Destroying Iran's nukes is Netanyahu's obsession

Hindustan Times

11 hours ago

BINYAMIN NETANYAHU is not the first Israeli prime minister to attack an enemy's nuclear site. That distinction goes to Menachem Begin, who in 1981 sent Israel's air force to destroy an Iraqi nuclear reactor. Since then the Begin Doctrine—that Israel cannot allow its adversaries to have the means to produce nuclear weapons—has been a cornerstone of the Jewish state's understanding of its national security. But the threat posed by Iran's push to acquire such weapons has been a particular obsession of Mr Netanyahu's. 'Bibi's been speaking about [attacking Iran] for 40 years,' says a former senior aide to the prime minister. His moment seems to have come.
He has tried to order strikes in the past. During his second government, between 2009 and 2013, he tried at least twice to launch attacks against Iran's nuclear programme but was stymied. He faced a series of obstacles. His generals and security chiefs opposed such a move. Their aversion to such a confrontation led much of the cabinet to resist it, too. Mr Netanyahu and his defence minister, Ehud Barak, who supported strikes, failed to muster the necessary majority to go to war. Their opposition was rooted in the very real concerns about the devastation that Hizbullah, the militia and political party over Israel's northern border in Lebanon, could wreak on Israel's cities with its vast arsenal of Iranian-supplied missiles in response to an attack on Iran. They also feared the strategic damage caused by Israel going to war against the express wishes of Barack Obama, then president of Israel's main ally, America.
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No such obstacles exist today. Mr Netanyahu's far-right cabinet is, if anything, more hellbent on war than he is. The heads of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and the Mossad, the country's spy agency, both appointed by him, are also keen. After a brief and devastating war with Hizbullah last September, when Israel assassinated the group's main leaders and destroyed most of its missiles, the threat posed by the militia has lessened considerably. And the return of Donald Trump as president has changed the dynamic with America. Shortly after the American election Mr Netanyahu issued a secret directive putting Israel on a war footing with Iran. This time there was no internal opposition.
Israel's official reason for choosing this precise time to attack is that in recent months Iran has, under cover of engaging in diplomacy with America, secretly pushed ahead with experiments aimed at mastering the development and production of key components of a nuclear weapon. This, claim Israeli officials, would have put it at 'the point of no return'. It would be capable of assembling nuclear weapons within a matter of days and Israel would be unable to prevent that. It is hard to verify such claims, though Emmanuel Macron, France's president, said on June 13th that Iran's programme was 'close to a critical stage'. But given that Mr Netanyahu has always insisted that this was Iran's goal, his reasoning for at last striking, and with such ferocity, is almost certainly more complex.
Why is this war different from all other wars?
Israel has attacked nuclear-weapons programmes twice before, in Iraq in 1981, under Begin, and in Syria in 2007, under Ehud Olmert. This war is different. Iran's nuclear programme is larger, more advanced and more widely dispersed than those of Iraq and Syria. Some of the main plants are in heavily protected caverns underground. Destroying them may be beyond Israel's capabilities.
In Iraq and Syria Israel tried only to destroy their reactors. It wanted to avoid any wider conflict. But in the first waves of air strikes on Iran on June 13th, the nuclear sites were not the main targets. Israel prioritised assassinating senior Iranian commanders and destroying command centres and missile-launchers, threatening the regime itself. One Israeli official estimated that in the first 12 hours of air strikes Israel had 'barely destroyed 20% of the nuclear programme'. But Mr Netanyahu is planning at least two solid weeks of strikes, targeting many types of Iranian military assets. The nuclear sites will surely be part of those attacks.
Perhaps most importantly, in 1981 and 2007, Israel's prime ministers did not inform the Americans in advance, risking the presidents' wrath (the Reagan administration was so infuriated it issued a temporary embargo on selling new fighter jets to Israel). This time not only was Mr Trump notified well in advance of Israel's plans, but he seems to regard the strikes as another means of pressuring Iran to agree to a deal with him on limiting its nuclear ambitions. 'Maybe now they will negotiate seriously,' he said in an interview after the first strikes, congratulating Israel for using 'great American equipment'.
And so after all those decades of sabre-rattling, Mr Netanyahu has at last got what he wanted: war with Iran, prosecuted by a compliant IDF and backed by America. In military terms the strikes have so far been successful. But Mr Netanyahu seems to have broader aims. He has been increasingly clear that he believes these attacks should pave the way for regime change. In an address to the Iranian people on June 13th he said that Israel 'clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom'.
And the war could yet get more risky. On the second night Iran struck back with multiple salvoes of missiles and drones, most of which were intercepted by Israeli and American missile-defence batteries and fighter-jets. A few got through, however, destroying buildings in Tel Aviv and causing at least three deaths. Israel is probably willing to pay such a price, for now, but if the war drags on, those calculations may change. And although Mr Trump is so far backing Israel's war, he has made it very clear he prefers it to end in a deal with Iran. This is where he may clash with Mr Netanyahu.
For the prime minister, this is a moment to rescue his legacy, his other obsession and one that has been hopelessly compromised by his failures in relation to Hamas's attacks of October 7th 2023. Today he believes he has redeemed himself with the attack on Iran he has been yearning for for so long. But the Iranians are far from out of the fight. And Mr Trump has an eye on his own legacy too.
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