Alliance reveals UK defense ambitions extend beyond Europe

Arab News

15 hours ago

https://arab.news/pfqjr
One of the key drivers of the UK Strategic Defense Review released earlier this month is the military threat from Russia, especially following its invasion of Ukraine. However, London's focus extends well beyond Europe, including to the Asia-Pacific region with the new AUKUS alliance.
One of the key announcements in the defense review is that the UK will build up to a dozen new submarines within the new AUKUS alliance with Australia and the US. This highlights the importance of the new alliance to London — it is perceived by some senior UK policymakers as potentially the most significant development since the 1958 Mutual Defense Agreement, with the US given the future potential to develop and deliver cutting-edge capabilities, and help revitalize the UK defense industrial base.
Yet, AUKUS may be about to hit a US political iceberg. The Trump team announced, only days after the UK defense review, that it has launched an AUKUS probe led by the Pentagon. Both the UK and Australian governments have declared optimism that Trump officials will, ultimately, 'green light' next steps with the nascent alliance, which was created in 2021 under the Biden administration.
Moreover, at the G7 last week, US President Donald Trump gave credence to this. Speaking with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said that London, Canberra, and Washington are 'very long-time partners and allies and friends.'
AUKUS may be about to hit a US political iceberg
Andrew Hammond
Yet, uncertainty still remains — potential cancelation, or revising the terms of AUKUS, which may cause delay, are plausible. This is not least because US Defense Undersecretary for Policy Elbridge Colby, who is heading the US review, last year criticized the submarine element of the agreement, asserting that for the US 'it would be crazy to have fewer SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines) in the right place and time.'
What Colby, who admits to being 'skeptical' about AUKUS, refers to here is the first pillar of the deal, which is centered around providing Australia with SSNs. Currently, Australia only has diesel-electric submarines, and one ultimate goal of AUKUS is for a fleet of new SSNs to be developed by London and Canberra utilizing UK design blueprints with US technology to spur military interoperability between the three.
In the interim, existing US and UK SSNs will rotate to Australia while a new nuclear submarine base is being built in Perth that is scheduled to be operational by around 2027. Canberra also plans to buy at least three, and possibly up to five, second-hand so-called Virginia-class SSNs from the US from 2032.
Under the terms of the AUKUS deal, Australia has already begun paying the US. This includes around $500 million given to Washington in February, which is a down payment of a bigger $2 billion in 2025.
Colby's comments from last year indicate that the lens he will use for the AUKUS review is whether the deal undermines the ability of the US defense industry to meet the nation's military needs. Part of the wider context here is production delays for the Virginia-class submarines, and cost overruns of billions of dollars. These supply challenges are one reason Colby has queried AUKUS, especially given potential future war scenarios in which Washington might need more submarines, fast.
It is not just Trump, but also other key figures, such as US Ambassador to the UK Warren Stephens, who have indicated support for AUKUS. Last month, Stephens said Washington is 'proud to stand alongside Britain and Australia, two of our closest allies, as we deepen our collaboration to respond to a changing world.'
However, the submarine supply challenge is not the only one that may complicate the deal. In addition, US and UK export controls on sensitive technologies between the three nations has slowed work to develop next generation technologies in wider, so-called pillar-two areas, including development of hypersonic missiles and quantum computing.
In this context, outright cancelation of AUKUS by the Trump team is an option that cannot be ruled out. Such an outcome would frustrate not only the UK, but also Australia, which terminated a deal to buy diesel-powered submarines from France when it signed up to the alliance in 2021. Scott Morrison, prime minister at the time, took a big diplomatic hit from this.
A wider range of nations may also be keen to join
Andrew Hammond
However, cancelation appears the least likely option. What may be more likely is a revision of the deal's wider terms so these are more weighted in favor of Washington.
For instance, the Trump team could seek to pressure Australia to boost its military spending, which is around 2 percent of gross domestic product, with an intent to raise this to about 2.4 percent by 2033-2034. While this 2 percent figure is higher than some countries in the NATO alliance, it is much less than the US, while the UK has committed to reaching 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027.
If the AUKUS alliance does survive, there are a wider range of nations that may also be keen to join as full or associate members in coming years. This includes New Zealand, Canada, Japan, and South Korea.
Take the example of Canada, which two former UK prime ministers, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, have previously backed for AUKUS membership 'to strengthen the West's collective defenses.' Johnson has even said that Canada is the 'most obvious next candidate,' and previous prime minister Justin Trudeau said that he held 'excellent conversations' with London, Washington, and Canberra over joining the alliance.
Taken together, if Trump does not scrap AUKUS, the project could assume significant new momentum. While expansion of the alliance is unlikely in the immediate term, collaboration with a range of Western allies in the Asia-Pacific and Americas is possible into the 2030s.