Opinion - Vance and Rubio are auditioning daily for a 2028 audience of one
President Trump sparked what is likely to be a brutal battle for the 2028 Republican nomination during his May 4 interview on 'Meet the Press.' After extinguishing his ongoing 'third-term' tease, Trump name-checked the two leading candidates to succeed him: Vice President JD Vance (as expected) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (very unexpected).
This week, questions about Rubio's own birthright citizenship (neither of his parents was a citizen when he was born in Florida) generated headlines, so watch this developing issue.
Rubio, formerly a third-term U.S. senator from Florida, had been a critical rival of candidate Trump in the 2016 presidential primary. Rubio, whom Trump degradingly taunted as 'Little Marco,' has suddenly morphed into powerful 'Big Marco,' concurrently serving in four separate leadership positions: secretary of State, interim National Security Advisor, acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development and acting archivist for the National Archives and Records Administration.
Trump's recent unleashing of a Vance vs. Rubio rivalry will effectively sustain media interest over the next three years. Once again, the president proves he is a master manipulator of the 24/7 news cycle.
Now, during any Trump-news lull, he can tease a Vance vs. Rubio 'Truth Social' post about the state of their rivalry. He can also inject new possible successors, tease a potential 2028 endorsement or adopt the firm non-endorsement strategy of 'let the MAGA primary voters decide.' This continues his reign as the all-powerful lame-duck kingmaker, while 2028 hopefuls kowtow for his favor.
In any case, expect the GOP presidential primary to be 100 percent Trump-centric, with entangled high-stakes drama and factors at play. Such factors include enshrining Trump's all-important personal and presidential legacy, a potential family dynasty and ensuring the nomination of a 'MAGA movement heir' worthy of that title who could capture 270 electoral votes in Trump's name.
Recognizing and satisfying that checklist is why Trump's 'succession reality show contest' began this month. The president is known to enjoy extended chaos and infighting when he controls the situation.
So who is the nominee most likely to win Trump's 'third term'? This is a rarely achieved consideration for a two-term president. The last time it happened was 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush won a bona fide landslide, reflecting President Ronald Reagan's popularity and a roaring 1980s economy. Then consider that 2028 will mark 40 years since the last time America's fickle, pendulum swinging, polarized electorate has bestowed a 'third term' on the nominee of the incumbent president's party.
For Vance or Rubio to succeed Trump, they will have to separate themselves from his generally unpopular, nontraditional governing style, laden with what some consider authoritarian tendencies. What follows are the known situations and factors to consider — although unknowns will undoubtedly arise.
A Republican loss in the 2026 midterms of the House, Senate or both could change the trajectory of Trump's agenda and affect the next presidential election. Considering the president's 44 percent job approval rating, this week, a Politico headline read: 'Trump Is Already Obsessed With the Midterms.' He should be, since the 2018 midterms resulted in Republicans losing the House, which stymied the last two years of Trump's first-term agenda.
Therefore, expect Vance and Rubio to live on the 2026 campaign trail, intensifying their auditions and trying to impress Trump through crowd size, fundraising and media performances.
If the midterms don't end well for the GOP, how far would Vance and Rubio run from Trump? Or could they even try to distance themselves if the MAGA base still supports Trump and both believe they need his endorsement, even at the risk of losing anti-Trump Republicans and independent voters in the general election?
Conversely, if Team Trump keeps Congress, Vance and Rubio will want to claim some credit. Then listen for the 'I am the best person to win Trump's third term' argument to shift into high gear. The 2028 presidential campaign officially begins the day after the midterms, but the 'money primary' of quietly recruiting major donors and key staff starts now.
It's anyone's guess how long until Vance and Rubio openly become rivals, clawing at each other behind the scenes. Before Trump mentioned Rubio's name on 'Meet the Press,' casting him as a Vance rival, the vice president appeared to be without rival. In many respects, he still is, but he must now work even harder to please Trump and earn his endorsement.
As first in line for the office, Vance holds all the power-player advantages to win the nomination, but is quickly accumulating controversial international baggage. As previously noted, history does not favor him winning the general, but in his favor is Vance's second title — finance chair of the Republican National Committee. He is uniquely positioned there to sway major donors. And, ideally, Trump will want to avoid a long, bloody primary.
However, Vance 2028 is far from a lock. What if the political climate turns cloudy with a 75 percent chance of anti-Trump thunderstorms? Then, an outsider to Trump's orbit like Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) from could capitalize on a public desire to 'turn the page from the Trump era.'
Meanwhile, Rubio dreams of being the first Hispanic president. But if Vance wins the nomination and taps the secretary as his running mate, would he accept? Rubio, born in 1971, still has years until his presidential expiration date, as does 1984-born Vance.
Lurking behind the scenes is Donald Trump Jr. In July 2024, Junior argued that, despite Vance's past anti-Trump statements, he was MAGA's future. He likely still believes that about his friend.
Nonetheless, Republican leaders from outside the Trump administration will voice strong arguments for change if the midterms are unsuccessful.
But for now, it's Team Trump full steam ahead for 2026 — while filtering through the 2028 strainer everything Vance and Rubio do and say. They audition daily as Trump scores who is worthy to be his successor.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNBC
29 minutes ago
- CNBC
China and U.S. trade officials to hold talks in London
U.S. President Donald Trump's top trade officials are meeting their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday for talks aimed at resolving an ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are representing the U.S. China's foreign ministry said on Saturday that Vice Premier He Lifeng, Beijing's lead trade negotiator, will be in the U.K. between June 8-13, and that a meeting of the "China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism" would take place. The talks come after Trump last week said that he had held a lengthy phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping as both look to avert a full-blown trade war. Diplomatic efforts by both sides have ramped up after weeks of heightened trade tension and uncertainty after Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on China and other trading partners in April. Beijing retaliated, and a tit-for-tat escalation in duties ensued before both sides agreed in Geneva in May to temporarily slash duties and facilitate talks. At the time, the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports was cut from 145% to 30% , while China's levies on U.S. imports were lowered from 125% to 10%. China and the U.S. have since repeatedly accused each other of violating the Geneva agreement, with Washington saying Beijing was slow to approve the export of additional critical minerals to the U.S., while China criticized the U.S. imposing new restrictions on Chinese student visas and additional export restrictions on chips. U.S. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Sunday said that the London talks would focus on moving forward with the Geneva agreement, noting the two sides' strategic interests in each other's markets.
Yahoo
41 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's Endless Flip-Flops Reveal His Recklessness
THERE'S NO ESCAPING the pattern in this run of recent headlines: 'Trump reverses plan to close more than 30 mine safety offices' 'Here are the 22 times he's changed his mind on tariffs' 'Trump reverses USDA office closures' 'Reversing on layoffs, National Weather Service adding staff' Plus, this whole set: 'Trump turns sharply on Musk'; 'Trump threatens to cut Musk's government contracts'; 'Trump, White House aides signal a possible détente with Musk'; 'Trump tells CNN he's 'not even thinking about' Musk and won't speak to him 'for a while'; 'Trump wants to get rid of the Tesla he bought to show support for Elon Musk.' That was all in less than a week, and telescoped to just 48 hours for the Trump-Musk blowup-détente-never-mind cycle. This is the bris you never wanted to attend, the circumcision you would never be able to unsee. And don't blame me for that metaphor, blame John Oliver. In late April, the Last Week Tonight host worked himself into a hilarious (and entirely warranted) frenzy over Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s mass destruction of the Department of Health and Human Services. Asked about various program cuts on CBS, RFK Jr.'s answered with variations on 'I didn't know that, that's something that we'll look at.' After the fact. Because weighing programs and people on the merits beforehand 'takes too long and you lose political momentum,' the nation's top public health official said. Oliver's take: 'The health secretary should not be learning what he just did like some guy at a bachelor party being told what happened the night before. 'Do you not remember, bro? You spoke French well, then you pissed on a grave, fucked a bike rack, and cut $750,000 of research money for kid diabetes! You went wild!'' A photo of a mohel about to circumcise a baby boy then shows up onscreen. 'The rules for restructuring HHS should be the same as the ones for a bris!' Oliver almost shouts, his arms pumping, his voice rising, his eyes practically popping out of his head. 'It is crucially important to know exactly what you are cutting! Speed is just not the most important thing!' Or, as any seamstress or carpenter would tell you, measure twice, cut once. Join now EVEN BEFORE MUSK BRANDISHED a chainsaw, moved fast and broke much of the government, no one paying even an iota of attention would have expected Trump to be a model (mohel?) of careful consistency. Still, the speed and significance of the reversals has been shocking, and they appear to be standard operating procedure. In other words, we can expect them to continue until Trump exits the White House, whenever that is. One of the first and worst moments came when the Department of Energy discovered it had fired hundreds at the agency that oversees the nuclear weapons stockpile. Oops. And then had trouble finding them to hire them back. Oops again. Cancel foreign student visas? Require in-person Social Security visits? Fire a thousand National Park Service workers? Close more than thirty mine safety offices? Offload seven thousand Internal Revenue Service workers, hobbling its ability to collect taxes? Never mind times five. Court orders played a role in some of these reversals, but many others arose from delusional thinking (about phone fraud running rampant at Social Security, though there was hardly any) or magical thinking (as in, who needs nuclear stockpile safety overseers, or rangers at national parks that fuel local economies, or the people who know how to make sure taxes owed are taxes paid). The breaking point for me was an NPR story (yes, the NPR that's currently on Trump's chopping block) about the National Weather Service. Who knew we needed to know the weather? Not the DOGE crew. Who knew America has a hurricane season? Possibly not the nation's disaster aid chief. Who assumed AI would save the day, not realizing that AI can't function without the data produced by the federal government and its actual human employees? Apparently not Musk's tech bros. Who knew that Americans might want or need weather information outside of business hours? And really, who could have predicted that the NWS would now be hiring to fill in gaps left when five hundred people were fired? Or that many of the applicants will probably be fired probationary employees reapplying for their old jobs? That's what a union official told NPR. I've gotten this far without mentioning TACO, the Trump Always Chickens Out acronym that Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined to describe investment strategy amid Trump's constant tariff flip-flops. Trump hates the phrase, but if the flip-flop fits. . . And it does. Very well. Share TO LONGTIME POLITICAL OBSERVERS, by which I mean those of us so old we remember pre-MAGA times, it seems strange that the constant flip-flops have not ruined, scarred, or even dented Trump. Nothing has, and nothing probably will, as we've seen all too often. In this case, maybe it's because everyone already knows he's so deeply flawed, or because his decisions are so terrible that flipping in a different direction is all to the good. Especially if you're a savvy financial player who buys low every time a Trump-made disaster strikes. Because, TACO. My context here is the 2004 John Kerry presidential campaign, which I covered as a reporter on his bus and plane. Maybe it was a simpler time, or maybe Republicans were simply ruthless in driving home a message, but one unfortunate turn of phrase turned Kerry—a combat veteran—into a 'flip-flopper' who didn't support the troops. It was truly a doozy of a sentence, the classic 'I voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it.' 'I had one of those inarticulate moments,' Kerry said. He tried to explain. He wanted the expenditure funded at least in part by rolling back some of George W. Bush's tax cuts. But the phrase conveyed weakness and dithering, and Team Bush made sure it stuck. They even sold Kerry flip-flops at the Republican convention that year. The National Museum of American History owns a pair as part of its collection: It's a safe bet that those anti-Kerry flip-flop shoes will survive the coming cultural culling as Trump tries to remake the Smithsonian museums in the image of MAGA and himself. It's also a safe bet that the museum won't be adding Trump flip-flops in future years. It would be too exhausting to create souvenir flip-flops for every Trump flip-flop—and you'd need an entire museum to house them all. Share this article with a friend or family member, or post it to social media: Share
Yahoo
43 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Florida farmers now plowing over perfectly good tomatoes as Trump's tariff policies cause prices to plummet
Tony DiMare's family owns 4,000 acres of tomato farms across Florida and California. Sadly, his Florida crops are not looking good — mowed over and left to rot, like tomato vines across the state. But it's not growing conditions that are the problem. It's economic ones. Don't miss Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's how I'm 49 years old and have nothing saved for retirement — what should I do? Don't panic. Here are 6 of the easiest ways you can catch up (and fast) DiMare told WSVN 7 Miami that President Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies are driving farmers to abandon their crops. In January, he warned that Trump's crackdown on migrants would squeeze farmers, who rely on migrants to pick produce. 'We have to secure our borders south and north, but you have to have a workforce in this country,' he told the Financial Post. Deportations devastate farm workforce About 50% of farm workers in the U.S. are undocumented migrants — including skilled supervisors and machine operators — according to Farmonaut, a farm technology company. As the Trump administration proceeds with mass deportations of undocumented migrants, there are far fewer pickers in the fields, and crops are left to go bad. One spoke to WSVN about fellow migrants leaving Florida each day. He spoke on condition of anonymity, concerned he might be deported himself "A lot of people are really afraid, and sometimes they come, sometimes they don't come,' he said. 'And the harvest is lost because it cannot be harvested.' The labor shortage also means Florida farmers have to pay more for labor. At the same time, they're getting less money for their produce due to Trump's tariff policies. Tariffs upset traditional supply chain From January through April, Trump's threatened tariffs triggered Mexican suppliers to double or even triple tomato exports to the U.S. — before tariffs went into effect. The result? The U.S. market was flooded with Mexican tomatoes. Florida farmers saw the wholesale price of a box of tomatoes plummet from $16 per box to $3 or $4. DiMare said tomato farmers need around $10 or $11 per box to break even. 'You can't even afford to pick them right now,' said Heather Moehling, president of the Miami-Dade County Farm Bureau. 'Between the cost of the labor and the inputs that goes in, it's more cost-effective for the farmers to just plow them right now.' It's not just Florida tomato growers feeling the pinch. Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. watermelons in retaliation for Trump's tariffs on Canadian products. DiMare knows one watermelon grower who's lost Canadian customers to Mexican watermelon suppliers as a result. Prepare for higher food costs Farmonaut notes that the impacts of tariffs and immigration policy on farmers will have a knock-on effect in grocery stores. If U.S. farmers don't have enough workers to harvest crops, Americans will have to buy more imported produce, and pay more due to tariffs. The Food Policy Center at Hunter College of New York City warns that the resulting surge in food prices will drive inflation — 'stressing household budgets across the nation, and particularly hurting families in areas with high food insecurity." While farmers have few options but to hope the political upheaval will end, consumers should prepare to mitigate those costs. One way to do that is to buy a membership in a Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) organization. You'll be supporting local farmers and getting local, less costly produce delivered to your door. In addition to shopping frugally by clipping coupons and shopping sales flyers deals, you can get creative in the kitchen. For example, you can limit food costs by planning weekly menus around seasonal and affordable foods. What to read next Like what you read? Join 200,000+ readers and get the best of Moneywise straight to your inbox every week. Subscribe for free.
