Poised For A Shift: Brooklyn Summer 2025 Real Estate Preview

Forbes

3 days ago

Brooklyn's spring momentum, marked by sales prices breaking $1 million and asking rents breaking ... More $4,000, suggests a story of underlying strength.
Brooklyn's summer 2025 market is being shaped by rising supply, record rents, and surprising price resilience, even as the market environment remains lackluster with softer demand – showing that Manhattan's stronger start and April volatility don't necessarily set the tone across the river.
To find out what's happening beneath the surface in Brooklyn, we created a multifocal view that stitches together supply and demand, Market Pulse, Market Climate, sales prices, and asking rents to map out what lies ahead for buyers and sellers in the borough in the coming season.
As much as Brooklyn's idiosyncratic allure is responsible for its increased popularity over the years, its real estate market is fundamentally driven by supply and demand dynamics. For the last several years, supply has been anemic, and demand, even when lackluster, has driven the market higher. This year, however, the tables may have finally flipped. Let's break it down.
Supply in Brooklyn, 2022 through 2025
Brooklyn has seen a quiet resurgence in supply. At the beginning of the year, it was at its lowest point since before the pandemic, following a multi-year deceleration. Sellers began to come back to the market in February, March, and April, and now supply sits nearly even with 2022's levels. In three months, the level of inventory in Brooklyn went from long-term lows to medium-term highs, and currently sits 8.5% above last year's level. The increase in supply is generally even across the under-$1-million segment and the $1-million-to-$2-million category at 7%. Interestingly, it is the over-$2-million segment that shows the greatest increase, nearly 13% compared to last year, which is likely due to slowly increasing prices rather than a sudden jump in the desire to sell.
The rolling 30-day pace of signed contracts in the borough is up just over 6% higher than last year, but momentum varies by price. The over-$2-million segment is the only one seeing an uptick in demand over the prior year, and, at just 1%, it is essentially flat. Demand for units under $2 million is down by 4% compared to last year. That may seem minor, but 2024 was not a year to remember, so being down from that suggests that under-$2-million buyers remain skeptical.
Year-over-year change in supply and demand at different price points
Brooklyn's Pulse index, a ratio of demand to supply, is down 2.8 points year-over-year, its weakest reading in five years, and sits at the bottom of the neutral range. This dip reflects the current imbalance between supply and demand. If new listings taper off in May and June while signed contracts hold firm, look for the Pulse to recover as we head into summer.
Brooklyn's Market Pulse, May 2022 to April 2025
The UD Climate Ratio (successful vs. failed listings) dipped slightly to 2.61 in April. While this is still the second-highest reading in the last year, it is down from the March reading. On a longer-term basis, the Brooklyn Climate's peaks remain below the highest levels seen in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The gradual decline of the Climate's seasonal summits suggests that buyer caution remains elevated. So, while deals are still being done, the market landscape is fragmented, with varying pockets of strength and weakness depending on the attributes of individual properties.
Brooklyn's Market Climate, May 2022 to April 2025
The first quarter of 2025 saw the Brooklyn median sale price break the $1 million mark for the first time at $1,022,500. Currently, sales in the second quarter appear poised to increase, with recent sales having a median price of $1,024,400. While this may only be 0.2% higher than Q1, it is nearly 5% higher than what was seen during the second quarter of 2024. Of course, Brooklyn still has another month to go, but the fact that prices are rising in the face of rising supply and a weakening market environment hints that Brooklyn may be quietly rebounding. History shows that once that train leaves the station, it's not stopping.
Quarterly Resale Condo Price Per Square Foot in Brooklyn, Q1 2015 through Q2 2025
Similar to sales prices, asking rents in Brooklyn broke through their recent ceiling. For most of 2024 and early 2025, asking rents in Brooklyn had been pushing up against the $4,000 level, but didn't break through until this year. The median asking rent this May climbed to a new high of $4,200 in April (+7.7% year-over-year), blasting past the $4,000 ceiling and signaling a hot summer ahead, especially as 7% mortgage rates push borrowing costs higher. Still, tight rental conditions could spill over into the sales market, especially at lower price points, where buyers frustrated by rising rents may start their search for a home to buy.
Median Asking Rent in Brooklyn, January 2019 through May 2025
Brooklyn's spring momentum, marked by sales prices breaking $1 million and asking rents breaking $4,000, suggests a story of underlying strength. However, rising supply, flat demand, and mixed environmental signals indicate a market in transition. What seems likely to emerge this summer is a churning, segment-specific market:
Be Ready: Brooklyn's market signals are mixed, but a look behind the scenes suggests a transition may be underway. If that is the case, then buyer leverage will likely fade from here. Market activity usually contracts during the slower summer months, and with supply leading demand, fewer listings in the summer mean an increase in seller leverage, even if slight. If a home comes along that ticks all the boxes, don't be afraid to make a move.
Stay Focused: Although buyers have yet to make a substantial return to the market, with sales and asking rents rising, the market remains stable. The key to a summer sale remains pricing correctly and managing expectations. Yes, it will take longer to sell in the summer. Yes, there will be competition. Yes, there will be periods of little to no action. But, crucially, yes, there will be buyers.
Despite signs to the contrary, Brooklyn appears poised for a shift. If you're thinking about buying or selling in the borough this summer, it pays to understand how the local supply and demand dynamics are shaping prices and perception in your area.