An Asteroid (Probably) Isn't Hitting Earth Any Time Soon
A few weeks ago, Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines for being surprisingly likely to hit Earth in the next several years.
After peaking at an impact likelihood of about 3%, additional data was gathered and the risk was demoted to 0.
The risk of asteroid impact can be difficult for non-experts to interpret, and can lead to exacerbated, undeserved anxiety if not properly explained.
Once, a very long time ago, a massive asteroid hit the Earth and wiped out the dinosaurs. In addition to functionally restarting land-based life on our planet and setting the stage for humans to eventually become the dominant species, that asteroid made us extremely aware of one thing—we are at risk.
As such, we're understandably worried about asteroid strike. But, for a few reasons, we probably shouldn't be as concerned as a lot of news outlets make it seem like we should be.
A few weeks ago, Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines as it became likelier and likelier that this thing would hit Earth. Scientists were watching it closely, as it's impact probability ticked up and up until it fell off a cliff back down to pretty much zero.
That peak likelihood that had everyone all in a tizzy? About 3%. This thing never had more than a 3% chance of hitting us.
That's the thing of it all: asteroids that make the news are almost never worth worrying about. Not in a real way, anyway. We keep incredibly good track of the objects in space that 1) are of a dangerous size and 2) could be on a dangerous path for us, and as a result, we are overly cautious about them in a just-in-case way that can inflate a sense of fear in those who don't know what's going on.
So, here's a little bit of an explanation for how we rank the potential threat posed by these objects. Astronomers rank danger of impact on what is known as the Torino scale. It goes from 0-10, and in general, these rankings are divided into levels of concern: 0-1 are clear or green (meaning no concern), 2-4 are yellow (meaning pay attention), 5-7 are orange (meaning concern), 8-10 are red (meaning certainty of collision).
This ranking takes into account not only the likelihood of impact, but also the level of potential damage caused by the size of the object. The highest level of concern that has been given to an object since the scale was put in place was a 4, which went to Apophis in 2004. Apophis was actually deemed less likely to hit us than 2024 YR4, but it was bigger, so it ranked higher (it has now been demoted to 0). A yellow ranking can be achieved by anything with a collision probability above 1%.
Most of the time, the 'high' impact probabilities in the 2-3% range are the result of incomplete data. That's why scientists don't worry right away when they spot these things. Almost certainly, after more observations are made, the probability will drop down to 0. And if not, we can plan for what to do next. That's why NASA's DART mission exists—if we ever have to divert an object coming our way, we're moving towards being ready to do so.
That said, there is a category of objects that cause scientists a significant amount of concern—objects coming at us from the direction of the Sun. The Sun is so bright that it blots out basically anything we could see coming our way from that direction, and we don't get the opportunity to rank its danger to us. If something big comes at us from that angle, we're at its mercy (though, experts are taking steps to hopefully mitigate that risk as well).
But, either fortunately or unfortunately (depending on how you look at it), we're probably not gonna have time to give almost anything coming from that direction a Torino ranking. So, if you're hearing a number, no need to worry yet. It's probably nothing, and if it's not, the experts are on the case.
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