Former housing minister didn't consult officials on 40k forecast
Former Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien did not consult with his officials prior to telling coalition leaders 40,000 new homes would be built in 2024.
This is despite officials advising him days earlier that the 'most accurate' forecaster was predicting between 30,000 and 33,000 new homes.
Extra.ie previously revealed that Mr O'Brien wrote to the three then-coalition leaders – Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Simon Harris and Green Party leader Roderic O'Gorman – on August 21 last year, stating he expected delivery close to 40,000. Former Minister for Housing Darragh O'Brien. Pic: Sasko Lazarov/RollingNews.ie
'Estimates from independent analysts show we are on track to exceed our housing targets for 2024, and I estimate we will approach 40,000 units in 2024,' Mr O'Brien wrote.
The letter was the basis for the Government's election promise that 40,000 new homes would be built last year.
However, figures from the Central Statistics Office published in January showed that just 30,330 new homes were built.
In response to a Freedom of Information request, the Department of Housing said it had 'no records' of any correspondence between Mr O'Brien and his senior officials prior to the minister penning the letter.
The records also show there were no draft versions of the letter. Former Minister for Housing Darragh O'Brien. Pic: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Asked if there was any verbal discussion about the letter, a spokesman for the department confirmed that officials had no input into it.
He added: 'The minister's correspondence with the coalition leaders in August reflected his expectation of delivery in 2024.
'Department officials did not advise or engage with the minister on the matter of this correspondence.'
Mr O'Brien's officials advised him days before he wrote the letter to coalition leaders that a firm that had been the most accurate at predicting housing output had forecast that between 30,000 and 33,000 homes would be complete, The Irish Times previously reported.
Officials had compiled a list of ten completion forecasts by independent experts. There were three references to 40,000, but the average of the predictions amounted to 36,200. BNP Paribas. Pic: Getty Images
Housing sales website Daft.ie projected between 35,000 and 40,000, while estate agents Hooke & MacDonald and Deutsche Numis, the research arm of Deutsche Bank, both predicted 40,000.
However, Mr O'Brien's officials drew attention to the forecast of French bank BNP Paribas, which had forecast that between 30,000 and 33,000 new homes would be built last year.
'Notably, BNP Paribas forecasts have been the most accurate in recent years, and they suggest reaching the target this year will be challenging,' they wrote.
In February, Mr Harris told RTÉ's Today With Claire Byrne that the figure should not have been provided to him and the other coalition leaders at the time.
The Fine Gael leader refuted claims he and his Government colleagues 'misled the public' as he said he did not know the information he received in 'good faith' was inaccurate. Simon Harris. Pic: Pool Via RollingNews.ie
Asked if the figure should have been provided, Mr Harris agreed, 'they should have given the figure'.
Sinn Féin housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin was not surprised Mr O'Brien acted alone in telling the leaders 40,000 homes would be built, but said it shouldn't have been repeated during the election.
'I am not at all surprised by the revelation as Darragh O'Brien's time as Minister for Housing was characterised by a slipshod and dishonest approach to data designed more to mislead than to inform,' he said.
'However, Micheál Martin, Simon Harris, Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers continued to repeat the minister's 40,000 homes lie long after their own advisers and CSO data made clear it wasn't possible.
'So Darragh O'Brien may have been guilty of the original sin, but the sin was repeated ad nauseam right up to polling day.' Pic: Shutterstock
Apart from failing on the overall delivery aims, the Government also missed its targets for social and affordable housing.
A total of 9,300 new-build social homes were targeted under the Government's Housing For All plan.
These are homes directly built by local authorities or approved housing bodies (AHBs). However, the figures show that just 7,871 were delivered, a shortfall of 1,429 (15%). This is lower than in 2023, when 8,110 new-build social homes were built.
This means that the government has missed its target for the delivery of new-build social homes in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024.
The Government had set a target of 2,130 homes to be leased for social housing, but delivered just 1,223, a 43% shortfall. When the figures were published, current Housing Minister James Browne included homes that have not yet been built or acquired by the State in affordable housing.
Mr Browne claimed '7,126 affordable housing options were delivered' in 2024, 726 ahead of the target. An analysis of the figures shows this includes 2,851 homes delivered under the Government's First Home Scheme.
However, a footnote in the data states that the figures include 'approvals' to the scheme by the end of 2024 and not drawdowns, purchases or actual new builds under the scheme.
The one area where the Government hit its target was in relation to social acquisition, with 1,501 homes achieved, one ahead of the target. These are existing homes bought by local authorities or AHBs.
Latest homelessness figures published show there were 15,418 people living in emergency accommodation in Ireland, including 4,653 children, at the end of March.
Mr Browne is expected to unveil his own plan for solving the housing crisis in July.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
RTÉ News
43 minutes ago
- RTÉ News
UN summit to tackle 'emergency' in world's oceans
A global summit on the dire state of the oceans kicks off in France, with calls to ban bottom trawling and bolster protections for the world's overexploited marine areas. World leaders attending the UN Ocean Conference in Nice have been told to come up with concrete ideas - and money - to tackle what organisers call a global "emergency" facing the neglected seas. The appeal for unity comes as nations tussle over a global plastics pollution treaty, and the United States sidesteps international efforts to regulate deep-sea mining. On the eve of the summit, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that leaders must act now: "The planet can no longer tolerate broken promises." A wave of new commitments is expected Monday in Nice, where around 60 heads of state and government will join thousands of business leaders, scientists and civil society activists. "Never in the history of humanity have we brought together so many people for the oceans," French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday before hosting leaders for an official dinner. Trawling targeted On Monday, the United Kingdom is expected to announce a partial ban on bottom trawling in half its marine protected areas, putting the destructive fishing method squarely on the summit agenda. Bottom trawling sees huge fishing nets dragged across the ocean floor, a process shockingly captured in a recent documentary by British naturalist David Attenborough. Greenpeace welcomed the UK announcement on trawling but said in a statement it was "long overdue". Mr Macron on Saturday said France would restrict trawling in some of its marine protected areas but was criticised by environment groups for not going far enough. French environment minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher told reporters that other countries would make "important announcements" about the creation of new marine protected areas. Samoa led the way this past week, announcing that 30 percent of its national waters would be under protection with the creation of nine marine parks. Just eight percent of global oceans are designated for marine conservation, despite a globally agreed target to achieve 30% coverage by 2030. But even fewer are considered truly protected, as some countries impose next to no rules on what is forbidden in marine zones or lack the finance to enforce any rules. Words into action Nations will face calls to cough up the missing finance for ocean protection, which is the least funded of all the UN's 17 sustainable development goals. Small island states are expected in numbers at the summit, to demand money and political support to combat rising seas, marine trash and the plunder of fish stocks. The summit will not produce a legally binding agreement at its close, like a climate COP or treaty negotiation. But diplomats and other observers said it could mark a much needed turning point in global ocean conservation if leaders rose to the occasion. "The UN Ocean Conference gives us all an opportunity to turn words into bold and ambitious action," said Enric Sala, founder of Pristine Seas, an ocean conservation group. Another summit priority will be inching towards the numbers required to ratify a global treaty on harmful fishing subsidies, and another on protecting the high seas beyond national control.
Irish Independent
2 hours ago
- Irish Independent
The week ahead in business: Gabriel Makhlouf before Oireachtas committee, Central Bank report on financial stability, and CSO Live Register figures
It's far more likely, of course, that politicians will pursue him on the Central Bank's role in authorising the sale of Israeli bonds. There may also be questions about his recent remark that the Government should 'take stock' before making any further interventions in the housing market, as he wondered if they were all 'mutually supportive'. Also on Wednesday, the Central Bank will publish its latest Financial Stability Review, a twice-yearly report that evaluates the main risks facing the financial system, and assesses our resilience in the face of those risks. Tomorrow, the Fiscal Advisory Council will publish its assessment of the economic situation, looking at the impact of on-off tariffs as well as the state of the public finances. The independent watchdog will no doubt run its rule over the Government's annual progress report, published at the start of last month. Staying with tariffs, and tomorrow marks the end of the European Commission's public consultation on what products should be hit by counter-measures to US president Donald Trump's levies if negotiations between the EU and US fail to agree on terms. On Wednesday, the Institute of International and European Affairs is hosting an event on European security, and specifically the EU White Paper on Defence. The keynote address will be given by Thomas Byrne, junior minister for European affairs. A panel discussion on the issue will feature Professor Brigid Laffan, and it will be moderated by Catherine Day, a former secretary-general of the European Commission. The Central Statistics Office will have Live Register figures today, but its most interesting release this week comes tomorrow, when it will have an update on how much electricity is being used by data centres. They currently consume one-fifth of Ireland's power supply, but that proportion is projected to rise to one-third in the next few years.
Irish Independent
2 hours ago
- Irish Independent
Overhaul of Rent Pressure Zone rules ‘will only lead to more homelessness and evictions,' say critics
The Government's latest move to ease the housing crisis looks set to face strong resistance, with opposition parties and some homelessness groups already voicing concerns. Ministers will meet tomorrow to consider a raft of changes to RPZs, but already they are facing a backlash. Under the proposals, landlords will be able to significantly hike rents beyond current caps to market rates in between tenancies of at least six years under new proposals intended to bring increased institutional investment in the private rental sector. It is expected that Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) limits on annual rent increases of 2pc or the rate of inflation will remain but will not apply to newly built apartments, while 'no fault' evictions may be restricted for the first six years of a tenancy. Landlords will be able to 'reset' rents after six years to market rates under plans that have been described as 'disastrous' and 'outrageous' by the opposition. However, Sinn Féin housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin said the Government had failed to spot a 'loophole' in the new measures that could put tens of thousands of existing renters at risk of eviction. A landlord can evict a tenant in a Part 4 tenancy, which lasts up to six years, only on the grounds of sale, use by the landlord or family member, substantial refurbishment or a breach of contract during that period. A landlord could have evicted a tenant for any reason at the end of these six years until former housing minister Darragh O'Brien changed the legislation in mid-2022. But that clause remains in place for tenancies that predate the change. Mr Ó Broin claims the new measures could become 'a completely legal incentive' for landlords to evict tenants in order to charge full market rent. 'If you allow landlords to reset rent and existing rental properties at the new market rent, the Government will be creating a huge incentive for landlords of pre-June 2022 tenancy agreements to utilise that provision at the end of the six years in order to get the tenant out and a new tenant in at full market value,' Mr Ó Broin said. 'Each year from now until 2028, a whole chunk of Part 4 tenancies from before 2022 will arrive at their six-year end point,' he added. 'What the Government is essentially doing without realising it, in my view, is basically giving a landlord whose tenancy agreement with their tenant comes to the end of the six years a completely legal method to evict that tenant for no reason whatsoever to avail then of full market rent for the new tenant. 'I think that's going to put tens of thousands of renters in that situation at very serious risk. Not all landlords will do it. But given that for many landlords, the gap between what they're charging and what they could get will be very great, that's a very, very significant incentive.' The TD said the proposals will also lead to 'huge increase for renters as they move from rental property to another'. 'This is far worse than I was expecting from government, and I think the big losers here are renters across a range of categories, who are going to face greater levels of rent at a time when rents are already too high, but also greater levels of eviction, particularly those in existing tenancies that were created before 2022.' While the plans may aim to bring new institutional investment into the private rental sector, Mr Ó Broin said it was more likely that the measures would be 'punishing renters for very little return in terms of additional stock and the additional stock they get will be exceptionally expensive'. Evicted tenants may also be at increased risk of homelessness as a result, with Mr Ó Broin describing the new plans as 'badly designed' and a 'disastrous move' for renters. Social Democrats TD Rory Hearne said lifting the rent cap between tenancies and on new-build rentals would be an 'outrageous' and 'cruel decision' that would be 'throwing young generations to the vulture-fund landlords – making them pay for government housing failures'. 'Lifting rent caps will lead to increased evictions and homelessness as landlords evict tenants to get a new tenancy and bring the rent up to market rents,' Mr Hearne added. Threshold CEO John Mark McCafferty has warned that any dilution of rental protections could 'push more renters into financial distress and, arguably, homelessness'. My concern is around the country, where there's nothing going to be built He told RTÉ's This Week that RPZs should be continued until a 'comprehensive stepdown plan is put in place'. Irish Property Owners Association (IPOA) chair Mary Conway said that while it was positive to see an incentive to build new rental apartments, small landlords outside Dublin, 'who have been on very low rents and barely surviving' would have hoped for measures that would allow them 'to bring the rent up a little bit over a period of time, or be able to reset the rent when tenants left'. 'We would hope that would happen, that they would still agree that if a long-term tenant left, or a property was going to be sent to market, that a new rent could be set,' she said. 'My concern is around the country, where there's nothing going to be built and you have small landlords in Leitrim, Sligo, Roscommon or wherever, if they leave the market now, there's no landlords down there now to replace them.' Ms Conway said the claims put forward by the Opposition that the proposed changes would increase homelessness is 'a knee-jerk reaction'. She expects legislation would be put in place that would protect renters and stop landlords evicting a tenant to bring in another at a higher market rent. In response to queries, a spokesperson from the Department of Housing said: 'The Housing Agency was commissioned to undertake a review of the current system of rent controls using Rent Pressure Zones. The department received this report on April 28, and [Housing] Minister [James] Browne will be bringing proposals to Government shortly.' Fionnán Sheahan: 'Trust us, we're the Government' stopped working after 2024's great housing bluff - Page 21
