Are Canadiens buying or selling? Plus, ranking the defence and Kirby Dach's future: Mailbag

New York Times

3 hours ago

It's been a very long time since I've done one of these, and there was a flood of questions in the mailbag as a result. So, I'll break this into two parts and address some more questions later this week.
This is a big week for the Montreal Canadiens, with the NHL Draft on Friday night and Saturday and the expectation that there could be some movement, even if those expectations don't appear to be rooted in reality right now.
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The trade market is challenging for Montreal because many other teams are seeking exactly what they are looking for, and because the teams that might be willing to move players are looking for NHL players in return, rather than magic beans.
But one thing is certain: Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes are working hard in this less-than-ideal market. The Canadiens' decision-makers are leaving no stone unturned and are aggressively trying to work this market, a league source said. But there's a difference between being aggressive and being stupid, and the Canadiens are not willing to be stupid.
So, we'll see what happens this week. But while we wait, let's get to the first batch of your questions.
With the recent trend of teams all trying to get better at the same time, how much do you think HuGo are taking this broader picture into account? Should the Canadiens stay put this year, sell future UFAs this summer and aim for another high pick? Lots of championship teams had bumps on the road while rebuilding, and all those teams trending up is an opportunity to bank on? – Carl P.
This is not a bad way of looking at it, Carl. Zigging when everyone else is zagging, yes? Especially with the potential prize of Gavin McKenna staring you right in the face if you can put together one more terrible season.
But my sense is the Canadiens are not thinking in these terms. They don't want to take a step back right now, much like almost the entire rest of the NHL. In terms of future UFAs they could sell, you're only really looking at Patrik Laine and Mike Matheson. I have no doubt they would listen if a team wanted to take a run at Laine, but Matheson is more complicated. Matheson is an important part of the team's defence right now. He plays on both special teams and logs a ton of difficult minutes. Trading Matheson would change the short-term dynamic on the blue line drastically, and I'm not sure the Canadiens would entertain that thought.
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As Marc Antoine Godin reported, there was a long meeting between Matheson, Gorton and Hughes in Buffalo at the NHL scouting combine, and I believe both sides are at least starting to consider a contract extension, what that might look like and what both sides would be comfortable with.
So, no, I don't think the Canadiens will go into sell mode to take advantage of this seller's market, largely because the players other teams would be interested in buying are largely not for sale.
However, there is also a bit of a longer game that might be in play this year, and McKenna has something to do with it.
If some teams get off to a bad start, the idea of an impromptu tank becomes that much more appealing with a potentially franchise-altering talent such as McKenna available. So, it's at least possible that some teams could pull the plug on the season a little earlier than usual, and teams that conserve cap space and trade assets could pounce at that time and add talent that will suddenly be available for trade that's not necessarily available right now.
I don't know if Montreal will do this, but it's something I could see several teams monitoring. It serves as some incentive to be patient and not jump into a stagnant market too hastily this offseason.
How would you rank the Habs defencemen in terms of how untouchable they are? Prospects included. With some of the buzz surrounding the Habs interest in Nic Hague, it got me thinking about how they view some of the depth they have on the blue line. Curious to see how you view their core on defence moving forward and which players you might think the team views as expendable. – Zachary C.
Let's make one thing clear: Zachary is asking for my opinion and not necessarily how the Canadiens view things. Which is a good thing, because I have no idea how the Canadiens view it.
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But what's obvious to me, and probably the Canadiens as well, is they have a surplus of young defencemen and a shortage of forwards. So, the question is extremely valid. If the Canadiens do make a trade for some immediate help in the top six (again, a very unlikely turn of events but one they are actively pursuing), it would likely mean there would be a young defenceman or two heading out.
As far as I'm concerned, I would not trade Lane Hutson, barring some sort of exceptionally talented return coming back. He is my most untouchable Canadiens defenceman because the possibilities are so great and we have no real idea what his ceiling can be. But if his rookie season set his floor, that's a keeper for me.
One rung (slightly) lower, I'd put Kaiden Guhle and David Reinbacher because they are the types of defencemen teams win with. In Reinbacher's case, of course, we still have no idea what he can be in the NHL, but he's here because of everything he's done in Laval, despite awful luck with injuries since being taken with the No. 5 pick in the 2023 draft. The unknown and the potential make him so appealing. Guhle, on the other hand, has already shown what he can become in the NHL. The only question that remains with him is whether he can stay healthy. In both cases, it would take a lot for me to even consider moving them.
Alexandre Carrier is in a tier of his own because he is extremely valuable to the Canadiens and has another year left on his contract. He's pretty far from untouchable, but Carrier being traded for a forward would leave a hole that would be near impossible to fill on the blue line, perhaps even more impossible than the hole Matheson would leave behind in a hypothetical trade for a forward.
The next tier is Matheson because of his contract and his relative potential value on the trade market. A lot of teams would love to add his skating and versatility, even if it comes with some brain cramps.
Everyone else in the organization, to me at least, is very tradeable. Now, would I jump into an Arber Xhekaj trade for the sake of it? Absolutely not. I think he is part of the Canadiens' future, and I think that's how they see him. But he is a rare commodity, and that makes his trade value perhaps higher than his actual value. Jayden Struble, Logan Mailloux, Adam Engström — these are guys who could just as easily represent a part of the future in Montreal or elsewhere because it is difficult to see a future with all these guys playing together for the Canadiens, especially with Guhle, Hutson and Reinbacher seemingly around for the long-term.
How's Kirby Dach's rehab and preparation going? I see him as the ultimate bird in the hand at 2C. In this playoff we've seen Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart and Pierre-Luc Dubois all being celebrated as reclamation projects. Bennett's PPG in his first six seasons was .35. Kirby's is .45. Why wouldn't the Habs platoon Dach and Alex Newhook next year at 2C until at least the trade deadline? – Andrew G.
Arpon, everyone seems convinced that Kirby Dach can't be the No. 2 centre for the Canadiens. I agree his injury problems and disappointing start to the season last year put that in question. However, it would seem wise to me to not overspend in free agency, or in a trade, to fill that need until he has another chance to play a full season. Don't you think that between Newhook, Oliver Kapanen, Jake Evans, and potentially Owen Beck, the team has enough contingency to give him one more legitimate shot at it? Or, is it a matter of trying to take some pressure off him while he tries to reestablish himself? – Eric B.
Do you think there's a parallel between the 'development' of Kirby Dach and that of Dylan Strome? – Gabriel Charlebois-Plante
This, again, for a second consecutive offseason, is a critical question for the Canadiens.
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The positive for the Canadiens is that, unlike several of the other teams looking for a No. 2 centre, they have a decent backup plan, as uncertain as that backup plan might be.
I was told Dach's rehab is going very well. He is doing monthly health checkups with the team, and some of his conditioning metrics are at an all-time high. So, that's good news.
The way Gorton and Hughes both talked about Dach at their end-of-season news conference appeared to put the onus on Dach to do everything he can to arrive at training camp ready to attack the upcoming season and put his best foot forward much earlier than he did last season. Some people behind the scenes questioned his conditioning early on last season, so hearing that he's doing his part early in this offseason should be encouraging.
This is the last year of Dach's contract, and as Hughes said at the end of the season, there is still some belief in the organization that he will realize his enormous potential. But that potential will need to be realized, at least to some extent, by the end of this season for this relationship to continue.
I liked Gabriel's question on Dylan Strome because I had a chance to talk about his journey and the success he's found with the Washington Capitals. Like Dach, Strome was a No. 3 pick (in the 2015 draft), and it took him joining his third team to find success and belief in himself as being worthy of that pick.
Strome signed with the Capitals in 2022, coming off a season with the Chicago Blackhawks that did not exactly begin well.
'I got scratched a lot in that 2021-22 season, and then I finished the season on a good note — I played the last 60 games or something,' Strome said back in April. 'I was feeling confident, feeling good about my game. I felt like I knew what kind of player I was, just stringing a couple of good seasons in a row together. I felt like I solidified myself as a good NHL player, and luckily, I got that opportunity in Washington and just tried to run with it.'
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Strome's draft position wasn't a burden, he said. But as he answered, he kind of admitted it was.
'I don't really think it's a burden. I think it gives you more opportunities later on in your career,' he said. 'When you're a high pick, the skill level and the talent's there, it's just about finding the right fit and executing at the NHL level.
'But of course, when you see everyone else that got drafted around you do really well, you want to be doing the same thing. I think it's human nature. I always believed in myself as an NHL player, but when it doesn't happen for a while, you start to wonder if it ever is going to happen.'
Strome was drafted right after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel and just ahead of Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin in 2015. Dach was not surrounded by the same superstar talent in the 2019 draft – he was taken one pick after Kaapo Kakko and just before Bowen Byram and Alex Turcotte, but you have to imagine what Strome said about wondering if it would ever happen for him is starting to creep into Dach's mind at this point.
The opportunity Strome got in Washington, however, can be seen somewhat similarly to the opportunity Dach might have ahead of him in Montreal. The Canadiens need a top-six centre. They hope to surround that top-six centre with strong talent that starts with Ivan Demidov playing his rookie season and perhaps another acquisition on the wing to significantly change the dynamic Dach played between this season.
The Canadiens probably don't feel all that comfortable going into next season with Dach pencilled into the 2C slot. But it's not the disastrous situation a lot of fans probably look at it as. There is still a lot of potential in Dach, he should play with urgency because his contract expires at the end of next season, and Demidov's arrival could be a serious game-changer for how that second line works.
We've seen what Dach looks like when he's at his best. It was brief, and it was a long time ago, but that version of Dach over the second half of the 2022-23 season showed enormous potential. Perhaps the confluence of urgent career circumstances next season will pull that version of Dach out of him.
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And, as mentioned before, if it doesn't, there could be another trade window that opens up if some teams decide the 2025-26 season is not worth further investment and other options at centre suddenly become available.
See you for Part 2 of this mailbag soon.
(Photo of Kirby Dach: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)