What are the risks in taking Matthew Schaefer with NHL Draft's No. 1 pick?
Matthew Schaefer is the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. When healthy, he's an elite skating defenseman with size, offense, a high compete level and the potential to be a legit two-way No. 1 in the NHL. But the fact remains that Schaefer only played 17 OHL games this season. That's a real risk, and one the New York Islanders will have to weigh carefully after nabbing the top pick thanks to the lottery.
Schaefer came into the year as a very highly regarded prospect. He was the top pick in his OHL Draft, had a good 16-year-old season in the OHL and played well for Canada at last spring's U18 World Championships. In the summer, he was considered among the best players for the upcoming draft, but he wasn't a consensus 1/1. Players such as James Hagens, Michael Misa and others were right in the conversation with him.
Schaefer then dominated the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in August, wowing every major decision-maker in attendance with his all-around play. He missed the start of the OHL season afterward due to contracting mono. He was then the best player again at the CHL/NTDP series in November and was arguably Canada's best player at the World Juniors before breaking his clavicle in their second match.
The body of work this season thus comprises 17 very good OHL games, in which he dominated often for Erie, and several standout international events. Still, 17 games is a thin foundation for a first-overall pick.
Scouts mostly still rank Schaefer first, but several have expressed mild reservations about how little they saw him. There's no way to know how his full season would have played out. Maybe he would have dominated wire-to-wire, much like Misa did this year in the OHL, scoring over 60 goals in a monster draft season. Or maybe more games would have exposed areas of his game that didn't show up in short bursts. Some NHL scouts, for example, express mild reservations about how much offense Schaefer has and whether he's a true first power-play unit type in the NHL — although some scouts don't have that concern at all. It's worth noting that in his 16-year-old OHL season, Schaefer didn't produce at a major level offensively.
Team executives picking at the top of the draft have enormous stakes, potentially their careers, tied to these decisions, so they want as much information as possible. However, there have been a few key instances in recent memory of a top-five pick not having an extended portfolio of games. Morgan Rielly (2012, 5th to Toronto)
Rielly tore his ACL early in his draft year and played just 18 WHL games. Despite the small sample, scouts felt confident in his dynamic skating and puck-moving ability. That projection proved accurate: Rielly developed into a cornerstone defenseman for Toronto.
Key difference: Despite then-Toronto GM Brian Burke's proclamation when he drafted Rielly that he was the best player in the 2012 draft, Rielly was never seriously in the mix for most scouts to be the top pick. That is a different level of stake than picking someone first or second overall. The isolated major injury is a very similar situation, though, especially given Rielly was a Canadian defenseman who had played well in international events. Alex Galchenyuk (2012, 3rd to Montreal)
Galchenyuk missed nearly his entire draft season with a knee injury. He had a strong 16-year-old OHL season the year before and still showed enough skill post-injury to convince Montreal to pick him third. Early NHL flashes followed, including a 30-goal season, but he never fully developed. His skating/pace was an issue, as was his play without the puck.
Key difference: Galchenyuk was a bet on earlier production and reputation. Schaefer, while also limited, dominated the major events this season when healthy, giving teams fresher, better evidence. Schaefer is also a superior athlete to Galchenyuk, even if his pure skill at the same age wasn't as flashy. Nolan Patrick (2017, 2nd to Philadelphia)
Patrick entered his draft year as a projected top pick after dominant prior WHL seasons. However, sports hernia complications limited him to 33 games. He still went second overall, but recurring health issues and missed development time slowed and eventually derailed his NHL career.
Key difference: Patrick's injury issues extended beyond the draft year and became chronic. There's no indication of a chronic problem with Schaefer. Teams were also somewhat wary of Patrick's game in his draft season. He had fallen off from a potential first-overall pick in the summer, and after playing 30 games, scouts weren't as sold on him, often ranking him 2-6. The extra games played is the above point reinforced; with more data, the better a team can feel about its evaluation. The 2021 draft
The 2021 draft provides critical context on evaluating prospects through limited draft-year games.
Owen Power, Matty Beniers and Kent Johnson all had their NCAA seasons at Michigan heavily shortened. Mason McTavish played limited games in Switzerland with the OHL season canceled. Luke Hughes missed significant U.S. NTDP time with injuries and COVID disruptions. Brandt Clarke spent his draft year playing overseas in Slovakia after the OHL shut down.
Despite all of that, most of the top 5-8 picks from 2021 have developed into strong NHL players, or are well on their way. Power, Beniers, McTavish, Hughes and Johnson have already become major contributors in the NHL, and Clarke is on track. It seems teams were able to correctly identify the top talents in the age group despite limited draft season data.
Schaefer's case isn't identical — COVID shutdowns are different from missing time due to injury — but he has a similar track record of performing at major moments and a clearly identifiable, unique toolkit in a similar way to Power, Beniers and McTavish in the 2021 draft.
There's a lot to like — and a lot to bet on — with Schaefer. His combination of high-end skating, a strong compete level and great offensive skill/IQ reminds a lot of NHL scouts of Miro Heiskanen at the same age. My current comparison in the NHL is Ottawa's Jake Sanderson, but Heiskanen doesn't offend me as a potential outcome for Schaefer.
We don't know how a full season would have played out — whether he would have dominated the OHL or whether weaknesses would have emerged over a full schedule. That unknown is a risk in his profile and should limit the amount of certainty evaluators have on the player when discussing his projection.
History shows that elite talent can overcome limited draft-year games (Rielly, Power, Hughes) — but it also shows how missing large chunks of a critical development year can lead to real problems (Patrick) if the player isn't fully healthy or doesn't continue developing at the same pace.
Schaefer is my, and many scouts', No. 1 prospect in this class. For some scouts, there is a major drop-off to the next-best player. For others, it's close, which I agree with. Misa is not that far off from Schaefer, and I could see a plausible case made for several other forwards.
Schaefer remains the smart choice at No. 1. But it's a calculated gamble — one that demands a real belief in both his talent and the conflicting evidence in his body of work and his continued progression once he's finally playing a full schedule.
(Photo: Dennis Pajot / Getty Images)
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