How USMNT's World Cup run-up, global ranking compares to past hosts

New York Times

16 hours ago

When Mauricio Pochettino was hired to coach the U.S. men's national team in September 2024, the federation amplified their shared 'belief that U.S. Soccer is on the cusp of something truly special.' Over the past week, however, his squad couldn't even handle a Turkey and Swiss.
A year away from the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico and sandwiched in between two regional competitions, the USMNT hardly looks ready. Pochettino's side followed an embarrassing fourth-place showing at the Nations League with a pair of consecutive friendly losses. The latest, a 4-0 thrashing against Switzerland – with all goals coming in the first 36 minutes – provides little optimism about the looming Concacaf Gold Cup, to say nothing of the sport's grandest tournament.
How much of an outlier is this brutal run-up to hosting the World Cup? To understand how the USMNT compares to past hosts, let's look back at every one since the U.S. last hosted the men's World Cup in 1994. To look at how a team improved or regressed, we'll use the Elo Ratings system. While FIFA's rankings are pushed the hardest and even used for competition draws, the formula has changed often and still seems unreflective of recent form. The Elo model uses head-to-head results to award points to teams after every game, with the score fully transparent and ranked among every other national team in the world.
The Elo Rating also considers the stakes of a game, where competitive games will impact a team's rating to a more outsized extent than a friendly. For example, one-goal defeats to Panama and Canada in March's Concacaf Nations League have more sway over the U.S.'s Elo Rating than Tuesday's loss to Switzerland or January's 3-1 win over Venezuela.
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Over the course of six games in 2025, the model assesses Pochettino's side to be in freefall. After rising to 28th globally at the end of the January window, four straight defeats have sunk the U.S. to 45th — its lowest ranking since 1997. That feels a bit more honest than FIFA's latest rankings, which has the USMNT 16th in the world as of April 3.
The other 2026 cohosts have only seen slight changes to their ranking since the start of 2025. Mexico has risen eight spots, from 32nd to 24th, while Canada has taken a slight dip from 26th to 29th. At the start of the year, the USMNT was nestled between their regional rivals; now, faltering form has placed the U.S. well behind the pack.
Using Elo, we hope to answer a simple question: did the games host nations played in the 18 months preceding their World Cup leave them in better or worse position in the global landscape?
Elo Rating on January 1, 1993: 32nd (1688)
For the first half of 1993, the hosts (who had qualified outright in 1990) slumped through 14 friendlies. Most notable was a 3-1 defeat at then-74th ranked Japan, while the program notched credible draws against Denmark and Russia on home soil.
Then came the U.S. Cup, a short-lived round robin tournament providing stout competition: Brazil, England and Germany. While the United States lost its opener to Brazil and lost a 4-3 slugfest against Germany, the middle match was an undeniable highlight. The USMNT beat England 2-0 in Foxborough, with Thomas Dooley and Alexi Lalas scoring. England, which entered the match ranked ninth, ultimately failed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup.
The USMNT fell back to earth immediately after, taking one point from its Copa América group. A month later, it finished as runner-up to Mexico in the 1993 Gold Cup, sinking to 55th at year's end after some more worrying friendlies. 1994 began in the same vein, with friendlies ranging from wins over Norway and Mexico to defeats against Sweden, Iceland and Chile.
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Pre-tournament record: 13-19-17 (1.18 ppg)
Elo Rating before 1994 World Cup: 58th (1605); -26 ranks
No match from this 18-month stretch carried as much weight, in the Elo ratings and in real life, as the U.S.'s 2-1 win over Colombia. The infamous result that ultimately cost Andrés Escobar his life helped the USMNT advance from its group, coupled with an opening-match draw against Switzerland. Ultimately, the hosts fell in the round of 16 to eventual champion Brazil.
Elo Rating after 1994 World Cup: 49th (1627)
Trend: -17 ranks, -61 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 1997: 3rd (2017)
This is where the difference between the nascent early 1990s USMNT and the well-established nature of Les Bleus becomes starkly pronounced. While the U.S. needed to enter and host any tournament it could to whip itself into readiness, France kept a fairly lean datebook during its run-up, playing just 15 games compared to its hosting predecessor's 49.
France spent the entirety of its prep ranked either third or fourth in the Elo Ratings, averaging roughly one friendly a month against mostly European opposition. A win against Spain was quickly nullified by a defeat in Russia. In a hosted friendly tournament akin to the U.S. Cup, France struggled, drawing with Brazil and Italy but losing to England. Its final window gave cause for concern: a narrow victory over Belgium (20th), a draw against Morocco (31st) and a slim win at Finland (68th) were hardly befitting of a World Cup contender.
In hindsight, the close calls allowed the team to coalesce ahead of the occasion. After all, youngsters Patrick Vieira, Thierry Henry and David Trezeguet entered the tournament with just 14 combined international caps.
Pre-tournament record: 8-5-2 (1.93 ppg)
Elo Rating before 1998 World Cup: 4th (2004); -1 rank
France snapped out of its pre-tournament sleepwalk in a hurry, claiming all nine points on offer from a thin Group C despite Zinedine Zidane being sent off in its second group match. Its path through the knockout bracket was also unconvincing in moments: narrowly overcoming Paraguay in the round of 16, needing a shootout to see out Italy in the quarterfinal and pipping Croatia 2-1 in the semifinal.
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Ultimately, Davor Šuker's goal was the only one France would concede after the group stage. The tale of the 1998 final is largely told through a Brazilian's vantage point, as Ronaldo's pre-match convulsive fit led to Mário Zagallo removing him from his lineup before reinstating him just 45 minutes before kickoff. The striker looked like a shell of himself, while a Zidane brace and a last-minute celebrator from Emmanuel Petit ensured the World Cup trophy remained in France.
Elo Rating after 1998 World Cup: 1st (2090); +3 ranks
Trend from start: +2 ranks, +73 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 2001: 21st (1797)
One of two nations to serve as the first co-hosts in tournament history, Japan also benefitted from the Confederations Cup no longer being a Saudi Arabian-organized standalone. Instead, this was the first installment where it served as a dress rehearsal for hosts a year out from the World Cup, providing meaningful matches in venues that would become familiar to a global audience the following summer.
Japan won its group, beating Canada and Cameroon before playing Brazil to a scoreless draw. Japan then beat Australia 1-0 in the semifinal before falling to France in the final by an identical scoreline. It was the undeniable high point of the build-up period, which otherwise saw a smattering of friendlies on either side of the Confederations Cup.
Pre-tournament record: 8-6-5 (1.58 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2002 World Cup: 15th (1850); +6 ranks
As with the previous summer, Japan won its group after drawing with Belgium and beating Russia and Tunisia. The good luck ended once the knockout bracket took shape, however, as Japan stared down Turkey in the round of 16.
History remembers this Turkey side as one of the great knockout grinders in World Cup history. Japan ultimately fell 1-0, with Ümit Davala scoring the lone goal in the 12th minute. Turkey went on to finish third in the tournament, notching another 1-0 win in the quarterfinal. As such, Japan finished this stretch in a near-identical standing to where it began at the start of 2001.
Elo Rating after 2002 World Cup: 20th (1827)
Trend from start: +1 rank, +30 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 2001: 25th (1765)
Another beneficiary of the Confederations Cup, South Korea didn't fare nearly as well as its co-host. A 5-0 defeat in its opener against France left the team at a severe disadvantage. While it did well to beat Mexico and Australia in its final group games, the blowout saw South Korea finish third in Group A, eliminated on goal difference.
Like Japan, South Korea flanked its Confederations Cup appearance with friendlies. Wins over Croatia and the U.S. served as highpoints, while it suffered another 5-0 defeat shortly after the Confederations Cup, this time against Czech Republic. Unlike its co-hosts, however, South Korea participated in the 2002 Concacaf Gold Cup (held in January and February), hoping to bolster its preparations. The guests held their own, losing to the USMNT in the group but beating Mexico on penalties in the quarterfinal. Ultimately, they lost to eventual runner-up Costa Rica in a 3-1 semifinal before Canada beat them in the consolation game — the two most consequential results from this stretch according to the Elo Ratings.
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Pre-tournament record: 11-11-9 (1.42 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2002 World Cup: 34th (1736); -9 ranks
It was South Korea who fared better among the co-hosts. It kicked off its tournament with a 2-0 win over Poland, but a draw against the USMNT left Korean hopes of advancing in the balance entering the final game against Portugal. The visiting favorites did themselves no favors, as João Pinto drew a 29th-minute red card for sliding through the back of Park Ji-sung. Still a few years ahead of his move to Manchester United, Park scored the match-winner in the second half to vault South Korea to its knockout bracket in World Cup history – and famously send the U.S. through in the process.
History hasn't been entirely favorable to the ensuing semifinal run. Francesco Totti was sent off in the round of 16 on a controversial call, while Spanish media still believe that then-FIFA executive Jack Warner rigged the quarterfinals by giving the cohosts a favorable referee assignment. No matter: after beating Italy on a golden goal, South Korea toppled Spain in PKs, only to have a storybook run ending with a 1-0 semifinal defeat to Germany.
Elo Rating after 2002 World Cup: 27th (1782)
Trend from start: -2 ranks, +17 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 2005: 12th (1883)
Jurgen Klinsmann had his work cut out for him ahead of Germany's hosting duties, having to fold in a rising generation (including Bastian Schweinsteiger, Per Mertesacker and Lukas Podolski) into the established core led by Oliver Kahn, Michael Ballack and Miroslav Klose. Controversially, Klinsmann took the captain's armband off of Kahn and thrust him into a goalkeeper competition with Jens Lehmann, unsettling the program's mainstays.
The group made an unconvincing case at its Confederations Cup: wins against Australia, Tunisia and Mexico were overshadowed by a draw against Argentina and a 3-2 defeat to Brazil in a rematch of the 2002 final. Its preparations closed out with some concerning results, namely losses in Slovakia and Turkey.
Italy logged a 4-1 win over Germany three months before the tournament, leaving many to wonder if Klinsmann was cut out for international management as the FIFA rankings placed the hosts 22nd. The Elo Ratings' head-to-head model liked them much more than that, though, positioning them 10th entering the 2006 World Cup.
Pre-tournament record: 10-5-4 (1.84 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2006 World Cup: 10th (1913); +2 ranks
Germany left no bones about its group, beating Costa Rica, Poland and Ecuador by a combined 8-2 scoreline. A Podolski brace inside 12 minutes sprung the hosts to an early lead in the round of 16 against Sweden, seeing out that scoreline to book a date with pre-tournament favorite Argentina in the quarterfinal. Lehmann backed his coach's trust with some shootout heroics, working off research notes tucked in his sock before making two saves to send Germany to the semis.
The hosts played Italy hard in the semifinal, forcing extra time and keeping the contest scoreless for 118 minutes. Seemingly, Lehmann would have another chance to unfurl paper from his hosiery. Instead, Italy left back Fabio Grosso broke the stalemate in the 119th minute, with Alessandro Del Piero finishing the job two minutes later.
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Germany went on to beat Portugal in the third place game, while Italy beat France after Zidane's infamous headbutt. Klinsmann would ride the coattails of this performance into several jobs over the years, most notably leading the U.S. from 2011-2017 before being sacked in the middle of its only World Cup qualification failure since 1986.
Elo Rating after 2006 World Cup: 8th (1955)
Trend from start: +4 ranks, +72 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 2009: 75th (1534)
Even compared to the plucky USMNT of 1994, no previous World Cup host was a clearer underdog who would've otherwise struggled to qualify than South Africa. Bafana Bafana made the field in 1998 and 2002, but was still in a rebuilding phase as 2009 kicked off. The guarantee of meaningful games provided ample opportunity for growth, between tournament hopefuls like Chile and Serbia wanting to pay the hosts a friendly visit and the Confederations Cup fielding top opponents.
South Africa advanced from its Confederations Cup group after beating New Zealand and drawing with Iraq and falling against Spain. It lost to Brazil 1-0 in the semis and 3-2 in a consolation rematch against a Spain side reeling from its shocking defeat to the USMNT. The three losses began a six-match skid in the summer and fall of 2009, followed by friendly losses against Serbia, Germany and Ireland.
Equally surprising was the struggle at the 2009 COSAFA Cup in Zimbabwe, with South Africa finishing fourth among 13 teams from the Southern part of Africa. The New Zealand win was its most impactful result of the build-up, followed by friendly victories over Norway, Jamaica and Colombia.
Pre-tournament record: 14-8-12 (1.56 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2010 World Cup: 63rd (1594); +12 ranks
While the tournament opener from Siphiwe Tshabalala was an instant classic, South Africa suffered from receiving an unusually tough draw for a host. Mexico leveled late in that opening match, and Uruguay thrashed them 3-0 in Pretoria. South Africa sprung one last surprise by toppling a rudderless France 2-1 in the finale, but a -2 goal differential saw the hosts go out in a tie-breaker with Mexico.
Then again, the 63rd-best team in the world seldom advances from a World Cup group.
Elo Rating after 2010 World Cup: 54th (1619)
Trend from start: +21 ranks, +85 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 2013: 2nd (2051)
Twelve years after Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Kaká won Brazil's fifth World Cup, Neymar seemed poised to lead his nation to a record-extending sixth. Brazil stayed in the top three of the Elo Ratings throughout its run-up, although the defensive cracks that doomed the Seleção in the tournament were visible ahead of time.
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Brazil opened 2013 with a 2-1 friendly loss to England at Wembley, then drew four of its next five games against Italy, Russia, Chile and England again. Pressure was building ahead of the Confederations Cup, but a perfect nine-point group stage against Japan, Mexico and Italy returned Brazil to the ascendency. The hosts ultimately won the tune-up tournament final against Spain, winning six of seven games to close 2013 in pole position.
Their 2014 schedule was quite lean: a 5-0 win in South Africa, and a pair of wins against Panama and Serbia immediately before the group stage kicked off. What could possibly go wrong?
Pre-tournament record: 16-4-2 (2.36 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2014 World Cup: 1st (2038); +1 rank
First, the good: Brazil won its group with Mexico, Croatia and Cameroon and weathered a round-of-16 test by eliminating Chile in PKs. Their 2-1 win in the quarterfinal over Colombia was marred by Neymar exiting on a stretcher after taking a knee to his back, ruling him out for the competition.
You know what came next. With Neymar injured and Thiago Silva suspended, Brazil was a shell of itself in a 7-1 scoreline that is among the most famous (or infamous, depending on your slant) results in history. That Germany went on to win the final provided no consolation. It's a loss from which Brazil has seemingly never recovered.
Elo Rating after 2014 World Cup: 7th (1980)
Trend from start: -5 ranks, -71 points
Elo Rating on January 1, 2017: 39th (1691)
Rather than play a balanced schedule of home and away matches, as most hosts before had done, Russia played all but two games at home, working to foster a staunch advantage when the tournament rolled around.
While friendly results were uneven as the Russians invited likely qualifiers like Brazil, Spain and Argentina, their Confederations Cup was arguably even more worrisome. After dispatching New Zealand 2-0 in the opener, losses against Portugal and Mexico saw Russia be the second Confederations Cup host to fall in the group stage.
While Russia notched a 4-2 win in its first friendly after that, it failed to win any of the ensuing seven friendlies before the World Cup.
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Pre-tournament record: 2-5-8 (0.73 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2018 World Cup: 44th (1678); -5 ranks
Leaning into the feverish fan-created atmospheres, Russia shocked everyone by holding its own. Wins over Saudi Arabia and Egypt were enough to advance from their group despite a loss to Uruguay. Russia labored to force penalty shootouts in its two knockout games, beating Spain in the round of 16 before falling to eventual runner-up Croatia in the quarterfinal.
Elo Rating after 2018 World Cup: 38th (1721)
Trend from start: +1 rank, +30 points
Elo Rating on June 1, 2021: 47th (1646)
Qatar didn't follow Russia's lead and instead took a page from South Korea's book by looking for additional tournaments. With AFC combining qualification for the World Cup and Asian Cup in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, Qatar got meaningful games against regional rivals before accepting an invitation into the 2021 Concacaf Gold Cup. A group win over Honduras and a quarterfinal triumph over El Salvador more than made up for a semifinal loss against the USMNT.
In the first run-up without a Confederations Cup since 1998 after FIFA folded the tournament, Qatar hosted the 2021 Arab Cup as a test event. Qatar finished third, winning four games before losing to Algeria and beating Egypt on penalties in a third place game. 2022 featured many friendlies against lower-ranked opponents, with a 2-1 win over Panama (in Spain) being the standout result.
Pre-tournament record: 16-7-8 (1.77 ppg)
Elo Rating before 2022 World Cup: 48th (1680); -1 rank
Qatar went on to make history in 2022, just not how it had intended. It became the first World Cup host to exit a group stage without netting a single point. Its draw was tough, with matches against Netherlands, Senegal and Ecuador.
Elo Rating after 2022 World Cup: 65th (1578)
Trend from start: -18 ranks, -68 points
1. South Africa, 2010: +12 ranks
2. Japan, 2002: +6 ranks
3. Germany, 2006: +2 ranks
4. Brazil, 2014: +1 rank
5. France, 1998: -1 rank
6. Qatar, 2022: -1 rank
7. Russia, 2018: -5 ranks
8. South Korea, 2002: -9 ranks
9. United States, 1994: -26 ranks
1. South Africa, 2010: +21 ranks
2. Germany, 2006: +4 ranks
3. France, 1998: +2 ranks
T-4. Japan, 2002: +1 rank
T-4. Russia, 2018: +1 rank
6. South Korea, 2002: -2 ranks
7. Brazil, 2014: -5 ranks
8. United States, 1994: -17 ranks
9. Qatar, 2022: -18 ranks