UFC 317 Fight Card Odds, Picks And Predictions: Talbott Vs. Lima
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 18: Payton Talbott looks on against Raoni Barcelos of Brazil in a ... More bantamweight fight during the UFC 311 event at Intuit Dome on January 18, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
One of the late additions to the UFC 317 pay-per-view card was a bantamweight battle between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima. The fight came together in mid-June for the June 28 fight card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. NV. While neither of these young fighters is in the top 15, they both enter UFC 317 with a single loss on their professional MMA records.
We look at betting odds, line movement, preview, picks, and predictions for the Talbott vs. Lima matchup on the UFC 317 fight card.
Two title fights get top billing on the UFC 317 PPV. In the main event, former UFC featherweight champ Ilia Topuria battles ex-UFC lightweight titleholder Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight strap. Meanwhile, in the co-main event, UFC flyweight kingpin Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against Kai Kara-France. UFC 317 serves as the anchor event for the 2025 edition of International Fight Week.
UFC 317 Fight Card: Payton Talbott Vs. Felipe Lima
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 17: Payton Talbott poses on the scale during the UFC 311 ceremonial ... More weigh-in at Intuit Dome on January 17, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Payton Talbott (9-1) joined the UFC in August 2023 when UFC CEO Dana White awarded him a deal for his decision win over Reyes Cortez Jr. on a Dana White's Contender Series card. With his win that night at the UFC Apex, Talbott moved to 6-0. At the time, White said, "Payton broke the record for significant strikes tonight, I think it was 145, in that ball park, I don't have the official number (145 of 282).
"This kid is an absolute predator. He keeps moving forward. He seems unfazed by by everything that happened. He plays the mental game. He's talking to his opponent… Payton hit him (Cortez) with everything tonight. Big shots, combinations, leg kicks, head kicks, you name it. He's only 24 years old.
'If this kid can keep his head together, I can't wait to see him at 27'
Talbott shined in his first three UFC bouts, picking up stoppage wins over Nick Aguirre (submission), Cameron Saaiman (TKO), and Yanis Ghemmour (KO).
In his third outing with the promotion, the UFC decided to give Talbott a test, matching him up against a veteran competitor in Raoni Barcelos.
Barcelos was a +675 betting underdog to Talbott, who was listed at -1050, at UFC 311. Barcelos picked up eight takedowns and nearly 10 minutes of control time and added two submission attempts during the matchup. Sure, Talbott had the better striking, but he had no answer for Barcelos's focus on getting the fight to the mat.
Talbott appears to be skilled and coachable. At UFC 317, he gets the opportunity to show how he has improved his overall MMA game.
Talbott does not turn 27 until September 9.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 14: Felipe Lima of Brazil prepares to face Miles Johns in a featherweight ... More fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Amalie Arena on December 14, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Felipe Lima (14-1) joined the UFC in June 2024 as a late replacement for the injured Melsik Baghdasaryan against Muhammad Naimov. Lima, a former Oktagon MMA bantamweight champ, was training for a defense of that title when he accepted the call from the UFC to compete at 145. Lima ended Naimov's six-fight winning streak via submission on that night, earning a 'Performance of the Night' bonus in the process.
Lima followed that with a December 2024 decision win over Miles Johns on the UFC Tampa card.
Lima lost his first professional fight in 2015, but the 27-year-old is undefated since then with 14 consecutive wins.
UFC 317 Fight Card Betting Lines And Movement: Payton Talbott Vs. Felipe Lima
When BetOnline first published the odds for this matchup, Lima was the -125 betting favorite over the +105 Talbott. Those odds have shifted in favor of Lima, who is now -190, while Talbott is a +165 betting underdog.
UFC 317 Fight Card Tale Of The Tape: Payton Talbott Vs. Felipe Lima
Age: 26
Height: 5' 10'
Reach: 70'
Stance: Switch
Age: 27
Height: 5'6'
Reach: 68'
Stance: Orthodox
UFC 317 Fight Card Predictions And Picks: Payton Talbott Vs. Felipe Lima
TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 14: Felipe Lima of Brazil reacts after a unanimous-decision victory ... More against Miles Johns in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Amalie Arena on December 14, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Talbott has a lot to prove on Saturday. He went from being a +1050 favorite in his last fight to a +165 underdog in this matchup because Barcelos showed that the young man was not a well-rounded competitor. It's now up to Talbott to show that he deserved the hype he had heading into that Barcelos matchup.
As for Lima, this is a fight that could allow him to steal some of the shine that Talbott had on him. Lima is a well-rounded fighter who has good wrestling and strong striking. Plus, the wins he has picked up in the UFC are better than the wins Talbott has.
From what we've seen, Lima is the better all-around fighter in this matchup, and unless Talbott has done a 180 on his grappling, Lima should get the decision win at UFC 317.
We will have more on the UFC 317 Talbott vs. Lima bout as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 317 pay-per-view card on fight night.
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