as much information as possible. However, there have been a few key instances in recent memory of a top-five pick not having an extended portfolio of games. Morgan Rielly (2012, 5th to Toronto)
Rielly tore his ACL early in his draft year and played just 18 WHL games. Despite the small sample, scouts felt confident in his dynamic skating and puck-moving ability. That projection proved accurate: Rielly developed into a cornerstone defenseman for Toronto.
Key difference: Despite then-Toronto GM Brian Burke's proclamation when he drafted Rielly that he was the best player in the 2012 draft, Rielly was never seriously in the mix for most scouts to be the top pick. That is a different level of stake than picking someone first or second overall. The isolated major injury is a very similar situation, though, especially given Rielly was a Canadian defenseman who had played well in international events. Alex Galchenyuk (2012, 3rd to Montreal)
Galchenyuk missed nearly his entire draft season with a knee injury. He had a strong 16-year-old OHL season the year before and still showed enough skill post-injury to convince Montreal to pick him third. Early NHL flashes followed, including a 30-goal season, but he never fully developed. His skating/pace was an issue, as was his play without the puck.
Key difference: Galchenyuk was a bet on earlier production and reputation. Schaefer, while also limited, dominated the major events this season when healthy, giving teams fresher, better evidence. Schaefer is also a superior athlete to Galchenyuk, even if his pure skill at the same age wasn't as flashy. Nolan Patrick (2017, 2nd to Philadelphia)
Patrick entered his draft year as a projected top pick after dominant prior WHL seasons. However, sports hernia complications limited him to 33 games. He still went second overall, but recurring health issues and missed development time slowed and eventually derailed his NHL career.
Key difference: Patrick's injury issues extended beyond the draft year and became chronic. There's no indication of a chronic problem with Schaefer. Teams were also somewhat wary of Patrick's game in his draft season. He had fallen off from a potential first-overall pick in the summer, and after playing 30 games, scouts weren't as sold on him, often ranking him 2-6. The extra games played is the above point reinforced; with more data, the better a team can feel about its evaluation. The 2021 draft
The 2021 draft provides critical context on evaluating prospects through limited draft-year games.
Owen Power, Matty Beniers and Kent Johnson all had their NCAA seasons at Michigan heavily shortened. Mason McTavish played limited games in Switzerland with the OHL season canceled. Luke Hughes missed significant U.S. NTDP time with injuries and COVID disruptions. Brandt Clarke spent his draft year playing overseas in Slovakia after the OHL shut down.
Despite all of that, most of the top 5-8 picks from 2021 have developed into strong NHL players, or are well on their way. Power, Beniers, McTavish, Hughes and Johnson have already become major contributors in the NHL, and Clarke is on track. It seems teams were able to correctly identify the top talents in the age group despite limited draft season data.
Schaefer's case isn't identical — COVID shutdowns are different from missing time due to injury — but he has a similar track record of performing at major moments and a clearly identifiable, unique toolkit in a similar way to Power, Beniers and McTavish in the 2021 draft.
There's a lot to like — and a lot to bet on — with Schaefer. His combination of high-end skating, a strong compete level and great offensive skill/IQ reminds a lot of NHL scouts of Miro Heiskanen at the same age. My current comparison in the NHL is Ottawa's Jake Sanderson, but Heiskanen doesn't offend me as a potential outcome for Schaefer.
We don't know how a full season would have played out — whether he would have dominated the OHL or whether weaknesses would have emerged over a full schedule. That unknown is a risk in his profile and should limit the amount of certainty evaluators have on the player when discussing his projection.
History shows that elite talent can overcome limited draft-year games (Rielly, Power, Hughes) — but it also shows how missing large chunks of a critical development year can lead to real problems (Patrick) if the player isn't fully healthy or doesn't continue developing at the same pace.
Schaefer is my, and many scouts', No. 1 prospect in this class. For some scouts, there is a major drop-off to the next-best player. For others, it's close, which I agree with. Misa is not that far off from Schaefer, and I could see a plausible case made for several other forwards.
Schaefer remains the smart choice at No. 1. But it's a calculated gamble — one that demands a real belief in both his talent and the conflicting evidence in his body of work and his continued progression once he's finally playing a full schedule.
(Photo: Dennis Pajot / Getty Images)
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New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
Prosecutor calls Michael McLeod the architect of Hockey Canada sexual assault
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McLeod, Carter Hart, Alex Formenton, Dillon Dubé and Cal Foote are all charged with sexual assault after an alleged incident in June 2018 in which a 20-year-old woman — known as E.M., whose identity is protected by a publication ban — has said she was sexually assaulted over the span of several hours in a London, Ont., hotel room. The players were in town for a Hockey Canada event celebrating their 2018 World Junior Championship victory. McLeod is also facing a second charge for 'being a party to the offense' for what the Crown has asserted was his role 'assisting and encouraging his teammates to engage sexually' with E.M. All five players have pleaded not guilty. Cunningham highlighted that a key factual difference between the Crown and defense cases is what prompted McLeod's teammates to come to his hotel room after he and E.M. had consensual sex. She said that the factual issue will 'shape how the evidence is viewed.' 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Cunningham said E.M. was pressed repeatedly on the suggestion that she had prompted McLeod to invite others back to the hotel in pursuit of a 'wild night' but 'never wavered' in her testimony that she was surprised when players arrived in the room. 'Time and again she is pushed on this very same issue and her evidence is always the same, that she was surprised when other people started coming into the room and she does not think she would have ever asked for him to invite other people,' Cunningham said. Cunningham said that Raddysh and Katchouk both testified about E.M.'s behavior that was consistent with the Crown's assertion that E.M. was not seeking group sex. Both players said that they observed E.M. in bed, with the covers up to her shoulders and neck, and that she did not participate in any conversation beyond asking Katchouk for a bite of pizza. She said this was behavior consistent with someone who felt uncomfortable, not someone who was looking to engage others sexually. She said that if the defense theory was true that she was asking McLeod to ask his teammates to come over for group sex — and wanting to engage in group sex — Raddysh and Katchouk's testimony defies logic. Advertisement 'It would make no sense she would make absolutely no effort to engage or attempt to engage with Mr. Katchouk or Mr. Raddysh, not a single offer,' Cunningham said. Cunningham also pointed out that the testimony of both Raddysh and Katchouk differed significantly from other witnesses about E.M.'s behavior that night. Crown witnesses Tyler Steenbergen, Brett Howden and defense witness Carter Hart all testified that E.M. was the aggressor, asking players to have sex with her and insulting them when they declined. When Carroccia pointed out this divergence in stories, Cunningham replied: 'I agree these things are irreconcilable and someone's not telling the truth,' Cunningham said. She noted that Raddysh and Katchouk's description 'is completely at odds' with the testimony of the players who were on the June 26, 2018, group chat. In that group chat, players strategized how to handle the impending Hockey Canada investigation and discussed what to tell investigators. Cunningham said that they were the only two players who saw E.M. in Room 209 that night who were not on that June 26, 2018, group text chain. Cunningham pointed to McLeod's actions from the night to make the case that he was the instigator instead, and facilitated a group sexual encounter unbeknownst to E.M. Cunningham used a visual display of the '3 way quick' and 'gummer' text messages, sent at 2:10 and 2:15 a.m. respectively. She said McLeod made no efforts to vet who came to the room or took any efforts to get people to leave, but instead was 'trying to drum up more business' and 'recruit more people.' Cunningham cited McLeod's phone call to Hart, his recruitment of Katchouk from the hallway and his knocking on Raddysh's door as evidence of this. '(E.M.) was doing nothing either verbally or through her actions to communicate that she was at all interested in engaging in sexual activity with them,' Cunningham said. 'But the evidence does establish that someone was offering sex to Mr. McLeod's teammates in Room 209 and it wasn't (E.M.).' Advertisement Cunningham ended with the fact that by McLeod's own admissions, he said he was consistently checking in on her throughout the night, telling Detective Newton in his 2018 interview that he and his teammates had a 'no phones' policy and that at one point he 'calmed her down' because he said she was upset no one was having sex with her. Cunningham said McLeod was intervening to 'take some responsibility for managing the room' while all the events were unfolding. 'The reason he is doing that is because this was his idea to begin with,' Cunningham said. 'He set this up.' Earlier in the day, the defense teams finished their closing arguments. Julianna Greenspan, who represents Foote, said that her client performed the splits over E.M. as a 'party trick' that was both 'non-threatening,' not sexual and a 'momentary interaction.' Foote is accused of doing the splits over E.M. while she was lying on her back, grazing his genitals over her face. Greenspan said that E.M. was seeking sexual encounters and attention and that Hart's testimony that she was laughing was 'consistent with her performative behavior in the room generally.' 'In plain language, Mr. Hart's evidence was, this was in a playful manner, this was a playful trick, and (E.M.) was absolutely in on it,' Greenspan said. Greenspan spent significant time returning to the issue of E.M. referring to the players as 'men' throughout her testimony, painting the decision as intentional. Greenspan hammered this point repeatedly in cross-examination, but reinforced on Wednesday that E.M. had 'an axe to grind.' Greenspan undermined the credibility of Crown witnesses Brett Howden and Tyler Steenbergen, both of whom said Foote asked in a phone call to leave his name out of what happened in the hotel room prior to the players' participation in the Hockey Canada investigation. Advertisement Greenspan said Howden was in 'protect Howden mode' and suggested that Steenbergen was influenced by Henein Hutchison investigator Danielle Robitaille in his 2022 interview with Hockey Canada; she described that as 'an investigation intended to support and corroborate the complainant's civil lawsuit, one that Hockey Canada had just settled.' Greenspan ended her closing argument by suggesting that the intense level of publicity and interest in the case has compromised the presumption of innocence and subjected the players, their families and their legal teams to unfair treatment, such as bullying and taunting. Lisa Carnelos, attorney for Dubé, finished her closing submissions on Wednesday by arguing that her client did not engage in any collusion via the group chat he participated in with teammates on June 26, 2018 — 'This is the most lame attempt at collusion I've ever seen in my life,' she said — or in either of the phone calls he had with Tyler Steenbergen and Brett Howden. She explained the group chat as 'the banter of young men' who were 'confused' and 'expressing nervousness and shock.' Carnelos described the phone calls Dube had with both Howden and Steenbergen prior to the Hockey Canada investigation — asking them to leave his name out of interviews with Hockey Canada about the incident — as 'innocuous,' and 'context specific.' (Steenbergen testified that Dube asked him not to mention what Dube did in the room to investigators, adding that he wanted to speak for himself. Howden previously told investigators that Dube made the same request of him.) Carnelos suggested it was 'reasonable' that the call was about Dubé's desire to call Hockey Canada staff member Shawn Bullock to tell Bullock himself about what happened. Carnelos also suggested that the Hockey Canada and London Police reopened their investigations as a result of a 'media frenzy' and described the situation as a 'political hot potato.' — The Athletic's Dan Robson contributed reporting remotely from Toronto. (Courtroom sketch of Crown attorney Meaghan Cunningham and Justice Maria Carroccia from earlier in the trial by Alexandra Newbould / The Canadian Press via AP)
Washington Post
2 hours ago
- Washington Post
Ernie Clement homers and Blue Jays beat Cardinals 5-2 for 3-game sweep
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Associated Press
3 hours ago
- Associated Press
Ernie Clement homers and Blue Jays beat Cardinals 5-2 for 3-game sweep
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