Auto dealers, UAW local leaders brace for layoffs amid tariff war: ‘Writing's on the wall'

USA Today

30-03-2025

Auto dealers, UAW local leaders brace for layoffs amid tariff war: 'Writing's on the wall'
Show Caption
Hide Caption
The impact and history of autos in Detroit, The Motor City
Here are some facts about Detroit's auto industry.
Consumer confidence has weakened, impacting car sales, as buyers grapple with potential price hikes and broader economic anxieties.
Inventory levels are elevated at many dealerships, reflecting a slowdown in sales and a decrease in lease returns.
While some industry experts believe car sales will persevere, others warn of production disruptions, price increases and potential layoffs if tariffs persist.
Ford dealer Jim Seavitt has an uneasy feeling in the pit of his stomach these days that's reminiscent of how he felt about 17 years ago.
"We're down 50% in leads. Everything's off 40% to 50%. People just aren't looking at cars right now," Seavitt, who owns Village Ford in Dearborn, Michigan, told the Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network. "It reminds me of 2008 when the mortgage crisis hit. It's looking like it's the starting of a crisis. This whole uneasy feeling right now."
Seavitt was referring to the start of the Great Recession in 2008. His disquiet is shared across the industry. Many UAW local leaders at Ford Motor Co. and General Motors plants around the U.S. told the Free Press they are concerned that the tariff war will disrupt production. That, combined with volatile auto sales due to consumer uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's policies and their potential effects on the broad economy, including a plummeting stock market, will all inevitably lead to layoffs. Some local union leaders are even advising members to start saving their money.
"I am concerned about manufacturing as a whole this year because people can't afford to buy groceries, so people aren't going to buy a $70,000 car," said a local UAW leader. "I am telling my people to start saving their money. Dealers are down 50% on sales and inventory is stacking up. I think manufacturing as a whole this year will be down."
This union leader, like the others who will speak in this article, asked to not be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly on such sensitive topics as politics, tariffs and the economy.
Automotive industry news: Auto tariffs can't realistically stick, even as Trump calls them permanent, say analysts
A struggling factory sector, lower optimism
Some industry watchers believe people will always need new transportation, and if they can find deals, car sales will carry on despite the cost of eggs.
But some signs point to a factory sector that is struggling to adjust to Trump's rapid rollout of tariffs on a growing group of imported goods. According to the Empire State manufacturing index conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, factory activity in New York state plummeted this month by the most it has in nearly two years. The study, seen as an indicator for the broad U.S. economy, showed that firms are increasingly less optimistic.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York wrote in the study: "Employment levels and hours worked continued to move slightly lower. Input prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two years, and selling price increases also continued to pick up. Optimism about the outlook waned considerably for a second consecutive month."
The UAW leader doesn't need a study to tell him what he sees when he regularly walks the factory floor. His members are worried. They approach him with fears that a shift will be eliminated, which would mean layoffs. He said he reassures his members that tariffs can redirect manufacturing to the United States, which would be a good thing.
But he's also realistic. Building a new factory takes billions of dollars and several years. Ford CEO Jim Farley told investors last month that even though carmakers are seeing 'a lot of cost and a lot of chaos' from Trump's tariff threats, Ford will not be building new plants in the United States any time soon.
Right now, labor costs amount to about 4% of the price of a vehicle, but adding more U.S. labor to production could raise that by 2%, this union leader said. The added costs, whether it be higher-priced U.S. labor or added tariffs, could mean higher new car prices at a time when affordability is already a problem for many consumers.
Cost of vehicles: Trump announces 25% auto tariffs. What it means for your next car purchase
'The writing's on the wall'
Here's where tariffs stand: Trump has increased tariffs on goods imported from China to 20%. He has imposed tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods but has exempted auto industry companies that are compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement from the tariffs until April 2.
Earlier this month, he announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, which will impact carmakers. Many countries have responded by imposing retaliatory tariffs on goods coming from the United States.
A tariff is a tax that an importer pays on a good when it crosses international borders. Carmakers buy many parts from suppliers in other countries. They must now pay the increased levy on those parts for use in the vehicles they assemble in the United States or find a way to get them domestically, if possible, to avoid the tariff. But Trump has issued so many stops-and-starts to the tariff war since Feb. 1 that it has left many local union leaders, car dealers and automakers at a loss for how to plan.
Last week, S&P Global Mobility put the probability of the auto industry experiencing an extended disruption period from the tariffs already in place at a startling 50%. That would mean several vehicle models will cease production, new vehicle prices would have to rise and product development delays could impact production for some years to come. Based on the tariffs in place so far, S&P Global gave the industry one week before production starts dropping off at a whopping 20,000 vehicles per day.
The uncertainty has shaken the broad economy. Since Trump took office, the S&P 500 has lost some $4 trillion, according to Reuters. The S&P 500 has typically soared above the stock indexes of other countries for years, but it is now trailing major markets in Europe and China, as investors have reallocated money from the United States to other indexes, according to The New York Times. Since Trump's inauguration, the S&P 500 has plummeted more than 6%, while the Dax index in Germany has risen 10% and the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has gained more than 4%.
Ultimately, local union leaders and Detroit car dealers believe it comes down to what's happening in the showroom.
"The consumer is the one who predicts layoffs," the union leader said, adding, "The writing's on the wall."
Big job cuts and where sales stand
Other global tremors add to the anxiety stateside. On Monday, Volkswagen announced it would cut 7,500 jobs at its luxury brand Audi in Germany by 2029 because of "immense challenges" as Germany's auto industry deals with a slowing demand for electric vehicles and rising Chinese competition, according to Reuters.
Moody's analysts said the cuts reflect the broader challenges facing the global auto industry.
'This move underscores the pressure traditional automakers face from the need for significant investments in electrification and the rapid rise of Chinese auto manufacturers, which are taking increasing amounts of global market share," said Michael Brisson, auto economist at Moody's Analytics, in an email. "Additionally, with potential tariffs looming from the U.S. in the coming months, automakers are bracing for further market uncertainties.'
Data showed that new vehicle sales in the first part of this year have held up nationwide on the momentum from a strong fourth quarter. But sales are slowing, said Mark Schirmer, director of industry insights and corporate communications at Cox Automotive.
"Our team is seeing a slowdown from that point as consumer sentiment softens and there is growing uncertainty about the economy," Schirmer said. "Ford's days' supply has been elevated of late ‒ with the industry it improved through February ‒ but Ford is definitely carrying a lot of inventory ‒ 126 days' supply in our end of February measure."
Ford pulled back on incentives the first two months of the year, which served to boost dealer inventory, Schirmer said. But, overall, the average inventory across the industry is elevated at 89 days. It is down slightly from January, but a healthy industry average is 60 days' supply.
The Asian brands, however, continue to have fast-turning, low inventory, said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power. He said, nationally, retail auto sales held up in February and are poised to finish March about 14% higher than the year before.
'We're not seeing a lot of stress in the system as of yet from anything," Jominy said, but he added that "there is a drought of lease returns."
Jominy said the industry has prepared for that situation with leases. Still, he said, dealers love leases because they bring customers back in to possibly buy another car.
"So the absence of that means you have to work a little bit harder to move vehicles," Jominy said. "Detroit is one of the strongest leasing markets in the country, so they might be feeling that."
'Daily chaos in Washington' impacts consumer sentiment
Cox reported fleet sales were soft in February while retail sales held up reasonably well, even though consumer confidence fell notably in February as worries about the economy took hold.
"The daily chaos from Washington has been negatively impacting consumer sentiment and likely contributed to lackluster consumer spending in February," said Cox Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. "The biggest worry I have for the spring continues to be the trend we've seen in interest rates, which moved higher in February.'
Smoke said consumer confidence is a key measure closely tied to auto sales. With trade and tariffs dominating the news through February, some car buyers likely decided to purchase before higher prices set in, he said. Others may have decided to sideline any big-ticket purchases over worries about broader inflationary risks.
According to Edmunds.com data, the average transaction price for a new car in February was $49,350, down from $50,103 in January, but well above the year-ago figure of $48,606.
"The trajectory was good for customers a few months ago, but discounts might be troughing out," said Ivan Drury, director of Insights at Edmunds.com. "Ditto on new vehicle lease penetration rates. Midyear 2024, we were seeing signs of life with leasing back up to 25%, but lately that figure is backing down closer to 22%, as I suspect the drop-off in repeat customers is taking a toll along with fewer lease deals."
'This is a real threat'
At Matick Automotive Group, partner Paul Zimmermann said sales in February were slow, but in the last couple of weeks it has picked up. The group owns Michigan dealerships, including Matick Chevrolet in Redford Township, Matick Buick-GMC in Southfield and Matick Toyota in Macomb.
Zimmermann credits the uptick to consumers buying to get ahead of potentially higher prices if Trump enacts 25% tariffs on auto parts and vehicles that cross the Canada and Mexico borders on April 2. Zimmermann said he worries about the uncertain economy only to the point of what he can control.
"We try to stock up on used (vehicles)," Zimmermann said. "We've had meetings with our sales staff and sales managers about making sure when you talk to a customer that you convey, 'This is a real threat, we don't know for sure, but you might want to take into consideration in your decision matrix that 30, 40, 50 days out, the price could be a lot more if tariffs take effect.' "
His day supply of vehicles is healthy across the brands he sells at about 50 days or less, so Zimmermann has no plans to cut jobs. But he admits, "Telling folks to save money, in our industry, we'd be negligent if we didn't coach folks on that because it's so cyclical."
Hoping it doesn't get 'uglier'
Across town at Village Ford, inventory is at a 90-day supply. But despite sluggish sales, Seavitt said he won't eliminate jobs.
"I won't let anyone go. I'll pay them what I have to pay them," Seavitt said. "I went through COVID and I never laid anybody off."
Part of the sales slowdown can be blamed on a lack of lease returns given that many people purchased their car off lease back in COVID-19. So those people are not coming in for a new lease or purchase.
"Instead of having 100 returnees that I normally would, I only had about 55 last month and again this month. It's been that way since November," Seavitt said.
Another challenge has been losing the Ford Edge, which was a big seller for him, Seavitt said. Ford stopped production of the Edge in April last year. The hot seller now is the Mustang Mach-E, which Ford builds in Mexico. Ford is offering good deals on the EV, Seavitt said. The problem is getting them.
"Everybody's out of them," Seavitt said. "We're trying to buy them from out of state. The 2025s aren't flowing yet. Almost every dealer is out of them."
Seavitt had hoped the tariffs would work in his favor by prompting car buyers to get vehicles now before prices potentially rise. But the economic uncertainty and the stock market volatility could be contributing to the lackluster sales, he said. Last month, the store sold 140 new cars, down from the 200 it usually sells. In used cars, it sold 47, down from the typical 80 sold. Seavitt said used car sales are picking up this month and he expects to sell 75 to 80.
Still, he worries.
'I'm concerned. I'm concerned about the economy, the market. Most of my people have 401(k)s and they're getting hurt. My salesmen, I hope they saved money. Parts and Service is doing well," Seavitt said. "The No. 1 problem with cars ‒ last June before all this crap started ‒ was affordability. I hope it doesn't get uglier."
Local UAW leaders' concern
Inside the factories, a few of the union leaders the Free Press spoke to agreed it felt reminiscent of 2008 with the start of the Great Recession.
"I think there's a fear amongst all leadership based on what we've seen here in the first two months of the (Trump) administration and, obviously, the stock market plunging like I've never seen it before," said a local UAW leader who asked to not be named due to the sensitivity of this topic. "Everything they're doing is so radical. It almost appears as though the decisions they're making is to put us into some sort of a recession. So there's a concern among the leadership. Anytime we get into a recession, sales go down and that results in layoffs."
Despite his view, the UAW International has come out in support of tariffs, believing the duties will benefit U.S. workers.
"Corporations have been driving a nonstop race to the bottom by killing good blue-collar jobs in America to go exploit some poor worker in another country by paying poverty wages," the union said in a statement earlier this month. "Tariffs are a powerful tool in the toolbox for undoing the injustice of antiworker trade deals. We are glad to see an American president take aggressive action on ending the free trade disaster that has dropped like a bomb on the working class."
The union said it is in active talks with the Trump administration to end the "free trade disaster."
Indeed, some local UAW leaders are less concerned about job losses from tariffs than others ‒ depending on what vehicle their plant builds. Also, some are quiet for the moment and are not warning workers to save money because they don't want to provoke panic.
One UAW leader told the Free Press that his counterparts at plants that make EVs are much more nervous about their near-term future than he is about his plant, which builds gasoline-powered top-selling trucks. Trump campaigned on a promise to roll back many parts of the Inflation Reduction Act that incentivized EV sales.
But the uncertainty around tariffs and the stock market's plunge give all of them some level of pause. Outside of a potential recession, the reality of prolonged tariffs could mean automakers must halt production to find new, cheaper parts stateside or because vehicles with the now more pricey parts just aren't selling. Any production pauses point to layoffs.
"In 2008, we made it through that (recession) without any involuntary layoffs. We worked really hard with the company and the union on work schedules," said the one UAW leader. "We had temporary layoffs here and there, but they were all voluntary. So nobody hit the streets involuntarily. I don't know if we can pull that off again."
Jamie L. LaReau is the senior autos writer who covers Ford Motor Co. for the Detroit Free Press. Contact Jamie at [e-mail]. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. To sign up for our autos newsletter, become a subscriber.