Canada election results: One in six seats changed parties
While the government of Canada may not have changed hands, the federal election results are anything but business as usual.Party leaders lost their own seats, the New Democratic Party (NDP) now faces the possibility of life on the sidelines and the Liberal Party pulled off a dramatic turnaround in fortunes, all while led by a prime minister who wasn't even a member of Parliament (MP).Preliminary results from Elections Canada show that 17% of seats - 59 out of 343 - changed hands in this election, up from just 7% - 22 out of 338 - in 2021.
The rise in the number of available seats in the House of Commons, from 338 to 343, reflects a new political map which accounts for changes in population.Leaders from three of the five parties represented in the House of Commons failed to win their seats.Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre - who was on course to become prime minister three months ago when his party held a double-digit lead in the polls - lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario to the Liberals.Jagmeet Singh resigned as NDP leader after finishing third in his British Columbia seat of Burnaby Central, while the Green Party's co-leader Jonathan Pedneault came fifth in Outremont, Quebec.Only Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois and Elizabeth May, the other Green co-leader, retained their seats while Mark Carney became an MP for the first time.
All 59 seats that flipped went to either the Liberals or Conservatives.The NDP lost 17 of the 24 seats they were defending - 10 to the Conservatives and seven to the Liberals - and fell short of the 12 seats required for official party status.This means the loss of parliamentary funding for things like office budgets and technology equipment, as well as fewer chances to ask questions of the government and sit on committees.NDP losses were part of a wider shift away from Canada's smaller parties.The Bloc Québécois had 35 seats going into Monday's vote, taking into consideration the impact of boundary changes on 2021 results - calculated by Elections Canada - and last year's victory in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election.It lost 13 of them in Quebec, with all but one going to the Liberals.Terrebonne, a suburb of Montreal, flipped from the Bloc to the Liberals by just a few dozen votes.Meanwhile, the Greens lost their Kitchener Centre riding, the first Ontario seat in their history, to the Liberals.
Despite making overall gains it was still a turbulent night for incumbents in the two largest parties.The Liberals gave up 16 seats - all to the Conservatives - which was twice as many as the eight they lost in 2021.Nine of the 16 losses came in Toronto and the surrounding "905" - places that all share the same area code.The Conservatives saw 12 of their MPs suffer defeat including Poilievre, up from nine four years ago.All 12 were won by Liberals, including Toronto St Paul's which the Conservatives previously flipped in a 2024 by-election.
RESULTS: How Canada voted - in chartsANALYSIS: Why Carney's Liberals won - and the Conservatives lostWATCH: How Canada's election night unfoldedPROFILE: Who is Mark Carney, Canada's new PM?VOTERS: How I decided who gets my voteUS VIEW: A turnaround victory made possible by Trump
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New Statesman
2 hours ago
- New Statesman
Rachel Reeves' economic credibility is on the line
Photo byIt's Spending Review day, when Rachel Reeves gets to set departmental budgets for much of the rest of the parliament. The Chancellor's balancing act – ensuring public services have the day-to-day funds they need and are able to fulfil Labour's missions, without breaking her tax pledges or her 'ironclad' fiscal rules – is an unenviable one. George Eaton has already written this week on how Reeves intends to rebut the twin accusations that the government is embarking upon austerity 2.0 and that Labour is losing its grip on the purse strings. Today, Reeves will try to frame her stance – maintaining her fiscal rules while boosting overall spending by £300bn – around a pledge to 'invest in Britain's renewal'. 'In place of chaos, I choose stability. In place of decline, I choose investment,' she will say (with an accompanying promise of £39bn for a new Affordable Homes Programme over the next decade). It's a dangerous moment for Reeves: while the chatter about the precarity of her position at the start of the year has simmered down, there is real dismay within Labour at some of the Chancellor's choices, and her name is one of those most cited as patience begins to wear thin. We'll find out later this afternoon if Reeves can pull it off, but rather than speculating on what we might hear in a few hours' time, let's zoom out and examine the wider context. While Spending Reviews are always important, this one comes at a particularly critical time. Less than a year since winning a landslide victory, Labour's popularity has plummeted. Though the Conservatives remain in disarray, Reform has leapfrogged both mainstream parties to top the polls, with Nigel Farage presenting himself a realistic alternative prime minister. One of the key attack lines against Reform used by both Labour and the Tories has concerned economic credibility. Last month, Farage announced the outlines of Reform's economic programme, which consisted of lots of popular but expensive policies (slashing taxes while restoring the winter fuel allowance and scrapping the two-child benefit cap) with little word on how to pay for them. According to the IFS there is an estimated £80bn black hole in the plans. Cue accusations of 'fantasy economics' – or, as the Liberal Democrats pithily put it, 'Trussonomics on steroids'. The Farage-as-Truss comparison is one Keir Starmer has been hammering at PMQs. Unfortunately, the public do not seem to be buying it. New polling from More In Common ahead of the Spending Review contains much to terrify Downing Street, but most disturbing is surely the revelation that Reform and Labour are neck-and-neck on who the public trust most on the economy (on 22 per cent each) – with Starmer and Farage virtually tied in a head-to-head (51 per cent to 49 per cent, in Starmer's favour). Why isn't the Truss attack, which proved so effective at skewering the Tories (resentment over the mini-Budget still comes up on the doorstep), not working against Reform? One reason may be down to what people actually think happened back in October 2022. While there is widespread belief that 'Liz Truss crashed the economy', drill down in focus groups and you'll find people are far hazier on how exactly she managed to do so. 'They associate her with being shit but they don't know why,' as one pollster put it. And her failure is very much associated with the Tories. Farage could promise to do exactly what Truss did (his unfunded tax cuts are definitely comparable) and still skirt the toxicity associated with her. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe There are other worrying insights in the More In Common polling – for Labour, the Tories, and anyone else who values a stable a economy. While 46 per cent of people believe Reform would indeed be a risk to the economy (compared to 29 per cent who don't), almost as many (40 per cent) believe the risk is worth it as 'Reform can't be any worse than other parties when it comes to managing the economy'. This is Farage's argument any time he's called out on his party's dodgy figures (such as in Wales on Monday), pointing to the Conservatives' economic record and Labour's current struggles, with the implicit message 'how much worse could Reform be?' There is an answer to that, and it's one that gives economists nightmares. But both Labour and the Tories need to find a way to tell it compellingly if they are to win on this key battleground. Two other nuggets stand out. First, on economic credibility, the Tories are actually going backwards, with a decline in how much people trust them on a range of economic metrics since March. (Reform has increased trust on all metrics, while Labour is a mixed bag.) Most of the polling will have taken place before Mel Stride made his speech disavowing the Truss era. It's an apology which many Tories believe should have come much sooner. Second, while people want an improvement in public services, there is little appetite for tax rises. The public seem to believe the progress they want can all be funded by that elusive ambition of cutting 'waste' – almost half of Brits (44 per cent) think the government could cut one fifth of government spending without damaging the economy or reducing the quality of public services. This is essentially Reform's argument, with its Musk-inspired DOGE initiative. If it were that easy, previous governments might have tried it. All of which paints Reeves into a corner, at a time when the government's economic credibility – and its wider political reputation – is at stake. The Chancellor needs to make the case for her fiscal rules to an audience that doesn't really understand why they're necessary. That's what her lines about 'stability' over 'chaos' are all about. And she must find a way to present her prioritisation of capital spending over day-to-day budgets not as austerity, but as investing in the future. It's the kind of challenge that requires not just a rock-solid grasp of the figures but a laser-like comms operation. Good luck, Rachel Reeves. [See more: Labour is losing Wales] Related
BBC News
10 hours ago
- BBC News
Spending review: New stations in £445m rail plan for Wales
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will use her spending review on Wednesday to announce £445m for new rail projects in north and south details are expected on Wednesday, but plans for five new stations in Cardiff, Newport and Monmouthshire, as well as upgrades in north Wales, are on the follows years of complaints of underinvestment in the Welsh railway Treasury said the package had "the potential to be truly transformative". But the Conservatives criticised the lack of support for a new M4 relief road, while Plaid Cymru said the cash was "merely a drop in the ocean compared to the billions Wales is owed". The spending review will set out Reeves' plans for how public services will be funded for years to was not clear on Tuesday evening what the impact of the announcement might be for the Welsh government's day to day spending, with cuts to budgets other than health, schools and defence Wales gets to spend is determined by a calculation based on how England-only departments - such as health and local government - are follows weeks of rows between Welsh and Westminster Labour, as concerns grew over the next Senedd election as polling suggested the party could lose its dominant role in Welsh politics. According to the Treasury, the £445m will be spent on fixing level crossings, building new stations and upgrading existing lines, and is a combination of direct funding and cash for the Welsh said it was the "cornerstone of the UK government's plan to address decades of underinvestment in critical infrastructure that has held back the Welsh economy".Rail funding has become a totemic issue in Welsh politics, with the lack of knock-on funding for Wales from High Speed 2 repeatedly raised with the First Minister Eluned first minister has publicly called for more rail spending from the UK government - one of a list of calls she has made on Sir Keir Starmer in recent say if High Speed 2 had not been classified as an England and Wales project, Wales would be owed between £431m - according to finance secretary Mark Drakeford - or multiple billions, according to Plaid Cymru and previous sums used by senior Labour figures including Welsh Secretary Jo extra money is not connected to HS2, although Labour was keen to make a symbolic sources, and former transport minister Lee Waters, said the sum is more than Wales would have had from the high speed rail project. Welsh Transport Secretary Ken Skates and others have lobbied the UK government figures on a range of projects recommended by transport reviews looking at north and south include new stations at Cardiff East, near the city's Newport Road, and in the west of are hopes for a station in the eastern Newport suburbs of Somerton and Llanwern, and one that will serve the Monmouthshire villages of Magor and Undy, along with improvements to the mainline to allow local services to stations were proposed by a review to boost rail transport in a region that has seen an increase in house building in recent years, but is connected via the congested M4 motorway and has a limited local railway work is estimated to cost £ north Wales, the Welsh government has been pushing for work on the Wrexham to Liverpool route to enable metro-style services, and upgrades on the north Wales mainline to boost the frequency of also wants to commence development work to increase capacity at Chester - a hub for trains from north Wales. Rachel Reeves could also commit more funding to help make coal tips in Wales first minister has previously said that £25m allocated to Wales at last year's October budget was not enough. Looking ahead to the next Senedd election, a senior Labour figure said: "Labour's delivered what the Tories wouldn't, what Plaid can't and what Reform have no interest in."Former transport minister Lee Waters said: "Civil servants calculated that we lost out £431m in Barnett formula funding by the way the high-speed rail project was categorised by the Treasury. This £445 million makes good on that."We will have to wait to see what exact schemes the Chancellor is agreeing to but that figure would allow the priority schemes that the Welsh government and the UK Department of Transport had been working on to go ahead."Taken together this is a very significant package of rail investment, much more than we ever got from the Tories, and will make a real difference to people."We now need to make sure we get a change to how funding works for rail so that this is the beginning of a pipeline of investment into the future"Another Labour source said the "historic investment" was down to the "work of the Welsh Secretary, Jo Stevens, who has delivered Labour's promise to right the chronic underfunding of Welsh rail by the Tories". Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar called it a "kick in the teeth", complaining of no extra cash to enable an M4 relief road or for upgrades to the A55 and A40 trunk roads."The promised rail investment falls well short of the £1bn plus in rail funding planned by the previous UK Conservative government for the electrification of the North Wales line."Plaid Cymru's finance spokesperson Heledd Fychan said: "£445m is merely a drop in the ocean compared to the billions Wales is owed on rail, and what Labour – up until they came into power – used to agree with us on."The people of Wales have seen this injustice for what it is – Wales being short-changed by successive Westminster governments. This announcement won't change that."Additional reporting by Gareth Lewis
Leader Live
12 hours ago
- Leader Live
Welsh FM accused of doing ‘nothing' to protect pensioners from winter fuel cut
Darren Millar, leader of the Welsh Conservatives, called for Eluned Morgan to apologise to the pensioners affected by the change last winter, arguing the Welsh Government should have stepped in to support those in need. Speaking during First Minister's Questions on Tuesday, Mr Millar said the cut had forced vulnerable people to choose between heating and eating. Baroness Morgan, leader of the Welsh Labour Government, said she was 'absolutely delighted' that the UK Government had reversed the cut for many. The payment, worth up to £300, will be restored to the vast majority of pensioners, with anyone with an income of under £35,000 a year now getting the payment automatically. The decision last July to restrict the winter fuel payment to the poorest pensioners was intended to save around £1.5 billion a year, with more than nine million people who would have previously been eligible losing out. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, announced the partial U-turn on Monday, following significant backlash from charities, opposition MPs and the Government's own backbenchers. Speaking in the Senedd, Mr Millar said: 'Yesterday we saw a screeching U-turn on the winter fuel allowance by Rachel Reeves, after considerable pressure from the Conservative Party. 'You will know that over half a million Welsh pensioners were deprived of their winter fuel payments last year, leaving some very vulnerable people with the unenvious choice of having to choose between heating and eating – it's an absolute disgrace. 'You are meant to stand up for Wales but what did you actually do in terms of this winter fuel allowance? You did absolutely nothing.' Mr Millar argued Baroness Morgan should have implemented a Welsh winter fuel payment or stood up to Sir Keir Starmer and demanded the payment be restored sooner. Baroness Morgan responded that she was 'absolutely delighted' that Sir Keir Starmer had listened to pensioners in Wales and across the country. 'I'm really pleased that because we have made representations to the Prime Minister on this issue that he has changed his mind and that will make a difference to hundreds of thousands of pensioners across Wales this winter, in a country where we do have more older people and housing which is more difficult to heat. 'I don't think that it's bad to listen to people and then to make sure that you respond to them.' Baroness Morgan had previously pushed back against the cut, having called for a 'rethink' in early May, saying it was something 'that comes up time and again'. At the time, the Government said there would 'not be a change to the Government's policy'. On Monday, Ms Reeves suggested that the 'stability we've brought back to the economy' meant the Government was able to change the eligibility threshold for winter fuel payments.
