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ABC News
22 minutes ago
- ABC News
Trump-Musk bromance spirals into public spat
Elon Musk receives the key to the White House from U.S. President Donald Trump during a press conference in the Oval Office at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 30, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard (Reuters: Nathan Howard)
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
Experts back NSW Premier Chris Minns' plea for cigarette tax cut despite opposition
NSW Premier Chris Minns says law-abiding citizens are being 'dragged into the black market' by the federal government's tobacco tax – and he wants that to change. Mr Minns threw down the gauntlet this week when he called for a re-evaluation of the tobacco excise, kicking-off political rows in both Sydney and Canberra. Twice yearly, the federal government sets the excise for tobacco products but in this year's budget recorded a $5.2bn decline in revenue since 2022-23. The NSW Premier has pointed the finger at illicit sales at tobacconists, some 5000 of which have opened up across NSW over the past few years. 'There's a whole bunch of law-abiding people who wouldn't break the law in a million years,' Mr Minns said. 'But, they're being dragged into a black market where they go to the store and they can either buy a $17 packet of illegal cigarettes or a $60 packet of cigarettes. 'It's a no-brainer.' Despite pushback, Mr Minns said every tax change started with 'an idea from someone who calls out a policy that's no longer fit for purpose'. 'So, let's get the ball rolling here because these illegal tobacco stores are pushing out hot bread shops, small businesses and restaurants. 'Because the sales from illegal tobacco are so lucrative, they can just pay the rent at a higher price. 'Something's gone amiss here and we need to have a crack at fixing it alongside our federal colleagues.' Mr Minns earlier signalled that police resources may have to be moved from domestic violence and organised crime to combat illicit tobacco. Mr Minns said the situation was 'intolerable', with 'every to-let shop in every high street in Sydney taken over by a tobacconist'. 'The biggest supporters of a massive excise on tobacco sales in NSW are probably organised criminals,' he said. 'It's a giant black market and major display on every street in every suburb in NSW.' No easy answers On Wednesday, federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers ruled out any change to the excise, saying making cigarettes cheaper wouldn't solve the issue of the booming illegal tobacco trade. In NSW, there are about 19,500 tobacco stores across the state – up from 14,500 a few years earlier – that are overseen by only about 30 health inspectors. A parliamentary inquiry into illicit tobacco sales, pushed for by the NSW opposition, will later this year examine which agency is best suited to the task. Until now, Liberal leader Mark Speakman has remained mum on whether NSW Police should takeover illicit tobacco enforcement from NSW Health. On Thursday, Mr Speakman said illicit tobacco had exploded under Mr Minns and organised criminal gangs were 'raking in big money'. 'They know NSW has minimal enforcement and some of the weakest penalties in the country,' Mr Speakman said. 'While other states have acted to drastically increase penalties and improve enforcement, Chris Minns has been missing in action. 'Now that the federal Treasurer has ruled out changes to the federal excise, Chris Minns needs to tell people how he is going to tackle this issue.' Under law, an individual found to be selling a prohibited tobacco product faces a maximum fine of $55,000 for a first offence. Those laws will change on July 1 when a new tobacco licensing scheme is introduced, requiring businesses to obtain a tobacco retailing licence. Businesses found to be selling tobacco products without a licence will face fines of up to $220,000 and $44,000 for an individual. Nonetheless, the issue sparked a fierce debate in NSW parliament on Wednesday between Mr Speakman and Police Minister Yasmin Catley. Asked about whether anti-gang Taskforce Falcon will expand its remit to illicit tobacco, Ms Catley struck out. 'The leader of the opposition knows that it is Health that enforce illicit tobacco. He knows that,' she said. 'And, he has come in here and has the audacity to come in here and say the police are not doing their job. Well, shame on you. Shame on you. 'NSW Police are doing absolutely everything they can and I am disgusted that the leader of the opposition could come to the NSW parliament and suggest otherwise.' For his part, NSW Health Minister Ryan Park has pointed the finger at the former Coalition government for not earlier introducing a licensing scheme. What do the experts say? Over the past six years, the duty price put on a 20-pack of cigarettes has gone up by about 75 per cent – from $16 to $28. As a result, the price of a packet at the counter sits about $40-50, with the cheapest little more than $30. Illicit cigarettes, meanwhile, cost about $13-15 per 20-pack and up to $20 for premium brands. University of Sydney School of Public Health researcher Edward Jegasothy supported Mr Minns' comments on the tobacco excise. He said there was no solution to the prevalence of illicit tobacco without a re-examination of the 'punitive' policy. 'There's really no ethical basis for the policy because it's essentially just a punitive policy attack on the poor,' he said. Mr Jegasothy said the policy had failed to demonstrate any 'meaningful health benefits and certainly no equitable health benefits'. 'I can't see a solution that doesn't have involve bringing down the tax,' he said. 'It has to be part of the solution … because it is essentially putting more holes in the bottom of the boat.' Mr Jegasothy said the belief that the excise, in increasing the cost of cigarettes, would reduce rates of smoking 'didn't hold water'. With rates of smoking higher among poor and marginalised groups, he instead encouraged solutions that addressed the root causes, 'which is largely poverty'. He urged for a review of the excise as a public health policy, including up until the explosion of black market sales in the early 2020s. That explosion, Mr Jegasothy suggested, came as a result of a combination of factors, including the cumulative impact of the excise and a tightening on loose leaf tobacco. The Australian Association of Convenience Stores has also backed Mr Minns' call for a rethink of the tobacco excise. Chief executive Theo Foukkare said it was 'extraordinary that it's gotten to this point'. 'Tobacco is a price-sensitive consumer product,' he said. 'If you put a price on it that is manifestly higher than what people can afford, they'll find a cheaper alternative and that's where this incredibly dangerous black market is cashing in – and even worse, they're using that money to fund the most atrocious crimes.' What about other states? NSW is far from the only state or territory in Australia where the issue of illicit tobacco has become a hot-button topic in recent years. In Victoria, police have continuingly battled the so-called tobacco wars, conflict between organised crime groups during which stores have been burned. According to Victoria Police, there were about 1300 stand-alone tobacco stores in the state – of these, 1000 sell some kind of illicit tobacco. From July 1, business caught possessing or selling an illicit tobacco product in Victoria face fines of up to $1.7m. For an individual, that penalty is about $830,000 or 15 years in prison. Further north, Queensland Health seized more than 15.2 million illicit cigarettes worth $12.2m across the state between July 1, 2024 and February 28, 2025. Mr Jegasothy said outside of NSW and Victoria, there was little publicly available information about the prevalence of illicit tobacco.
ABC News
10 hours ago
- ABC News
The US dollar's demise has consequences for Australia
"I'll tell you, he's not the first," Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. The US president was referring to Elon Musk's personal attacks towards himself on social media after being asked to leave his administration. "People leave my administration — and they love us — and then, at some point, they miss it so badly, and some of them embrace it, and some actually become hostile." This sort of language could be perceived as unpresidential. As is the phrasing of Trump's so-called "Big Beautiful Bill" — the name given to Trump's budget reconciliation bill that's expected to lead to both a lower tax take, and an increase in the US debt ceiling. It was perhaps, though, the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs that did the most damage to the Trump administration's reputation within the finance community. Combined, it's led the financial community to question the stewardship of the US economy. And that has important implications for all Australians. It's impossible to dig into every confusing hole of US public policy that's produced anxiety in financial markets. Instead, let's focus on one word that's continuing to unsettle global investors which, in turn, could be hurting the reputation of the world's largest economy. It's "uncertainty". As one trader put it to me this week: "It's like investors are parked on the side of the road waiting patiently, in the cold, for the fog to lift from the highway." AMP's Shane Oliver helps manage billions of dollars for the superannuation giant. "President Trump's tariffs remain a source of ongoing uncertainty," he says. Just in the last two weeks, Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on smart phones and threatened a 50 per cent tariff on European goods from June, then delayed it until July 9. And this is where concerns around the US dollar's longer-term trajectory come in. The US dollar is inextricably linked to the quality of the US government debt. Oliver is concerned the US government is careening toward a debt crisis. "Higher bond yields since the pandemic have pushed US federal interest payments to a record 18 per cent of tax revenue," he says. Higher US government bond yields, or debt, points to rising nerves about the US government's fiscal position. The US dollar index, which is a measure of the US dollar's value against a basket of currencies, hit a three-year low this week If, as Oliver suggests, the US dollar is losing its post-World War II safe haven status, it will continue to decline in value. "It's possible that the US dollar is losing its 'safe haven' status that could see it fall rather than go up in a crisis." Oliver is referring here to the potential for a US debt crisis. "This means the Australian dollar may behave a bit less as a shock absorber in a crisis by not falling as much as would normally be the case," he says. "Time will tell, but if this is the case then more of the burden could fall on the RBA to help protect the economy in rough times by cutting interest rates by more." This is potentially a double win for many Australians. It could make overseas travel less expensive as the Australian dollar appreciates against the greenback. There could also be further relief for mortgage borrowers as the Reserve Bank lowers interest rates to counterbalance rising global interest rates. But it would be a blow for export-exposed industries, who are hit with a potential double-whammy of falling global demand and a less competitive exchange rate. Others view the US economy, and its international reputation as largely untouchable. "I cannot see a world where the US dollar is not the reserve currency of global flows," Jamieson Coote Bond's James Wilson says. However, as InTouch Capital Markets senior analyst Sean Callow points out, other currencies like the yuan and the euro are keen to move towards the top of the currency podium. "The greenback seems likely to remain dominant in global trade in commodities and many financial contracts, where deep market liquidity is precious," Callow says. "But just as the US relationship with Europe will probably never be the same, the euro is becoming more attractive as a reserve currency, largely at the dollar's expense." It's a rocky road for global financial markets and most are treading very carefully. The uncertainty stems from US economic policy confusion and chaos, which may not go unpunished by investors. Though there is potential for significant upsides for many Australians.
