India puts Indus Waters Treaty on hold: What it signifies

India Today

23-04-2025

In a bold diplomatic offensive against Pakistan following the deadly terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam on April 22, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has decided to hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 in abeyance with immediate effect.The decision, taken after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting of the country's highest decision-making body on national security, reflected an unprecedented shift in India's strategic posture, as the government declared that the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan "credibly and irreversibly" abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.advertisementWHAT IS INDUS WATERS TREATY?Brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty has long been hailed as a rare instance of sustained cooperation between India and Pakistan. Under the agreement, India was granted exclusive control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan was given rights over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — despite their origins in Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir.
The treaty has endured through wars and diplomatic breakdowns, but the recent attack in Pahalgam, which claimed the lives of security personnel and civilians, appears to have redrawn the lines.The CCS concluded that Pakistan's continued support for terrorism violates the very spirit of the treaty. Rather than a formal withdrawal, India is opting to freeze all treaty-related cooperation — including technical meetings, data sharing, and water flow notifications.HOW WILL IT IMPACT PAKISTAN?advertisementThe decision is poised to have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan. The country is heavily dependent on the Indus River system for its agriculture, which forms the backbone of its economy. Nearly 90% of Pakistan's irrigation depends on water from the Indus basin. Any disruption — or even the perception of future disruption — in water supply from the western rivers could exacerbate water scarcity, reduce crop yields, and fuel domestic unrest, especially in the already water-stressed provinces of Punjab and Sindh.Strategically, India's move is aimed at applying pressure on Pakistan's establishment by converting a long-standing symbol of cooperation into a lever of deterrence. For years, India refrained from linking water diplomacy with terrorism, but the Pahalgam attack seems to have redrawn that line.The message is clear: Cross-border terror will now invite strategic costs. This shift could force Islamabad to reconsider its policy calculus, especially if international support for India's position builds.WHAT CAN PAKISTAN DO?On the international front, Pakistan may seek the World Bank's intervention — the treaty's guarantor. However, India is expected to argue that no country can expect the benefits of a peacetime agreement while actively undermining peace.New Delhi will likely emphasise that abeyance is a temporary suspension, not a breach, and that cooperation can resume once Pakistan takes verifiable steps against terror groups operating from its soil.advertisementDomestically, the CCS decision may put Pakistan's leadership under pressure. The military, which holds significant sway over national security and foreign policy, may be forced to respond with either de-escalation or heightened rhetoric. Civilian political parties, meanwhile, will face increasing pressure from their constituents — especially farmers — to ensure that water flow from India remains uninterrupted.India, meanwhile, is expected to accelerate development on a number of hydroelectric and storage projects along the western rivers — including Pakal Dul, Ratle, Kiru, and Sawalkot — all permissible under the treaty but often delayed due to Pakistani objections.With the treaty in abeyance, India could now proceed without engaging in traditional bilateral consultations.Must Watch