Without Putin, do Ukraine peace talks in Turkey matter?

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15-05-2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pulled out of direct peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, despite proposing them himself. With his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, still reportedly attending and a US delegation present, the high-level summit marks the first such meeting in three years. But what can we expect after Putin has decided to stay away? read more
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with members of the Delovaya Rossiya (Business Russia) National Public Organisation and participants of the organisation's 20th Congress and Forum via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia May 13, 2025. Sputnik via Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin has opted out of attending a high-stakes summit with Ukraine in Turkey — talks he himself proposed — choosing instead to send a team of senior officials to represent Moscow.
The direct negotiations, scheduled for Thursday in Istanbul, are the first of their kind since March 2022 and were initially seen as a possible inflection point in the over two-year-long war.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump had both expressed openness to participating in person, the absence of both Putin and Trump from the summit has led to lowered expectations for any breakthrough.
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However, the significance of any official dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow after a long hiatus remains.
Why these talks matter
The last known round of direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives occurred in March 2022, shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
Since then, diplomatic channels have mostly closed, with both sides entrenching further on the battlefield and at the international level.
This week's summit in Istanbul would mark the first time in over three years that Russian and Ukrainian officials meet face to face for structured discussions.
Talks were proposed by Putin over the weekend following renewed pressure from Ukraine's Western allies, including Germany, France, Poland, and the United Kingdom, who demanded Russia agree to a 30-day ceasefire or face a fresh wave of severe sanctions.
Putin responded not by accepting the ceasefire, but by offering to restart negotiations without any preconditions. He referred to the failed 2022 talks and suggested that representatives from both nations meet in Istanbul to explore the possibility of 'durable peace.'
In response, Zelenskyy declared his readiness to travel to Turkey to pursue a diplomatic resolution. 'The answers to all questions about this war – why it started, why it continues – all these answers are in Moscow,' he said. 'How the war will end depends on the world.'
Who Putin is sending in his stead
Although Putin initiated the idea of resuming talks, he confirmed late Wednesday that he would not be attending in person . The Kremlin released a list of delegates who would represent Russia at the Istanbul summit, with presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky leading the delegation.
Medinsky, who was born in Soviet Ukraine and previously led the failed 2022 peace talks, is known for his alignment with Putin's historical worldview. He currently chairs the Russian Military Historical Society and played a role in authoring a new patriotic history textbook aligned with Kremlin ideology.
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The rest of the Russian delegation comprises a mix of diplomatic, military, and intelligence figures:
Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Foreign Minister, responsible for Russia's relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Igor Kostyukov, head of Russian military intelligence (GRU), a prominent intelligence agency.
Alexander Fomin, Deputy Defence Minister and a veteran of the 2022 peace negotiations.
Alexander Zorin, a seasoned negotiator who was instrumental in the Syrian civil war efforts and known for reconciling factions.
Yelena Podobreyevskaya, Deputy Head of the Kremlin Directorate for Humanitarian Policy.
Alexei Polishchuk, Director of the Foreign Ministry's CIS Department.
V. Shevtsov, Deputy Head of the Directorate for International Military Cooperation in the Defence Ministry.
Where Zelenskyy stands
Zelenskyy has made it clear that he is only willing to meet directly with Putin, not lower-ranking officials.
Speaking in a video address before his departure to Turkey, Zelenskyy said, 'Ukraine would decide on its steps for peace talks in Turkey once there was clarity on Putin's participation.'
Today we held several meetings with the team regarding the format in Türkiye. I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing.
We also hear that President Trump is… pic.twitter.com/DurxIKaMih — Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 14, 2025
A Ukrainian official stated that Zelenskyy had agreed to the Istanbul meeting specifically in response to the possibility of Putin being present. 'He had said he would take part in the talks only if Putin attended,' the official noted.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio early Thursday to coordinate ahead of the summit. Sybiha shared Zelenskyy's vision for peace and outlined Ukraine's negotiation stance, centred on an immediate 30-day ceasefire.
Zelenskyy had also publicly challenged Putin to join the talks, saying 'if he's not afraid,' in what observers see as an attempt to demonstrate Kyiv's willingness for peace in contrast to Moscow's reluctance.
How Trump is involved
US President Donald Trump had called for a '30-day unconditional ceasefire' and warned of punitive action if his proposal was ignored.
'Trump called for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and threatened sanctions if this was not respected,' one US official stated.
While Trump initially hinted he might personally attend the talks, particularly if Putin confirmed his participation, the White House later confirmed he would not be present. Trump is currently on a three-nation tour of West Asia but indicated he would send a high-level delegation instead.
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Representing the United States in Istanbul are:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Steve Witkoff, senior White House envoy
Keith Kellogg, former National Security Advisor and senior envoy
Trump has publicly expressed frustration with the pace of peace efforts from both Russia and Ukraine.
He has hinted at the potential for 'secondary sanctions' on Russia, including penalties on entities purchasing Russian oil, if Moscow is perceived as obstructing the path to peace.
What the talks may include
While Russia has indicated willingness to resume talks, Kyiv and its allies remain sceptical of Moscow's intentions. The two sides remain fundamentally at odds on key issues, particularly on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
During the 2022 negotiations, Russia reportedly proposed that Ukraine adopt permanent neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from countries including the US, China, the UK, France, and Russia, among others, reported Reuters.
That deal collapsed as Ukrainian forces regained territory and uncovered evidence of atrocities in towns such as Bucha, prompting international outrage.
Kyiv has maintained that Ukrainian neutrality is a red line.
Russia continues to hold significant portions of Ukrainian territory, and has not offered any meaningful concessions. The Kremlin's position, according to analysts, still centers on addressing what it calls the 'root causes' of the war, including Nato expansion and Ukraine's post-Soviet alignment — issues that Ukraine and its Western backers consider non-negotiable.
Meanwhile, Moscow has floated the idea of including a large-scale prisoner exchange as part of the talks. But no specific commitments have been made by either side on that front.
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Though the Istanbul summit may not yield an immediate agreement, its importance lies in reviving direct diplomatic engagement.
The involvement of senior officials on both sides suggests that there may be some progress on procedural matters or temporary arrangements like localised ceasefires or humanitarian corridors.
Nevertheless, the absence of Putin and Trump casts a long shadow over the proceedings. Zelenskyy's expected meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on Thursday may provide further clarity on Ukraine's diplomatic approach moving forward.
Zelenskyy pointed out: 'How the war will end depends on the world.'
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With inputs from agencies