India shares stumble on trade uncertainty
MUMBAI: Indian shares declined on Thursday as lingering uncertainty around the US-China trade deal and mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dented risk appetite.
The Nifty 50 fell 1.01% to 24,888.2, snapping a six-session winning streak, while the BSE Sensex lost 1% to 81,691.98.
The broader small-caps and mid-caps both fell 1.8% and 1.6%. All the 13 major sectors logged losses.
Global sentiment weakened despite US President Donald Trump claiming a tariff framework with China had been reached as the absence of concrete terms kept markets on edge.
'Markets remain trapped in a fog of mixed signals-no final draft, and Trump's shifting goalposts,' said Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at Wealthmills Securities.
'The inconsistency and unreliability from the US, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept investors risk averse,' added Bathini
Geopolitical concerns escalated after Iran said it will strike US bases in the Middle East if nuclear talks fail and conflict arises with Washington.
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Express Tribune
an hour ago
- Express Tribune
Trump and ancient Chinese wisdom
The writer heads the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad. He is currently a visiting Research Fellow at Fudan University, Shanghai Listen to article Is Donald Trump the present day manifestation of the ancient Chinese businessman who enjoyed the least of respect in society? A direct comparison may sound unfair to the president, but his fixation on tariffs – seemingly rooted in arrogant nationalism – has prompted many in China to recall how ancient Chinese emperors and philosophers viewed businessmen. The falling out of Trump and Elon Musk – two powerful businessmen – also perhaps offers the latest illustration of that Chinese wisdom on businessmen's propensity to be self-righteous, arrogant and self-serving when the situation so demands. When Trump, a businessman turned politician, intensified his pursuit of increased tax revenues by imposing customs duties on a wide range of US imports from various global sources, he elicited a reaction from even the most esteemed traditional partners, such as the European Union and India. While Trump's intentions to revitalise the US economy and achieve 'Make-America-Great-Again' resonated with many, his actions evoked a comparison in China to the behaviour of ancient Chinese businessmen. These individuals were renowned for their unwavering pursuit of personal gain, often disregarding societal norms and values. This is how businessmen were viewed in general. Within the traditional Chinese cultural hierarchy, the Emperor of course stood above everybody else, with the absolute authority. All others – the citizens of the empire – however, were divided into four distinct classes. While businessmen were respected for their wealth and success, their primary focus on profit was perceived as less noble than their contributions to society through learning or government service. The most esteemed members of this class were the wisemen, scholars, advisors and officials. Their invaluable contributions to the Emperor's governance were recognised through their knowledge, virtue and intellectual pursuits. Their writings and intellectual endeavours were highly valued and contributed to the state's development. The second most respected class consisted of farmers, who were responsible for cultivating crops and providing food for the population. They were regarded as the foundation of the economy, ensuring the sustenance of the entire population. Artisans, technicians, engineers and construction experts, who possessed specialised skills, were the third most esteemed class. Their contributions were instrumental in developing technical tools and facilitating daily life. The business community, comprising merchants, held a lowly position in society, regarded as the least respected class. The Emperor held a disdain for businessmen, believing they prioritised money over morality and would resort to any means, ethical or immoral, to achieve financial gain. Consequently, few businessmen sought proximity to the Emperor. While there were methods to evade the Emperor's disdain, businessmen were generally the least welcomed and least respected members of the royal court due to their perceived greed for wealth. However, this perception has shifted over time, not only in China but also in other parts of the world. Businessmen have played a pivotal role in the country's economic growth, exemplified by the billionaire founder of Ali Baba, Jack Ma. The concept of 'Chinese businessman wisdom' has emerged, referring to the practical, astute, and often pragmatic approach to business that is highly esteemed by both Chinese and international audiences. The traditional hierarchical structure has undergone a gradual softening, and various professions, including business, are now recognised for their unique contributions to society. The contemporary emphasis on economic development has fostered a more positive attitude towards business and entrepreneurship. The government actively encourages entrepreneurship and private enterprise, acknowledging the indispensable role of businesses in the nation's development. Nevertheless, certain actions are considered unacceptable and should not be crossed. Jack Ma's conduct a few years ago prompted many to draw upon ancient wisdom and draw parallels between the past and the present. His interactions with the central bank invariably drew comparisons to the past and often served as an example of a businessman attempting to exert control over the central bank. The context involved technical difficulties experienced by Ali-Pay, a digital payment system, in conjunction with the central bank. Upon making his public complaint, Jack Ma faced significant repercussions from the Chinese authorities. His passing remark about China's finance system was interpreted as a mockery by the Beijing authorities, leading to questions about his intentions. They expressed concern that Jack Ma might intend to control the finance system through Ali-Pay. As a result, Jack Ma encountered substantial opposition from the authorities. They argued that the Central Bank is a trusted institution – in fact a public Trust – that efficiently manages and looks after the interests of the people. If allowed to operate like a Western capital institution, entities such as Ali-Pay could potentially disrupt the system and harm the interests of the Chinese people. The official backlash compelled Jack Ma to take a break from business – a sort of sabbatical. However, he recently resurfaced with more empathetic views on China's financial system – more aligned with the national ethos as projected by the leadership. A Chinese friend described him as helpful and engaged in significant philanthropic activities – something expected of every affluent Chinese who are expected to pay back after benefitting under the system, which rests on a national spirit and ethos that keep citizens at the centre. The citizen, says the ancient Chinese philosophy, is central to a state's stability, and hence his/her welfare is paramount for the political economy. All indicators suggest the Chinese Communist Party continues to follow that golden philosophy. It's yet to be seen how much the Trump-Musk acrimony hurts the people. There couldn't have been a better validation of the Chinese definition of a businessman than the mutual public trolling both Trump and Musk indulged in following the implosion of their alliance.
Express Tribune
an hour ago
- Express Tribune
Optical delusions
Listen to article Within the past thirty days, we have witnessed two wars waged to consolidate power and for optics. India tried to invade Pakistan for all the worst reasons imaginable. Shortly after the Pahalgam incident, when India failed to produce a smoking gun — some serious evidence to implicate Pakistan or even apprehend the actual perpetrators who still remain at large -—Indian client analysts in international think tanks, or those appearing on international news channels, tried to present war or strikes deep inside Pakistan as a political imperative. Modi had to maintain this image of strength, you know. That's why they had to attack Pakistan. And India was confident that, through back-channel pressures, it could compel Pakistan not to retaliate. That plan did not go well, and the overconfident Indian spin masters ended up presenting India as a state that can risk nuclear escalation for one man's image management. But look at the fallout. Since the early 1990s, India had somehow convinced the West that its cooperation was critical in containing China. As this image grew, it asked for Pakistan's head on a platter. While the West could not do that, it did the next best thing: wealth and unprecedented influence. India used both to isolate Pakistan. But with one irrational act, it ended up exposing its chinks in the armour. With one strategic blowback, the world now knew India was nowhere near there. It wasn't the West that needed India; it was India that needed the West. Who wants that kind of liability? Everyone will only look at the main asset the country has got: its wealth. All relationships will be transactional from now on. As for Pakistan, three decades of Indian blackmail against the country have ended, and the world is ready to work with Pakistan. Domestically, Modi's image has been badly shaken. The deep state and the hardliners see him as a liability and are counting the days till they get rid of him. To save face, Modi got the help of Niti Aayog (the body that replaced the Planning Commission), and through some numerical voodoo, the body declared that India's economy had beaten Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy. Japan has been India's main benefactor. Imagine how these reports played out within the country. The world now knows that the Indian deep state knows that Modi has no value to contribute. Some optics. The second case is that of Israel's Netanyahu, who has been using political radicalism to offset three major corruption cases against him. As a result, the Israeli polity has constantly radicalised. In the aftermath of October 7's ghastly attacks, instead of prioritising the rescue of the hostages, he declared a forever war, which has exposed the sheer brutality of the regime. Meanwhile, he has used all elements to regularly manipulate political outcomes in the US and other Western democracies. This policy has been the law of diminishing returns. Only a day ago, Israel carried out a massive attack on Iran. Purpose? Optics again. The global outrage against Israel's genocide in Gaza is growing. In any case, the blood of the Gazans is not enough to indefinitely feed the tiger of political hate he rides. So, why not expand the war? I hold no brief for Iran, but this is too transparent to go unnoticed. Israel called these attacks 'pre-emptive strikes', and the US called them a unilateral action. Remember the days when the US used to carry out "pre-emptive strikes" on Israel's behalf? The law of diminishing returns, indeed. Meanwhile, the cases against Netanyahu are where they were. As Ta-Nehisi Coates once said: Your oppression will not save you. History has some lessons for these politicians. Four days after Pearl Harbour, Adolf Hitler made perhaps the most catastrophic decision in modern warfare - declaring war on the United States purely to maintain his image as a loyal ally to Japan. Despite having no treaty obligation and every strategic reason to avoid a two-front war, Hitler couldn't bear appearing weak or unreliable to his Axis partners. The declaration was born entirely from ego and optics, not strategy. In one impulsive moment, driven by his need to project strength, Hitler handed Roosevelt the perfect gift - a declaration that galvanised American support for the very strategy planners had envisioned: an enormous two-front commitment that would treat Germany as the principal threat. You know what happened next. Jimmy Carter was drowning in the polls when Iranian revolutionaries seized American hostages, and the pressure to look presidential became unbearable. Despite military advisers warning about the mission's complexity, Carter greenlit Operation Eagle Claw — not primarily to save the hostages, but to save his presidency. The mission was always more about optics than operations, a desperate attempt to project strength in an election year. When helicopters collided in the Iranian desert, killing eight servicemen and leaving classified documents behind, the rescue attempt became a symbol of American impotence. Carter, seeking to appear decisive and strong, instead looked more helpless than ever. The failed mission sealed his electoral fate, and Ronald Reagan rode the backlash all the way to the White House. Douglas MacArthur was a genuine American hero, a brilliant tactician who had saved countless lives through his strategic genius in the Pacific. But even great men can fall victim to the siren call of complete victory. After his masterful Inchon landing, MacArthur faced a choice that would define his legacy: stop at the 38th parallel or push for total triumph in North Korea. The general, having tasted success and facing pressure from Washington not to settle for half-measures, chose to cross the line. It was an understandable decision from a commander who had delivered miracle after miracle. Yet history had one more lesson to teach: China entered the war, forcing the longest retreat in American military history. The general who had never known defeat watched his forces flee south, and President Truman ultimately relieved him of command. MacArthur's pursuit of total victory cost him everything he had built. General Leopoldo Galtieri was a desperate man leading a desperate government when he ordered the invasion of the Falkland Islands. With Argentina's economy collapsing and massive protests filling the streets, the military junta needed a patriotic victory to survive. The Falklands seemed perfect — a beloved national cause that would unite the country behind its leaders. "We need this," Galtieri reportedly told his cabinet, and for a brief moment, it worked. Massive crowds celebrated in Buenos Aires as Argentine flags flew over Port Stanley. But history cared nothing for Galtieri's political survival. Margaret Thatcher dispatched a task force 8,000 miles across the Atlantic, and within weeks, Argentina's military was in shambles. From Delhi to Tel Aviv, from Berlin to Buenos Aires, history keeps repeating its lesson: optics may win headlines, but strategy decides legacies.
Business Recorder
4 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Oil jumps over 7% after Israel strikes Iran
HOUSTON: Oil prices jumped over 7% on Friday to multi-month highs after Israel launched air strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Brent crude futures were up $4.94, or 7.12%, to $74.30 a barrel at 1442 GMT, after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the strongest level since January 27. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $4.72, or 6.94%, at $72.75, touching its highest since January 21 at $77.62 earlier in the session. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran has promised a harsh response. U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear programme, to put an end to the 'next already planned attacks.' The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate. Oil prices drop as traders gauge ME tensions The primary concern was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at 'Sustained upside would require actual disruptions to physical flows - such as damage to Iran's oil infrastructure or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint,' Tzabouras said in a note on Friday morning. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. So far, no impact to oil flow in the region has been seen, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. 'No energy installations have been impacted by the Israeli strikes, so unless Iran decides to drag other nations, especially the U.S. into the conflict, the risk of a supply disruption remains low and should over time reduce the risk premium,' Hansen said. Iran could pay a heavy price for blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which it and its neighbors rely on to ship oil to Asian markets, analysts said on Friday. 'Iran's economy heavily relies on the free passage of goods and vessels through the seaway, as its oil exports are entirely sea-based. Finally, cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran's relationship with its sole oil customer, China, said Natasha Kaneva, Prateek Kedia, Lyuba Savinova, analysts with JP Morgan. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc.
