India and Pakistan: The first drone war between nuclear-armed neighbours
The world's first drone war between nuclear-armed neighbours has erupted in South Asia.On Thursday, India accused Pakistan of launching waves of drones and missiles at three military bases in Indian territory and Indian-administered Kashmir - an allegation Islamabad swiftly denied.Pakistan claimed it had shot down 25 Indian drones in recent hours. Delhi remained publicly silent. Experts say the tit-for-tat attacks mark a dangerous new phase in the decades-old rivalry, as both sides exchange not just artillery but unmanned weapons across a volatile border.As Washington and other global powers urge restraint, the region is teetering on the edge of escalation, with drones - silent, remote and deniable - opening a new chapter in the India-Pakistan conflict."The Indo-Pak conflict is moving into a new drone era - one where 'invisible eyes' and unmanned precision may determine escalation or restraint. Thus, in South Asia's contested skies, the side that masters drone warfare won't just see the battlefield - they'll shape it," Jahara Matisek, a professor at the US Naval War College, told the BBC.Since Wednesday morning, Pakistan says Indian air strikes and cross-border fire have killed 36 people and injured 57 more in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. On the other side, India's army reports at least 16 civilians dead from Pakistani shelling. India insists its missile barrage was retaliation for a deadly militant attack on Indian tourists in Pahalgam last month - an attack Islamabad denies any role in.Pakistan's military announced on Thursday that it had shot down 25 Indian drones across various cities, including Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi. The drones - reportedly Israeli-made Harop drones - were reportedly intercepted using both technical and weapon-based countermeasures. India claimed to have neutralised several Pakistani air defence radars and systems, including one in Lahore, which Islamabad denied.
Laser-guided missiles and bombs, drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have become pivotal in modern warfare, significantly enhancing the precision and efficiency of military operations. These can relay co-ordinates for airstrikes or, if equipped, directly laser-designate targets, and help immediate engagement. Drones can be used as decoys or suppression of enemy air defences, flying into contested airspace to trigger enemy radar emissions, which can then be targeted by other munitions like loitering drones or anti-radiation missiles. "This is how Ukraine and Russia both do it in their war. This dual role - targeting and triggering - makes drones a force multiplier in degrading enemy air defences without risking manned aircraft," says Prof Matisek.Experts say India's drone fleet is largely built around Israeli-made reconnaissance UAVs like the IAI Searcher and Heron, along with Harpy and Harop loitering munitions - drones that double as missiles, capable of autonomous reconnaissance and precision strikes. The Harop, in particular, signals a shift toward high-value, precision-targeted warfare, reflecting the growing importance of loitering munitions in modern conflict, experts say.The Heron, say experts, is India's "high-altitude eyes in the sky" for both peacetime monitoring and combat operations. The IAI Searcher Mk II is designed for frontline operations, offering up to 18 hours of endurance, a range of 300km (186 miles), and a service ceiling of 7,000m (23,000ft). While many believe India's combat drone numbers remain "modest", a recent $4bn deal to acquire 31 MQ-9B Predator drones - which can can fly for 40 hours and up to an altitude of 40,000ft - from the US marks a major leap in its strike capabilities. India is also developing swarm drone tactics - deploying large numbers of smaller UAVs to overwhelm and saturate air defences, allowing higher-value assets to penetrate, say experts.Pakistan's drone fleet is "extensive and diverse", comprising both indigenous and imported systems, Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst told the BBC.He said the inventory includes "over a thousand drones", featuring models from China, Turkey and domestic manufacturers. Notable platforms include the Chinese CH-4, the Turkish Bayraktar Akinci, and Pakistan's own Burraq and Shahpar drones. Additionally, Pakistan has developed loitering munitions, enhancing its strike capabilities.
Mr Haider said the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has been actively integrating unmanned systems into its operations for nearly a decade. A key focus is the development of "loyal wingman" drones - unmanned aerial vehicles designed to operate in co-ordination with manned aircraft, he added.Prof Matisek believes "Israel's technical assistance, supplying Harop and Heron drones, has been pivotal for India, while Pakistan's reliance on Turkish and Chinese platforms highlights an ongoing arms race".While the recent drone exchanges between India and Pakistan mark a significant escalation in their rivalry, they differ markedly from the drone-centric warfare observed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, experts say. There, drones become central to military operations, with both sides deploying thousands of UAVs for surveillance, targeting and direct attacks."Deploying drones [in the ongoing conflict] instead of fighter jets or heavy missiles represents a lower-level military option. Drones are less heavily armed than manned aircraft, so in one sense, this is a restrained move. However, if this is merely a prelude to a broader aerial campaign, the calculus changes entirely," Manoj Joshi, an Indian defence analyst, told the BBC."The [India-Pakistan] drone warfare we're witnessing may not last long; it could be just the beginning of a larger conflict."Ejaz Haider believes the recent drone activity in Jammu "appears to be a tactical response to immediate provocations, not a full-scale retaliation [by Pakistan]". "A true retaliatory strike against India would involve shock and awe. It would likely be more comprehensive, involving multiple platforms - both manned and unmanned - and targeting a broader range of objectives. Such an operation would aim to deliver a decisive impact, signalling a significant escalation beyond the current tit-for-tat exchanges," Mr Haider says.
While drones have fundamentally reshaped the battlefield in Ukraine, their role in the India-Pakistan conflict remains more limited and symbolic, say experts. Both countries are using their manned air forces to fire missiles at one another as well."The drone warfare we're witnessing may not last long; it could be just the beginning of a larger conflict," says Mr Joshi."This could either signal a de-escalation or an escalation - both possibilities are on the table. We're at an inflection point; the direction we take from here is uncertain."Clearly India is integrating drones into its precision-strike doctrine, enabling stand-off targeting without crossing borders with manned aircraft. However, this evolution also raises critical questions."Drones lower the political and operational threshold for action, providing options to surveil and strike while trying to reduce escalation risks," says Prof Matisek."But they also create new escalation dynamics: every drone shot down, every radar blinded, becomes a potential flashpoint in this tense environment between two nuclear powers."
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