Opinion - Vance and Rubio are auditioning daily for a 2028 audience of one
President Trump sparked what is likely to be a brutal battle for the 2028 Republican nomination during his May 4 interview on 'Meet the Press.' After extinguishing his ongoing 'third-term' tease, Trump name-checked the two leading candidates to succeed him: Vice President JD Vance (as expected) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (very unexpected).
This week, questions about Rubio's own birthright citizenship (neither of his parents was a citizen when he was born in Florida) generated headlines, so watch this developing issue.
Rubio, formerly a third-term U.S. senator from Florida, had been a critical rival of candidate Trump in the 2016 presidential primary. Rubio, whom Trump degradingly taunted as 'Little Marco,' has suddenly morphed into powerful 'Big Marco,' concurrently serving in four separate leadership positions: secretary of State, interim National Security Advisor, acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development and acting archivist for the National Archives and Records Administration.
Trump's recent unleashing of a Vance vs. Rubio rivalry will effectively sustain media interest over the next three years. Once again, the president proves he is a master manipulator of the 24/7 news cycle.
Now, during any Trump-news lull, he can tease a Vance vs. Rubio 'Truth Social' post about the state of their rivalry. He can also inject new possible successors, tease a potential 2028 endorsement or adopt the firm non-endorsement strategy of 'let the MAGA primary voters decide.' This continues his reign as the all-powerful lame-duck kingmaker, while 2028 hopefuls kowtow for his favor.
In any case, expect the GOP presidential primary to be 100 percent Trump-centric, with entangled high-stakes drama and factors at play. Such factors include enshrining Trump's all-important personal and presidential legacy, a potential family dynasty and ensuring the nomination of a 'MAGA movement heir' worthy of that title who could capture 270 electoral votes in Trump's name.
Recognizing and satisfying that checklist is why Trump's 'succession reality show contest' began this month. The president is known to enjoy extended chaos and infighting when he controls the situation.
So who is the nominee most likely to win Trump's 'third term'? This is a rarely achieved consideration for a two-term president. The last time it happened was 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush won a bona fide landslide, reflecting President Ronald Reagan's popularity and a roaring 1980s economy. Then consider that 2028 will mark 40 years since the last time America's fickle, pendulum swinging, polarized electorate has bestowed a 'third term' on the nominee of the incumbent president's party.
For Vance or Rubio to succeed Trump, they will have to separate themselves from his generally unpopular, nontraditional governing style, laden with what some consider authoritarian tendencies. What follows are the known situations and factors to consider — although unknowns will undoubtedly arise.
A Republican loss in the 2026 midterms of the House, Senate or both could change the trajectory of Trump's agenda and affect the next presidential election. Considering the president's 44 percent job approval rating, this week, a Politico headline read: 'Trump Is Already Obsessed With the Midterms.' He should be, since the 2018 midterms resulted in Republicans losing the House, which stymied the last two years of Trump's first-term agenda.
Therefore, expect Vance and Rubio to live on the 2026 campaign trail, intensifying their auditions and trying to impress Trump through crowd size, fundraising and media performances.
If the midterms don't end well for the GOP, how far would Vance and Rubio run from Trump? Or could they even try to distance themselves if the MAGA base still supports Trump and both believe they need his endorsement, even at the risk of losing anti-Trump Republicans and independent voters in the general election?
Conversely, if Team Trump keeps Congress, Vance and Rubio will want to claim some credit. Then listen for the 'I am the best person to win Trump's third term' argument to shift into high gear. The 2028 presidential campaign officially begins the day after the midterms, but the 'money primary' of quietly recruiting major donors and key staff starts now.
It's anyone's guess how long until Vance and Rubio openly become rivals, clawing at each other behind the scenes. Before Trump mentioned Rubio's name on 'Meet the Press,' casting him as a Vance rival, the vice president appeared to be without rival. In many respects, he still is, but he must now work even harder to please Trump and earn his endorsement.
As first in line for the office, Vance holds all the power-player advantages to win the nomination, but is quickly accumulating controversial international baggage. As previously noted, history does not favor him winning the general, but in his favor is Vance's second title — finance chair of the Republican National Committee. He is uniquely positioned there to sway major donors. And, ideally, Trump will want to avoid a long, bloody primary.
However, Vance 2028 is far from a lock. What if the political climate turns cloudy with a 75 percent chance of anti-Trump thunderstorms? Then, an outsider to Trump's orbit like Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) from could capitalize on a public desire to 'turn the page from the Trump era.'
Meanwhile, Rubio dreams of being the first Hispanic president. But if Vance wins the nomination and taps the secretary as his running mate, would he accept? Rubio, born in 1971, still has years until his presidential expiration date, as does 1984-born Vance.
Lurking behind the scenes is Donald Trump Jr. In July 2024, Junior argued that, despite Vance's past anti-Trump statements, he was MAGA's future. He likely still believes that about his friend.
Nonetheless, Republican leaders from outside the Trump administration will voice strong arguments for change if the midterms are unsuccessful.
But for now, it's Team Trump full steam ahead for 2026 — while filtering through the 2028 strainer everything Vance and Rubio do and say. They audition daily as Trump scores who is worthy to be his successor.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Politico
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- Politico
The GOP's latest megabill casualties
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Politico
20 minutes ago
- Politico
Kweisi Mfume is pitching an old-school approach to one of House Democrats' highest-profile jobs
Frustrated by Democrats' seniority system, Kweisi Mfume fled the House three decades ago, saying he could do more to advance civil rights from the outside. Now he's back and trying to reap the benefits of seniority at a moment when many in his party are starting to openly question it. The Baltimore native last month surprised many House colleagues by entering the wide-open race to lead Democrats on the high-profile Oversight Committee, seeking to fill the spot vacated by the sudden death of Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly. Into the void jumped a pair of young, ambitious members — Jasmine Crockett of Texas and Robert Garcia of California — as well as a close Connolly ally, Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts. And then there's Mfume, who at 76 is making no bones about this being the capstone of a long career that included stints leading the Congressional Black Caucus and the NAACP — jobs he took back in the 1990s. 'I started a long time ago when dinosaurs roamed the earth,' Mfume joked in an interview, before describing his old-school approach to legislative relations: 'The first thing you learn is how to count votes, which has never failed me yet,' he said, adding that he would be careful not to alienate colleagues 'by doing something that causes problems for them in their district.' Rather than detail a point-by-point agenda for taking on President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans, Mfume said if elected he'd convene the committee's Democrats to decide a course of action. The party, he said, can only move forward with a 'consensus.' That style stands in sharp contrast to a Democratic base that's itching for more aggressive leadership and a more visible fight with Trump — something the other candidates are clearly heeding: Garcia has tangled with the Justice Department over his criticism of Elon Musk; Crockett has broached the prospect of a Trump impeachment inquiry; and Lynch, as the panel's interim top Democrat, attempted last week to subpoena Musk during a panel hearing. The race also threatens to become a proxy fight for broader questions about age and seniority inside the Democratic Party. House Democrats ousted several aging committee leaders at the end of last Congress as they girded for a fight with the Trump administration — and many in the base were disappointed when Connolly triumphed over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. The winner is poised to lead efforts to investigate and thwart the Trump administration if Democrats can retake the House majority next year — and ride herd on a chaotic panel that in recent months has featured intense personal attacks between lawmakers and the display of nude photos. 'It's a street fight every day,' said Rep. Lateefah Simon of California when asked about the panel and what it takes to lead it. 'It's every single day being able to expose the hypocrisy of this administration and to tell the truth.' There was a time when Mfume would have been a natural choice for such a moment. First elected to Baltimore's City Council at the age of 30, he quickly butted heads with legendary Mayor William Donald Schaefer. After longtime Rep. Parren Mitchell retired, Mfume easily won the seat in 1986 and within a few years become a national figure due to his chairmanship of the CBC. Ascending to that role just as Bill Clinton was elected to the presidency, he became an important power broker, forcing key concessions in Clinton's 1993 budget and pushing the White House to restore ousted Haitian president Jean-Bertrand Aristide to power. He also clashed with Clinton at times, including over his decision to pull the nomination of prominent Black legal scholar Lani Guinier to a top Justice Department post. But after Democrats lost their House majority in 1994 — and Mfume lost a quixotic bid to enter the party leadership — he decided two years later to forgo a long climb up the seniority ladder. He instead took the helm at the Baltimore-based NAACP, a job thought to better harness his skills at organizing and oratory. Former Maryland state Sen. Jill Carter said Mfume has long had the 'it factor' and 'charisma' that matters in politics. When Carter ran against Mfume in his 2020 House comeback bid, she got a reminder of how well her rival was known in the district and beyond: 'When some of my people did exit polling, they got the response, 'Oh, we love Jill but, come on, this is Kweisi.'' What's less clear is whether Mfume's reputation in Baltimore, burnished over 45 years in the public eye, makes him the man for the moment as far as his contemporary House colleagues are concerned. He's not known as a partisan brawler, and he said in the interview he doesn't intend to become one. 'There are always going to be fights and disagreements,' he said. 'It's kind of escalated in the last few years to a level that we haven't seen before. I think the main thing is to moderate and to manage the disagreements, because you're not going to cause any of them to go away. How you manage them and how they are perceived by the overall public is what makes a difference.' Mfume is leaning heavily, in fact, on the style and reputation of the man who filled the 7th District seat for the 24 years in between his House stints — the late Rep. Elijah Cummings, who served as top Democrat and then chair of Oversight during Trump's first term and is still spoken of in reverent terms inside the caucus. Mfume concedes that Cummings might have been the better communicator — he 'had a little more preacher in him than I do' — but said they share a similar lofty approach to politics. Like Cummings, he suggested prescription drug prices might be a committee priority. What Mfume is unlikely to have is the official support of the Congressional Black Caucus, a powerful force in intracaucus politics. With two members in the race — Crockett also belongs — Mfume said he does not expect a formal CBC endorsement after an interview process Wednesday. But he still expected to draw support from the bloc — especially its more senior members. Other factors complicate Mfume's candidacy. One is age: He is a year older than Connolly was when he was elected to lead Oversight Democrats last year. For those who prize seniority, Lynch has actually spent more time on the panel. And his 2004 departure from the NAACP was marred by controversy: The Baltimore Sun reported the executive committee of the group voted not to extend his contract under threat of a sexual harassment lawsuit; the NAACP later paid the woman who complained a $100,000 settlement. Mfume strenuously denied any wrongdoing, but while the episode has not emerged as a major issue in the Oversight race, some Democrats have privately expressed reservations about elevating a leader with personal baggage to potentially lead investigations of Trump. 'There's never been one person to corroborate that one allegation — not one,' Mfume said. About the payment, he said, 'I found out about it, quite frankly, after it happened.' Much of the Democratic Caucus remains undecided ahead of the June 24 secret-ballot vote. Candidates will first go before Democrats' Steering and Policy Committee, which will make a recommendation to the full caucus. 'I think that you have a situation where Mfume and Steve Lynch are getting support from folks who put seniority at top, and maybe the other two candidates would probably lean toward members who are newer, and then you got a whole host of folks that's in the middle. And I think that's where the battle is to see where they fall,' said Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.). One younger member said he was swayed by Mfume's experience. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who is 48 and had weighed his own bid, said that while other candidates were compelling, the Baltimorean had a 'leg up.' 'Kweisi shows me pictures of him with Nelson Mandela,' he said. 'I was like, I'm not going to run against Nelson Mandela's best friend.'
New York Times
20 minutes ago
- New York Times
Texas Governor Will Deploy National Guard to Immigration Protests
Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas said late Tuesday that he would deploy National Guard troops across the state, making him the first governor to do so as protests against the Trump administration's immigration crackdown spread across the United States. Mr. Abbott, a Republican and a vocal supporter of President Trump's immigration agenda, said on social media that he would not tolerate violence as protests are planned in San Antonio on Wednesday. The protests that began in Los Angeles last Friday against federal immigration raids have spread to more than a dozen U.S. cities, including Dallas, Austin, Houston and San Antonio. While many of the protests have been peaceful, police have clashed with demonstrators at some of them. Mr. Trump has threatened to override governors who don't want to send National Guard troops to stop protests, like the president did in California, where he sent nearly 5,000 National Guard troops and Marines over the strong objections of state leaders. That has made California ground zero for Mr. Trump's immigration agenda, which includes ramping up deportations of undocumented immigrants with the help of local law enforcement agencies and, in a rare action, active-duty military forces. Mr. Abbott's announcement said that the Texas National Guard will 'use every tool & strategy to help law enforcement maintain order.' 'Peaceful protest is legal,' he added. 'Harming a person or property is illegal & will lead to arrest.' The announcement did not specify where and when the troops will be deployed. Mr. Abbott's office, the San Antonio Police Department, the Texas National Guard and U.S. Northern Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment. On Monday night, more than a dozen protesters were arrested in Austin during a demonstration at the Texas Capitol in Austin, Mr. Abbott had said. Law enforcement officials used tear gas and pepper ball projectiles, the Texas Department of Public Safety said.
