Israel Has a Model for Handling Iran — in Lebanon
Israel is again proving the extraordinary prowess of its security services, both military and intelligence. After four days of air strikes, Iran is already signaling that it wants to resume the nuclear talks it broke off with the US on Sunday.
Yet that makes it all the more important to understand the scope of Israeli ambitions and of the gamble that's being taken; because, depending on how far Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to go, the military success can either serve to promote or distance his goal of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout.
Perhaps the two most striking aspects of Operation Rising Lion have been the depth to which the Israeli intelligence services were able to penetrate the Iranian regime, and the speed with which its air force established air superiority. This has allowed Israeli pilots to range over much of Iran – including its capital – with relative impunity. Iran's long-range ballistic missiles seem a blunt instrument by comparison.
Netanyahu's direct appeals for the people of Iran to rise up against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as some of the bombing targets chosen, suggest that regime change is also among Israeli goals, official denials notwithstanding. Punishment and degrading Iran's military are others.
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Bloomberg
20 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
What Is Israel's Strategy for Iran?
Live on Bloomberg TV CC-Transcript 00:00What is Israel's ultimate strategy here? I think we can know for sure that de-escalation, it's not a strategy that would be considered rather thin gruel as far as the Israelis are concerned, having committed themselves to a very well planned and according to them, very successful so far offensive. So their plans as at the outset, their demands are for an end, whether through their military force or perhaps combined military force for the United States. Time will tell if that will happen or through a negotiated deal, an end to the Iranian nuclear program, an end to the missile program. Netanyahu also added that he described an end to the Iranian reign of terror in the Middle East. He said this an interview last night. That's a bit hard to pass right now, but it would suggest he wants to see a dismantling of its regional connections, especially with groups on Israel's borders, which Israel has been battling for the last 20 months. So Israel has no patience right now for talks for the sake of talks, if they're going to be talks. It wants a conclusive deal. Okay. That's interesting context given given what we're hearing around around potentially US officials getting involved in conversations with their Iranian counterparts. We have lines crossing from CNN right now saying that the US intelligence assessment is that Iran was years away from a nuclear weapon, that they reported by sea and it since the domestic support for this conflict in Israel, where does that stand? Domestic support is very strong. Bloomberg reported yesterday had a first look at what I believe is the first poll issued. Keep in mind that this flare up, it seems a quite long duration. It's only four days old. That poll found strong 70% support across Israelis for this. The one weak points of their support is whether Israel can alone tackle finally Israel's nuclear programs without U.S. support, be it diplomatic or military. Also, Israelis, in the long run, should they suffer thousands of casualties and there have been casualties, but it's not the thousands that would be a third of them that would at that point suggest it's not worth the cost.
News24
21 minutes ago
- News24
Oil climbs after Trump's Tehran warning, Sasol now up 80% since April
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Forbes
29 minutes ago
- Forbes
Dedrone By Axon Provides Insights On Protecting Against Small Drones
Images posted on social media showing Ukrainian drones packaged in containers for shipping (left) ... More and the video feed from the drones as they attack Russian bombers. Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web, which reportedly destroyed a third of Russia's strategic air assets, shifted the paradigm of where the front line exists. Previously, small drones, with their limited range, were used primarily close to the front lines. Meanwhile, key locations farther in the rear were either considered unlikely targets, out of range, or had air-defense systems to protect them against larger drones and missiles. However, as Ukraine demonstrated, small drone technology, coupled with an innovative mindset, can be used to cripple targets that were previously considered immune. Israel reportedly followed suit last week, smuggling small drones into Iran for strikes on Tehran. As such, many countries have taken notice and have started trying to figure out how to protect these targets. While this issue is complex and difficult to solve, Dedrone by Axon, a company that specializes in counter-drone systems, has been trying to tackle this problem for years. Their platforms are used in more than 30 countries, including six of the G7 nations and 17 federal entities, to protect airports, stadiums, correctional facilities, critical infrastructure, corporate campuses, and major events. Ash Alexander-Cooper OBE, a Vice President at Dedrone by Axon and counter-terrorism expert, provided insight into the challenges and what is necessary to solve these problems. Mr. Alexander-Cooper explained that the challenge in protecting against small drones lies in their commercial availability, which makes them an accessible weapon that can be deployed in large quantities. Further, the technology behind these drones continues to evolve rapidly driven by advances in the commercial sector. In turn, this allows users to develop new tactics leveraging increasing levels of autonomy, navigation, and stealth. Social media post from 2022 of a Ukrainian soldier using a Dedrone by Axon system. This rapid evolution of small drone technology creates persistent challenges for counter-drone systems. These defenses are inherently reactive, designed to exploit the vulnerabilities in the latest drone technology. Once fielded, the effectiveness of these systems quickly diminishes as drones are modified or redesigned to evade them. This cycle gives each new generation of drones a window of operational freedom before the next iteration of countermeasures is developed. Additionally, the dynamic evolution of small drone technology has created a diverse fleet, further complicating counter-drone systems. For example, while radio frequency detection might work well for traditional drones, fiber-optic drones emit no signals and require other methods. Meanwhile, radar works well for many of the larger, slower-moving, high-flying drones, but struggles against smaller, faster, low-flying drones. This variety makes it difficult for counter-drone systems to reliably detect and defeat all threats, especially as new drones are constantly being developed to evade existing defenses. While small drones are useful, they inherently have their weaknesses, especially with their payload capacity. This limited payload capacity restricts the amount of explosives that can be carried on the drone. This limited payload also reduces the size of the battery that can be carried, reducing the flight time of the drone and the power of the transmitter on the drone, substantially limiting the range. However, Mr. Alexander-Cooper pointed out, an 'entrepreneurial mindset coupled with bright people thinking outside the box' can overcome these issues. This was demonstrated in Operation Spider's Web, where Ukraine smuggled small drones deep into Russia and then deployed them with precision to maximize their impact. These small drones are clearly a complex problem. According to Mr. Alexander-Cooper, the answer lies in 'a layered defense with multi-sensor fusion.' Since drones vary widely in size, speed, altitude, and signature, relying on a single detection mechanism is inadequate. Detecting the radio frequency signature of a drone is one of the most common techniques and is effective against the majority of commercial systems. Meanwhile, more advanced or hardened drones may operate with reduced or spoofed emissions or avoid emitting radio signals altogether. These threats require detection through alternative means such as electro optical, infrared, radar, or LIDAR. As drones become more advanced, fusing data from multiple sensor types becomes essential to create a comprehensive picture of the airspace without relying on single source reporting. has the ability to integrate a number of different sensors together and provides ... More end-to-end defeat mechanisms for drones. (© Dedrone Inc.) As more sensors enter the mix, there is a growing need for an open architecture that allows new sensors to be quickly integrated into the detection network. This modular plug-and-play approach enables operators to upgrade individual sensors without overhauling the entire system. It also allows the system to be tailored to different operational environments, where specific sensors may be more effective than others depending on the threat landscape. With this increase in sensor diversity comes a rise in computational demands. Managing the data flow from multiple sources and fusing it into a coherent operational picture requires robust processing capability. The key to enabling this fusion lies in artificial intelligence algorithms that can analyze, learn from, and adapt to new types of drones as they are developed. These algorithms must be continuously refined to ensure that the system remains responsive to emerging threats. Once a drone is identified as adversarial, it must be neutralized. Mr. Alexander-Cooper emphasized the importance of counter-drone systems incorporating the full 'end to end defeat chain,' which includes detection, identification, tracking, decision-making, and ultimately defeat. As small drones become more advanced through improvements in computing and autonomy, the time available for counter-drone systems to respond continues to shrink. Michael Dyballa from the company Dedrone demonstrates how a company's premises can be secured ... More against drones in Langen, Germany, 5 July 2017. The German Air Navigation Service (DFS) hosted an event providing information on the uses and dangers of drones. German Telecom co-hosted the event. Photo: Andreas Arnold/dpa (Photo by Andreas Arnold/picture alliance via Getty Images) Just as with detection, tracking and identification, there is no single solution for drone defeat. An effective counter-drone system must offer a range of defeat mechanisms, both kinetic and non-kinetic. This flexibility allows operators to respond in line with mission constraints and rules of engagement. Non-kinetic tools such as radio frequency and GNSS jamming or signal spoofing remain effective against many commercial drones. However, more sophisticated threats are often hardened against jamming and require kinetic solutions such as directed energy weapons, nets, lasers, or mobile interceptors to be neutralized effectively. Over the past decade, there has been an ongoing cat and mouse game between drone and counter-drone technology, which has been accelerated by the Russia-Ukraine War. According to Mr. Alexander-Cooper, the future of counter-drone technology will be shaped by speed. Advances in AI and machine learning are reducing the time systems need to react to the point where counter-drone systems will soon need to operate without humans in the loop. This will become especially important as swarm technology advances, requiring systems to handle multiple simultaneous threats. Mr. Alexander-Cooper also highlighted the paradigm shift following Operation Spider's Web. The number of potential targets has become virtually unlimited, with small drones capable of inflicting significant damage, making it effectively impossible to fully protect all assets. Effective defense will require not only new tools, but integrated systems, rapid data sharing, and a willingness across industry and government to adapt together. The small drone threat is evolving. The response must evolve faster.
