Prediction of ‘major earthquake' on anniversary of Great San Francisco Earthquake not credible, experts say
SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — A social media account claiming to have the ability to predict earthquakes received more than 70,000 views on a post stating that the Bay Area has a very high chance of a major earthquake striking the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 — the anniversary of the 1906 Great San Francisco Earthquake. Officials reject that claim.
'48 HOUR WARNING – Major earthquake is likely in the San Francisco Bay Area, most likely within 75 miles of Santa Cruz, CA,' the social media post reads. 'You could save lives by warning everyone you know in the San Francisco Bay Area. Don't stay silent — share the warning now.'
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The account went viral earlier this month after posting a similar message stating that a large earthquake would occur in Southern California between April 14 and 16. A 5.2 magnitude earthquake hit the San Diego area on April 14 at approximately 10:08 a.m.
Although a Southern California earthquake aligned with the timing of the prophecy, there is no known way to predict a major earthquake with any immediate accuracy, U.S. Geological Survey spokesperson Steve Sobie told KRON4.
'Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake,' Sobie said. 'We can calculate the probability that one will occur in a specific area within a certain number of years.'
The date and time
The location
The magnitude
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The social media account claiming to predict earthquakes, meanwhile, has posted general earthquake prophecies for years, with overwhelmingly false results. X has provided additional context to the social media account.
'There is no scientific basis for this or any earthquake prediction,' the reader-submitted context added by X reads. 'Quakes are always possible in places like California, but specific forecasts perform no better than random when tested. This user has posted similar claims every few days since 2009.'
Seismologists warn that Bay Area residents should always be prepared for a big earthquake, which can occur at any time. The San Francisco Department of Building Inspection warns residents to prepare for the next earthquake today.
'Earthquakes are unpredictable natural disasters with just as terrible aftereffects,' the San Francisco Department of Building Inspection website states. 'Take the necessary steps today to get your property and family ready for the next emergency. We cannot predict when the next natural disaster will hit, but together we can take the next steps in being prepared.'
Make an emergency plan so you know who to find and where to find them when a crisis occurs.
Make sure you know where and how to shut off the utility services in your home or building.
Anchor bookshelves and other heavy furniture to wall studs.
If you are indoors when an earthquake occurs: drop, cover and hold on. Do not try to run outside or stand in a doorway or near windows.
Whether you are at home or at work, make sure you have an emergency kit with supplies lasting for at least 72 hours.
'Earthquake preparedness should be part of everyday life for people living in California,' Sobe said. 'The Earthquake Country Alliance has good resources to help people prepare, including their Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety.'
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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