Is indy inevitable? The signs are looking good for Yessers

The Herald Scotland

24-04-2025

Nevertheless, there are arguments worth having here, for both sides of the constitutional debate, not to mention for those who want to understand the state of and long-term trends in Scottish political opinion. The key question is one of demography. We have known since 2014 that the younger a voter is, the more likely they are to support independence. The most recent poll found that 75% of 16-29-year-olds would vote Yes, compared to just 34% of those over 75. This gap is regularly deployed in arguments over whether Scottish independence is only a matter of time.
Independence supporters often make what has been euphemistically called the "actuarial" argument: as older, more unionist voters pass away, and as younger, more pro-independence voters come of age, the level of overall support for secession will rise until a persistent majority are in favour of Scottish secession. Between the 2014 referendum and the end of last year, there were around 620,000 deaths in Scotland, and just under 550,000 teenagers turned 16 and became eligible to vote, equivalent to around one-eighth of the Scottish electorate.
Read more by Mark McGeoghegan
The obvious counterargument to this, made predominantly by supporters of the Union, is that as younger people get older, they become more risk-averse. They accumulate assets, like savings and pensions. They become increasingly likely to own their own home. They are more likely to have children. In other words, they become more inclined to conserve what they have accumulated and less likely to support radical policies in general and secession from the United Kingdom in particular.
The problem for supporters of the Union is that this argument doesn't appear to be supported by empirical evidence. My analysis of 23 years' worth of data collected by the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, published last week by Edinburgh University's Centre on Constitutional Change, found strong support for a "cohort" effect, but no evidence that younger voters become less pro-independence as they age.
Rather than look at age groups over time, I looked at birth cohorts – the oldest were those born before 1958, and the youngest after 1999 – to track what happens to their support for or opposition to independence as they get older. I found a clear difference between birth cohorts over time, with each successive cohort increasingly likely to support independence. These gaps persist over time, and not a single cohort has become less likely to support independence as they have aged.
There are many caveats to attach to these findings, which I went into in depth in my essay for the Centre on Constitutional Change, but the long and short of it is that the data appears to support the "actuarial" argument made by independence supporters. Indeed, headline support for independence in the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has grown since 2014 from 33% to 48% in 2023, overtaking devolution as the most popular first-choice constitutional arrangement in 2016.
It is crucial to understand that these findings don't mean that independence is a matter of when, not if. Public opinion is malleable, not set in stone, as these data demonstrate. External events, as well as political campaigns, can shape opinion and shift politics in unpredictable directions. But the trend, thus far, is clear.
These findings raise a range of questions. For pollsters and researchers, it appears time to interrogate how we measure support for independence. Opinion polls continue to use the binary, Yes-or-No referendum question and many then weigh their samples to the 2014 result. Given the evidence for a cohort effect and the changes in the electorate since 2014, we should question the wisdom of weighting polling to reflect an electorate that no longer exists.
This isn't just an esoteric question of polling methodology, it is a substantial question with real political consequences. Opinion polling has been repeatedly deployed since 2014 to demonstrate that nothing has changed, there is no demand for independence, and there is no demand for a second referendum. Polling measures today's public opinion, but also shapes tomorrow's politics. We must get those measurements right.
But the biggest questions posed are for unionists. The "actuarial" argument was described by now Labour MP Blair McDougall, who ran the Better Together campaign, as 'intellectual laziness'. When Nicola Sturgeon alluded to demographic shifts a few years ago, unionist figures characterised her comments as 'crass', 'distasteful' and showing a 'chilling lack of empathy'. Empirical reality doesn't care whether the facts are distasteful, crass, unempathetic, or in support of lazy arguments.
Blair McDougall (Image: PA)
There is a malaise at the heart of British politics that has driven successive generations to become less and less supportive of the Union. Most voters under 55 support independence, and there is no suggestion that this will change. Unionists need to engage with that reality.
Some already are doing so, seeking a position beyond the Yes/No divide that a majority of Scots can rally behind. Jim Gallagher, a former Better Together strategist and senior civil servant, posed exactly that question in response to my analysis, telling the Sunday Times that 'we have the space to think more creatively about how Scotland best relates to the rest of Britain'. They have willing interlocutors on the pro-independence side who also recognise that, given the current constitutional deadlock, finding a middle ground will be more productive than continuing to hammer away at the 2014-era independence debate. Last year's Centre for Public Policy report co-authored by Kezia Dugdale, former Scottish Labour leader, and Stephen Noon, former Yes Scotland strategist, was one such effort.
Scots' perceptions of our place in the world, and preferences for what that place should be, are gradually changing with each generation, with the potential for huge political shifts in the coming decades. Bad news for those hoping for a return to quiet normality after the past decade of constitutional upheaval. We are cursed – or blessed, depending on your point of view – to live in interesting times.
Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social